NBA Power Rankings: 8 Players Who Could Win Their First MVP Award, Update 1
Before the season started I ranked the potential first-time winners of the NBA's MVP award. After the first month of the season, the chances that there's going to be a new MVP are looking pretty good. Of previous winners, Dirk's probably situated the best of anyone presently, yet he is still closer to a long-shot than sure-thing.
So who is going to win? Here are the present rankings, along with my previous ranking.
Dropping Out Of The Rankings
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Dwyane Wade: Previously 3
There are two reasons that Wade has dropped off. First, the Heat have gotten off to a disappointing start. Second, of late it's not looking like "Wade's team" as much as we thought it would. If anything it's a co-owned team, but with James leading in both scoring and assists, it's hard to think of Wade as an MVP.
Brandon Roy: Previously 4
It's not all Roy's fault. He got hurt. Still, even before that this team was really a collaborative effort, with a number of players helping out. It's hard to say who the MVP of this team is: Everyone is pitching in.
Carmelo Anthony: Previously 5
Anthony is arguably the biggest star without an MVP, but so far this year he's done more to distinguish himself as "most rumored trade" than most valuable player. It may take a trade for him to win. If he goes to New York he could turn them into an immediate contender, and he would definitely get more MVP consideration there than he has in Denver.
Just Outside The Rankings
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First, here are a couple of players who are outside looking in but who could earn their way into the conversation.
Josh Smith: Smith has long been the overlooked superstar in the league. He does everything really well, but nothing outstandingly. Part of the problem is that Joe Johnson is the leading scorer. However with Johnson's injury, Smith has the opportunity to carry the team and get the credit he deserves as the team's true MVP.
Russell Westbrook: Westbrook has the fortunate yet unfortunate circumstance of having Kevin Durant as his teammate. Durant finished second in the MVP voting last season and opened this year as a heavy favorite to win the award.
8: Manu Ginobli
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Previously: Unranked
The San Antonio Spurs have been "Tim Duncan's team" for the last decade and then some. This year though, it's been Ginobli who has led the Spurs to their amazing start. Ginobli leads the team in scoring and is second in assists. More importantly, he's been the energy behind the Spurs' early season run. The only strike against him is that it's such a three-headed monster that it's hard to distinguish among him, Tony Parker and Duncan for MVP of the team.
7: Kevin Durrant
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Previously: 2
On the plus side he's leading the league in scoring. On the downside, Westbrook is leading the lead in the fourth quarter lately and is arguably the more valuable player on the team. It's almost unfair that individually either player would get more consideration independent of the other, but having the two together means that both steal votes from the other.
6: Deron Williams
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Previously: 7
At first brush, it's hard for me to give you a good reason that he's only sixth in the rankings. The only reason he is is that the five players in front of him should be in the top five as well. Let's just say that the difference between two and six is the breadth of a hair. That's how close it is.
Williams is an outstanding point guard. He's lost his most valuable partner, and not only has he not skipped a beat, he has stepped up his game. He's averaging 21 points and 10 assists a game and threatens to join the very rare 20/10 club where he would be in very elite company.
Furthermore, Williams is clutch. He's the leader of the team. He takes over games. He's everything that you can ask for in an MVP. It would be a long way from a surprise if he won.
5: Rajon Rondo
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Previously: Unranked
His current pace of 14.1 assists puts him on pace for the third best in the history of the NBA. Unfortunately for Roindo, he also only has a little more than 10 points per game. The only two seasons where someone had more assists were both John Stockton years. He finished ninth and 12th respectively in those seasons in the MVP voting.
Then again, Steve Nash has won a couple of MVPs since then. Still no player has ever won the MVP averaging less than 15 ppg. Could Rondo be the first? It could be argued that even on a team that could very well see the entire starting five in the All-Star game, he's the one irreplaceable component. If people consider his value and not his scoring, he has a shot.
4: Pau Gasol
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Previously: 6
Over the first few weeks of the season he "Pau vaulted" to the top of the MVP race, leading the Lakers to a fantastic start while playing out of position. He's been playing through some injuries lately though, and part of that has resulted in a four-game losing streak. The other problem is that he's got this teammate you may have heard of: Kobe Bryant.
I believe that if Kobe endorses him and "frees up" voters to give Pau their vote, he would become a front runner. I wouldn't be surprised if he did it either. Right now though, I think he and the Lakers are more worried about getting things turned around than who wins MVP though.
3: Chris Paul
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Previously: Unranked
He missed my previous list because I said that the Hornets just wouldn't be a good enough team. I was wrong. The Hornets' hot start wasn't only a surprise to me, though. Unlike the contenders behind him, Paul isn't in danger of splitting votes with a teammate. He is without question the catalyst to the Hornets' hot start. The only reason he's not higher is that the team has cooled off a bit lately.
2: Derrick Rose
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Previously: 8
Derrick Rose's Chicago Bulls are a game over .500, which might have some wondering why he is so high. Well, he's the difference between the team being a game over .500 and being about five games below it. He is the Bulls offense, averaging over 25 points and eight assists per game. The only player other than Rose to do that at 22 or younger is a guy named Oscar Robertson.
Rose also has the intangibles. His play sets up the offense for the entire team. His defense is greatly improved. He takes over games in the fourth quarter. He's already led the Bulls to two comebacks of 23 points or more this year, something no other team has ever done. And he did it all without his clear number two, who was watching with a broken hand.
He also leads the league in jaw-dropping, ankle-breaking, ESPN-making highlights. That kind of nightly notoriety is what makes people superstars and gets them MVP votes.
1: Dwight Howard
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Previous: 1
Can anyone really argue that there's a player more important to their team? Perhaps you could argue that Rose is as important, but not more so, and the Bulls aren't as good as the Magic.
It's not just the play, it's the scheme. He's the two-time defensive player of the year, and now he's posting a career high in scoring too. The entire scheme, both offensively and defensively, is built around Howard. All those perimeter shooters become harmless if there's no low post threat. No offense to Marcin Gortat, but if Howard goes down, he's not going to keep defensive coordinators awake at nights.
