North Carolina and 10 Teams on the Rise in 2010-11
Ever since the NBA instituted its policy that mandated draft prospects must be at least one year removed from high school in 2006, the college basketball landscape has been dominated by the one-and-done player. These players show up at a major college, usually do incredibly well, and then bolt to the NBA as soon as possible. Like it or not, this recent facet of the game is here to stay.
Before, there were not many players who elected to come to college and stay for only one season. Carmelo Anthony is really the only player that jumps to most people's minds. However, since 2006, we've seen Kevin Durant and Greg Oden in 2007, Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley in 2008, Tyreke Evans and Jonny Flynn in 2009, and John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins last year.
All of these one-and-dones make it incredibly difficult to gauge what players who show up at a Duke, Kentucky, or Kansas, will be at school for more than a season or two, making long term projections of a school's success pretty hard.
That being said, your's truly is going to make an effort at deciding which teams have a bright future this season and in the next couple seasons. Keep in mind that I am only choosing teams that did not make the NCAA tournament last season.
The good news is that the majority of the high-profile recruits for the 2011 class have already signed on the dotted line. I'll also be factoring in the youth of the current club and the likelihood a star player may declare early for the NBA Draft.
Side Note
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It would be absolutely foolish not to mention the current condition of the NBA's future in attempting to predict who's going to stay and who will declare early.
For those of you who do not pay attention to the NBA, it is widely believed that after this current season wraps up, there will be a lockout similar to the one that occurred a little over a decade ago.
It is uncertain as to whether this will be a season-long work stoppage, a la what happened to the NHL a few years back, or if there will end up being a strike-shortened season. I would guess that due to David Stern not wanting to go through what the NHL went through when its strike took up the entire season (a loss in popularity so great that it is only now starting to make its way back into the mainstream), Stern will make sure the lockout does not take up an entire year.
Now, how exactly does this impact the college game? With the possibility of a lockout, it may make players who would normally declare for the NBA draft immediately, decide to return to school. It's not like they're paying tuition or anything in the first place, and if they were to leave only for the NBA to lose its season, then that's an entire year that these college kids wasted. Sure there is Europe, but that journey isn't meant for everyone (just look up Jeremy Tyler for evidence).
My guess is that there won't be nearly as many one-and-done players this season as there have been in the past. I have no idea who exactly will stay, but I will be going on the assumption that unless a player goes absolutely nuts this season or is regarded as a surefire lottery pick, that player will return to improve his draft stock and not risk being out of basketball for a year.
10. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
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It's been quite awhile since Rutgers was any good. The Scarlet Knights haven't had a winning season since the 2005-06 year when they went 19-14 and lost in the second round of the NIT.
This may be changing faster than most people think. New coach Mike Rice has done wonders on the recruiting circle in an incredibly short amount of time. Currently, Rutgers has the 13th best recruiting class, with seven players coming in next season.
The class is led by the inside-out duo of point guard Myles Mack, the 85th ranked player on the ESPNU 100, and big man Kadeem Jack, one of the best junior-college prospects in the country. These two, along with a balanced supporting class, will provide stability and talent that's been lacking for years.
The current roster is relatively young with only four upperclassmen (all seniors) playing significantly. Two freshmen, Mike Poole and Gilvydas Biruta, are playing big minutes, with sophomore Dane Miller averaging double figures.
Combine the current youth's success with a recruiting class loaded with solid players at each position and this team rebuilding process will not take very long. Don't be surprised if they're a tournament team next season.
9. UCLA Bruins
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It's been tough to be a fan of the Bruins. Last year, UCLA finished below .500 for the first time under coach Ben Howland since his first season. This year doesn't look much better with a 4-4 record.
Have faith, though, for this team is on its way back to dominance.
While the Bruins are only bringing in one recruit next season in shooting guard Norman Powell (Top 50 player), this team has no seniors on its roster. Also, it's two leading scorers are both sophomores in Reeves Nelson and Tyler Honeycutt, neither of which I expect to see declaring for the NBA Draft.
Freshman center Josh Smith is a bit frustrating to watch with his weight and inexperience, but he was one of the best prep centers in the country last season for good reason. If he's able to lose some weight and stay on the floor enough to get good experience, he'll be a force for the coming seasons
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8. Washington State Cougars
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While the Cougars didn't do terribly last season, finishing a respectable 16-15, a similar record for the next couple seasons should be viewed as an utter disappointment.
Currently WSU is 7-1 with its only loss being against No. 5 Kansas State and only by five points (63-58). The Cougars beat Gonzaga by over 20 and with the Pac-10 still being down this season, it wouldn't be a shock to see this team contend for the conference title and an NCAA bid.
