Michigan State Spartans Are Sick, But Not Dead

Somebody better get started on the funeral arrangements. 

It’s early-December and Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans already look to be on the verge of flatlining. They’re 6-3 and coming off of Tuesday night’s embarrassing 72-58 defeat at the hands of No. 7 Syracuse, in what Izzo called an ” absolute manhandling.”

Michigan State is ranked 67th in college basketball in rebounding margin at +5.4, a number that is surely keeping Izzo awake at night since his teams lead the nation in that category just about every year. They are 321st in turnovers committed at 17.9 per game, and tied for 262nd in free throw shooting at 64 percent. I don’t know about you, but I wasn’t aware there were even 321 teams that compete at the Division I level (there are 345).

The numbers look bad and the Spartans, a team many saw as a favorite to win the national championship, look morbid. If you want to write them off now, be my guest, but you’re crazy if you think this is the level Michigan State is going to be playing at all season long.

Excuses aside, consider the following. From Nov. 22, the first day of the Maui Invitational, to Tuesday night’s Madison Square Massacre, the Spartans played seven games in the span of 15 days. During that time, they logged about 1,700 miles of travel, playing games in Maui, East Lansing, Durham, N.C. and New York City. And they weren’t exactly playing cream puffs, with four of the seven games coming against teams ranked in the top 11.

I would call that a grueling stretch even by Izzo’s standards. He has scheduled harder than this before, but never has the travel been as demanding as the competition. As a result, Michigan State has spent more time in the airport then on the practice court. Couple little practice time with fatigue and you’re going to have a sloppy team.

Most people find the fatigue excuse to be ridiculous and until recently, I was one of those people. I credit Joe Rexrode, Michigan State’s beat writer at the Lansing State Journal for changing my perception with the following:

“No one is saying the players can’t get out of bed, or that they’re collapsing into a puddle of their own drool in the layup line. But if they’re a step behind a talented team that hasn’t been through the same travel and tough games—how can you dismiss that? Seven games in 15 days isn’t just seven games. It’s seven game preps. Film study, scouting reports. Game plans, walk-throughs. Limited practice, heavy travel.”

Well said, Joe. If you still don’t get it, then consider that Syracuse has played just as many games spread out over the course of a full month and hasn’t left New York State. In fact, they won’t leave the state at all until January 17 when they finally travel to Pittsburgh. That might have something to do with why they looked like the fresher and better team on Tuesday.

Fatigue and travel aside, it would be ignorant to brush aside any contender in the season’s first month, but especially Michigan State. We see this sort of lackluster play from them almost every December, but the last three non-conference performances, including this one, played out practically the same. Here is the breakdown, starting with the 2008-09 season.

2008-09

Preseason rank: No. 7

Non-conference recap: Lost to unranked Maryland 80-62 in the opener of the Old Spice Classic, which State was favored to win. A week later they were blown out, 98-63, at Ford Field by No. 1 North Carolina. Just days before Christmas, they went to Houston and beat No. 5 Texas, 67-63, with some late heroics by Durrell Summers. State headed into conference play with momentum and a 9-2 record.

How the season finished: The Spartans went 31-7, won the Big Ten by four games and were rewarded with a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They advanced to the finals, where they took a second beating at Ford Field by the champion Tar Heels.

2009-10

Preseason rank: No. 2

Non-conference recap: Lost to a young and unranked Florida team, 77-74, in the opener of the Legend’s Classic, another tournament they were favored to win. Five days later, the Spartans lost 89-82 in the title game rematch with young and overrated No. 11 North Carolina.

Again, just before the holiday, State traveled to Texas with a chance to salvage something from the non-conference season, but lost 79-68 to the No. 2 Longhorns. Their best win came in the season’s first week, a 75-71 victory at Breslin Center over then-unranked Gonzaga. The Spartans headed into conference play with a 10-3 record and little momentum.

How the season finished: Michigan State finished 28-9 and shared the Big Ten title with Purdue and Ohio State. It was given a No. 5 seed and managed to reach a second consecutive Final Four despite losing its best player, point guard Kalin Lucas, in the second round victory over Maryland. State lost in the National Semifinal to Butler, 52-50.

2010-11

Preseason rank: No. 2

Non-conference recap: Lost 70-67 to a young and unranked UConn squad in the semifinals of the Maui Invitational, yes, a tournament they were favored to win. They left the island with a third place finish after rallying to defeat No. 11 Washington, 76-71, in the consolation.

A week later, they battled but eventually succumbed 84-79 to No. 1 Duke at Cameron Indoor, and followed that with the loss to Syracuse. Michigan State will again face Texas, this time at Breslin Center, on Dec. 22, looking to pick up another win over a quality opponent.

No one knows how this season will finish, but the similarities between this December and each of the past two are striking. The non-conference recaps read basically the same with different teams filling the gaps. Despite the early season struggles, Izzo had his team playing in the final weekend each of the past two years.

This is a veteran group that possesses great talent, experience and versatility, and it’s led by the best coach in America. Are they overrated? Yes. Are they always a bit overrated this time of year? Clearly. But are we likely to see them playing late into March? Absolutely.

It’s fine to have reservations about Michigan State, but for now, hold off on the casket shopping.

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