Dan Mullen: Why He Wouldn't Survive Two Seasons At Florida
Dan Mullen is the one man who many see to be the best possible replacement for Urban Meyer at the University of Florida.
Indeed, Mullen used to be Meyer's offensive coordinator before Mullen took the head coach position at Mississippi State. And before that, Mullen was the quarterbacks coach under Meyer while he was the head coach at Utah, and is the man responsible for molding Alex Smith into a first round draft pick.
Depending on who you ask, Mullen is almost too perfect for the job.
But we here at Bleacher Report aren't so sure. Mullen's certainly a good option, but we just don't see him lasting longer than two years at Florida.
In fact, here are 10 reasons why he wouldn't.
10. If He Does Struggle, Charlie Strong Would Look Better and Better
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Mullen's ties to Meyer clearly overshadow his ties to the University of Florida.
And that's precisely why Charlie Strong is another major candidate to replace Meyer as the head coach of the Gators. He not only coached under Meyer, but he also coached for Steve Spurrier and the ill-fated Ron Zook regime.
So let's say the university hires Mullen instead of Strong, and Mullen struggles immediately. Exactly how long do you think it would take for Florida athletic director Jeremy Foley to realize he made a mistake?
And making matters worse for Mullen would be if Strong's Louisville team improved greatly in 2011 from their 6-6 record in 2010.
If the Gators were to fire Mullen and replace him with Strong, well, that would be pretty ironic. Strong is the guy who got the job when Ron Zook was fired, albeit briefly.
9. He Failed To Turn Mississippi State Into a Passing Team
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Dan Mullen is a quarterback guy. Among the passers he's trained are Alex Smith, Chris Leak, and Tim Tebow, all three of whom were very successful college quarterbacks.
So when he left for Mississippi State, you would think that he would do so with the mind to craft great quarterback. Granted, he had only two years to perform such a task, and he had to do it with two different players in Tyson Lee and Chris Relf. But the Bulldogs were second to last in the SEC in passing in 2009, and third to last in 2010.
While he was at Florida, on the other hand, the Gators were always near the top in passing yards in the SEC.
So what gives? Did he lose his touch? If so, he's going to need to find it again if he is to revive Florida's lackluster passing offense, which struggled under John Brantley in 2010.
8. The Balance of Power In the SEC Has Shifted to the West
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In 2010, there were five teams in the SEC West that won eight or more games.
Only one team in the SEC East won as many as eight, and that was the division champion South Carolina Gamecocks. Moreover, the West has claimed three of the last four SEC Championships, the lone exception being the Gators in 2008.
True enough, there's an ebb and flow to things in college football, and a three-year sample size doesn't necessarily indicate a trend. Great players leave, new recruits come in, and the balance of power can shift without much trouble.
But with coaches like Gene Chizik, Les Miles, Bobby Petrino and Nick Saban all in the West, it's not crazy to imagine that the West could be set for at least a few more years of domination.
And Mullen doesn't have a few years to wait it out.
7. Would the University Be Willing To Wait For Another BCS Bowl?
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Before Meyer came to Florida in 2005, the Gators hadn't been to a BCS Bowl since the 2001 Orange Bowl.
Meyer proceeded to take the Gators to three BCS Bowls in six years, winning all three of them. To say that a standard has been set would be an understatement.
So let's say Mullen takes over as head coach and the Gators don't make a BCS Bowl right away. Fair enough, right?
But what if he loses whatever bowl he does take the team to, or maybe he doesn't take the team to a bowl at all. What then? And what if year two under Mullen started to look even more dire?
Basically, I just don't see the University of Florida settling for mediocrity for as long as three seasons, even if getting rid of Mullen after two or fewer seasons would be unfair.
6. He Hasn't Won Big Games
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One of the Gators' biggest shortcomings in 2010 is that they struggled in big games. Not only did they finish with a 4-4 conference record, they also went 0-4 against ranked teams.