One of the main reasons is they have arguably the best player in the Pac-10 in Klay Thompson. Thompson is having an outstanding season so far averaging 21 points, five assists, and four rebounds while shooting 50 percent from the field. Against Gonzaga, he put up 24 points, six rebounds, six assists, and seven steals on 8 of 14 shooting. Keep in mind that Klay is only a junior. I'm not sure if he'll declare early, but right now I would say he's likely to stay.
In fact, this Cougar team has no seniors. While their recruiting class has no big names, bringing back the entire roster from a team projected to be contenders this year only means that this team will only be getting better for the next couple seasons.
7. LSU Tigers
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Going 11-20 and 2-14 in the SEC last season means one thing: the situation can't get much worse.
Such is the case for LSU, which had one of the worst seasons in the program's history last year. Losing the top two scorers isn't helping this season, though the Tigers have started with a 6-2 record (no significant victories).
The top two scorers now are both freshmen guards in Andre Stringer and Ralston Turner, which is never a bad thing when talking about the future. Also, the team has no seniors on its roster, yet another good sign.
However, probably the best thing going for the Tigers comes in the form of 6'10", 245-pound Johnny O'Bryant, who will be coming to Baton Rouge next season thanks to coach Trent Johnson's recruiting efforts. View him as a center (which I do) and he's the second best one in the country. Overall, he's rated as the 22nd best player in the country. The Tigers current lack of post scoring will be quickly fixed when O'Bryant arrives on the scene.
While this season may not be too successful, a nucleus of Stringer and Turner combined with O'Bryant should give the Tigers a pretty scary trio for years to come.
6. Detroit Titans
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Many people may not even know there's a Detroit University, let alone that it has a Division I basketball team. Getty Images doesn't even have a photo available.
That's going to change pretty soon.
For those that follow recruiting, the big story at the end of the year was highly-touted guard Ray McCallum Jr. (pictured on the right) electing to go to school where his father coaches: Detroit. McCallum had offers from numerous powerhouses, including UCLA. Yet he decided to play for his dad and attempt to make the Titans a relevant basketball team. In the Horizon League (a.k.a. Butler's conference), a player like McCallum has the ability to dominate for years to come.
This season has been OK so far, with the Titans starting 6-5 while only losing to Syracuse by 11 on the road. The roster has no seniors and junior big man Eli Holman (pictured in the middle) has been a beast averaging a double-double. If you're looking to watch these guys this season, their game against Butler on February 12 will be televised on ESPN2. This could very well decide the regular season champ if the Titans are able to improve their record by that time.
While this season may end up being mediocre, I wouldn't be shocked if the Titans beat out Butler next year to win the Horizon and make some noise in the NCAA tournament.
5. Indiana Hoosiers
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Tom Crean inherited one of the biggest rebuilding jobs in recent memory when he took over for Kelvin Sampson two years ago. While their record has yet to show it, the Hoosiers are one their way back to being feared, rather than laughed at, in the basketball world.
The Hoosiers have almost reached their win total from last year already (10) by starting 7-2. After tough freshmen seasons, sophomores Christian Watford and Maurice Creek have become reliable scorers with junior Verdell Jones taking on the role of do-it-all player (13 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists per game).
This team currently has only one senior in starter Jeremiah Rivers, and only two juniors play significant time (Jones and Tom Pritchard). Once the current freshmen and sophomores develop, this team will be dangerous.
And then there's Crean's successes on the recruiting trail. Coming in next season is 6'11" Cody Zeller, younger brother of Tyler and Luke. This Zeller is rated as the 16th-best player in the country and the fifth-best power forward in the country. On the way in two years is what is right now regarded as the best 2012 class in the country. Three highly-regarded players (point guard Kevin Ferrell, power forward Hanner Perea, and center Peter Jurkin) have verbally committed to Crean.
Put the current youth together with the incoming talent and it's no longer a matter of if Indiana will get back to its perennial NCAA tournament history, but when. And when is fast approaching.
4. St. John's Red Storm
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Look at the Red Storm's roster and putting a team with nine seniors, four of them starters, this high on a list dealing with the future looks ridiculous. Such is the case with what new coach Steve Lavin did during the offseason.
The current team isn't bad, with most of the roster returning from a team that went 17-16. This experienced group has started a respectable 5-3 record, most likely due to the seniors trying to adjust to Lavin's new system. A similar record or slightly better would not be shocking.
What is shocking is the coup of players that are on the way to join Lavin in New York next year. Lavin signed eight players, and recorded the third best recruiting class in the country (behind Duke and Kentucky). Six of those eight players are listed on the ESPNU Top 100. All of those six are between 6'3" and 6'9", with four of them being classified as small forwards.