In two years at Mississippi State, the Bulldogs went 8-8 in SEC play under Mullen, and 2-8 against ranked teams.
While it may be unfair to assume that Mullen would take that lack of success over to Florida if he did indeed get the job, it would also be foolish to think that the Florida brass hasn't also taken note of it.
So if they gamble on Mullen and he doesn't pay off with a few big wins, his leash would only get shorter and shorter.
5. His Success at Florida Was Skewed By Tim Tebow
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In Mullen's four seasons with the Florida Gators, the team never averaged fewer than 28 points per game, and they averaged better than 40 in 2007 and 2008.
But is that because of Mullen, or is it because of Tim Tebow?
True that the Gators did see their average points per game fall to 34.7 when Mullen left for Mississippi State in 2009, so maybe he does deserve credit.
But the Bulldogs have also averaged fewer than 30 points a game in each of Mullen's two seasons at the helm, so you have to think that his success does indeed have something to do with Tebow.
And judging by Florida's 2010 season, so did Meyer's. It could be that neither Meyer nor Mullen will never enjoy the same success they had with Tebow under their command, which is why the Gators shouldn't be too eager to trust that the program will improve with Mullen in charge.
4. The Gators Aren't That Good Right Now
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If 7-5 is the best that Meyer could do with this team, why would Mullen be able to do any better?
True, this is oversimplifying things a little, as asking such a question doesn't really take into account the individual improvement of the players or the new talent in Florida's recruiting class (more on that in a bit).
But at the same time, I implore you to think about it. We all thought that the 2010 Gators were going to be a powerhouse team. They were No. 4 on the preseason AP Poll, and were coming off a win in the Sugar Bowl.
But they turned out to be wildly mediocre, which is concerning given that they did so under one of the nation's best coaches.
So maybe Meyer looked at this team, and looked at the talent coming in, and figured it just wasn't worth the effort. The worst case scenario would be Mullen finding that out for himself.
3. He's Been Good With Mississippi State, But Not Great
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When Meyer was hired to be the head coach of the Gators in 2005, he was something of a can't-miss coaching prospect. He led the 2004 Utes to an undefeated record, and the team coined the term "BCS buster."
And in two seasons at Utah before heading to Florida, Meyer had an overall record of 39-8 as a head coach.
And while Mullen has certainly been a good find for Mississippi State, his success has hardly mirrored that of his former boss. Big game struggles notwithstanding, the Bulldogs have gone just 13-11 in Mullen's two seasons, and he could potentially leave without a bowl win if his team loses the Gator Bowl to Michigan.
2. Can He Recruit?
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The fallout from Meyer's resignation is far from complete. The primary focus right now is finding another coach, but another concern should be how Meyer's resignation might affect Florida's ability to recruit.
In a story published in the Orlando Sentinel, Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher stated that he thinks Meyer's absence will help his school's recruiting. And you have to think that coaches within the SEC are thinking the same thing.
According to Rivals.com, the Gators have the ninth-best recruiting class for 2011. Mississippi State is No. 26 on that same list, behind nine other SEC teams.
Make no mistake, the players that have committed to Florida want to play for Meyer, and not all of them might be willing to play for Mullen. Especially not after a 7-5 season.
So if Mullen can't win them over, and he can't keep up with the other SEC teams as far as recruiting is concerned, he doesn't stand a chance.
1. Look at Who He's Replacing
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When Urban Meyer took over as head coach of the Gators in 2005, he had the luxury of replacing Ron Zook, who didn't win a bowl game in two years and was fired before the end of the 2004 season.
Meyer went on to post a 64-15 record as coach of the Gators, winning two BCS National Championships and four bowls overall (with another one still to play).
It would be unfair to expect Mullen to produce results like these. But the problem is that he's going to be expected to do it anyway. The Florida Gators are a very prestigious program, and they showed with Zook that they are not very patient.
So if the Gators struggled in Mullen's first season at the helm, and those struggles continued into his second season, it's not hard to imagine that he would get the axe.
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