The gem of the group is 6'8" small forward Jakarr Sampson, ranked as the 33rd best player in the country, and who was one of the first to commit to Lavin. The rest of them are: small forwards Maurice Harkless, Dom Pointer, Amir Garrett, power forward Norvel Pelle, and shooting guard D'Angelo Harrison. With that much talent coming all at once, Lavin will be fine even if a couple end up only staying for a year.
Even after being away from coaching for the better part of a decade, Lavin certainly did not forget how to recruit, and the team's record will start to show that beginning next year.
3. Georgia Bulldogs
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Ask most people what sport Georgia has excelled at most this past decade and they will all say football. Basketball? Not so much. The Bulldogs only appeared in the NCAAs twice, neither time making it past the second round.
Expect different results this decade, at least at the start of it.
Led by one of the best players in the SEC, Trey Thompkins, Georgia has started pretty quick out of the gate with a 6-2 record with close, respectable losses to Temple and Notre Dame. Thompkins missed the first three games, but has picked up where he left off last season in averaging 17 points and seven rebounds.
Thompkins has also found some help in guards Gerald Robinson and Travis Leslie, who are both averaging double figures. Oh, and all three of these players are juniors, meaning they should be back next season.
While the Bulldogs do have three seniors, only one of them starts, and they have a highly-regarded recruit in Kentavious Caldwell coming in next season. Caldwell is a 6'4" shooting guard who's rated 14th on the ESPNU 100, and the fourth best player at his position. He will come in immediately and be a major player for this team. One and done is a definite possibility, though.
I like Georgia's chances to make the NCAAs this season, and assuming the trio of juniors all return, view the Bulldogs as a favorite to win the SEC next season and to go far in the NCAA's.
2. Arizona Wildcats
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Arizona lost one of the best coaches in college basketball when Lute Olson decided to step down a few years ago. In came former Xavier coach Sean Miller (pictured) and with him uncertainty as to whether Miller would be able to keep Arizona as one of the powerhouses of the Pac-10.
After a rough season last year (16-15), it appears Miller is the right man for the job.
The Wildcats have had a successful start to the season, going 8-2 with losses to Top 25 teams Kansas and Brigham Young. While they are currently not at the level they were under Olson, it appears Arizona is better than it was last year.
The team's best player, 6'8" 241-pound Derrick Williams, has been a monster this season, averaging 19.5 points and seven rebounds while shooting an insane 65 percent from the field. He's also only a sophomore, and I would doubt he declares to leave for the NBA.
There is only one senior on the roster, Jamelle Horne, and the majority of the production is coming from sophomores.
As for the recruiting class, Miller will be bringing in a class that is envied by many top teams. Rated as the ninth best class in the country, there are three highly-regarded players on their way to Arizona next year who should make immediate impacts. The class is led by the 21st-ranked player, point guard Josiah Turner, the fourth-best point guard in the country. The other two are shooting guard Nick Johnson and power forward Sidiki Johnson (no relation), both of which are top 60 players.
Assuming Williams does not leave for the NBA and the young guys get better, with the amount of quality talent coming in next year, the Wildcats will probably be the favorite to win the Pac-10 next season.
1. North Carolina Tar Heels
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This is easily the most talented team on the list and the one with the highest expectations. It was a huge disappointment last season when the Tar Heels failed to make the NCAAs after winning the national championship two years ago.
The team is currently 7-3 with a good win against Kentucky. The Tar Heels have no business not making the NCAAs this season with all of their talent and returnees who got solid minutes last season.
With so much talent and with such a young team, it should be no surprise that the Tar Heels are No. 1. Only three seniors are on the roster, two of them being walk-ons. The other, Justin Knox, does not start, but does provide solid minutes.
The juniors, Tyler Zeller, Larry Drew II, and Justin Watts, are talented, but none are expected to declare, though Zeller would be the most likely as he is having an outstanding season thus far (16 points and 8 rebounds per game).
Because of it being North Carolina, coach Roy Williams is able to go out and get pretty much anyone he wants every year. While this is nice, it also means a lot of one-and-done potential. Of the current roster, freshman sensation Harrison Barnes is the most likely to declare as he's regarded as the top prospect in the country for the NBA. Sophomore John Henson is also viewed as a lottery pick.
However, even if both of them leave, Williams is bringing in yet another highly regarded recruiting class (rated fifth in the country), led by 6'8" power forward James McAdoo (nephew of North Carolina great, Bob McAdoo). McAdoo is the fifth best prospect in the country. He should provide a lot of inside scoring help should Henson or Zeller leave early.
The other stud player coming in is shooting guard P.J. Hairston, rated as the 13th best prospect in the country. At 6'6", he's one of the bigger guards in the country and has serious range.
While UNC hit a slight bump in the road last season, the Tar Heels will be a Final Four-capable team for quite some time. They have the history, the coach, and the continued success to do it better than anyone else on the list.
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