College Football Bowl Projections: B/R Sets the Betting Line on All 35 Games
College football bowl season is among us and to the sports book gambler, this is the most wonderful time of the year.
The bowl season brings a delicious feast of 35 games to the table. Dissecting these lines the minute Vegas releases them is almost as joyful as unwrapping those gifts underneath the tree.
To get a head start on this holiday season, let’s try to beat Vegas to the punch and set the lines for these upcoming bowl games.
Since several of the bowl match-ups have not been set, I have piggybacked off of the bowl projections by ESPN’s Mark Schlabach to fill out the board.
Here are my lines for these projected bowl match-ups.
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Florida State Vs. Mississippi State
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The Seminoles posted better numbers in Scoring Offense/Defense, Passing Offense/Defense, and Red Zone conversions than Mississippi State this season, giving them a slight edge if these two teams go head to head in this bowl.
An outstanding advantage in Sacks should also give Florida State a boost when Vegas bookmakers write this line.
Line: Florida State -5.5
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Kansas State Vs. Syracuse
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Kansas State’s explosive offense could tangle with Syracuse's stingy defense in this Big 12/Big East duel.
Although the Orange defense will slow down Kansas State, the Wildcats' relentless running attack and ability to convert consistently on third downs should give them an edge once this game hits the sports book.
Line: Kansas State -6
Little Caesars Bowl: Louisville Vs. Northern Illinois
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Northern Illinois posted the 11th most productive offensive in the FBS, largely due to senior running back Chad Spann.
With the Louisville and Northern Illinois defenses finishing the season with somewhat similar numbers, the Huskies’ dynamic defense should provide them the edge when this line opens.
Line: Northern Illinois -8
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GoDaddy.com Bowl: Miami (OH) Vs. Troy
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While Troy’s offense will definitely be the better squad taking the field in this bowl game, Miami (OH) has a bigger edge on the defensive side of the ball.
This match up should be pretty even, with Miami’s defense being the difference when this game is said and done.
Line: Miami -2
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State Vs. Navy
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An elite passing team vs. an unstoppable running game will highlight this year’s Poinsettia Bowl.
However, Ryan Lindley will have a friendly home crowd behind him, and this fact alone should provide San Diego State with an edge in this game’s opening line.
Line: San Diego State -3
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Tulsa Vs. Hawaii
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Two high-powered offenses clash in this bowl on the islands, providing fans with a game that should have a plethora of scoring.
Hawaii and Tulsa posted fairly similar numbers on offense and defense in 2010, but home-field advantage for the Warriors has to play a part when Vegas bookmakers come up with this line.
Line: Hawaii -3.5
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: UCF Vs. Georgia
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Despite the fact that both teams put up roughly 35 p/g this season, UCF’s stingy defense should provide them with a slight edge in the books.
Georgia has definitely faced tougher competition, but the Knights' running game ranks in the Top 25 and could force bookmakers to write a line in their favor.
Line: UCF -3.5
New Orleans Bowl: UTEP Vs. Florida International
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With both offenses and defenses tallying practically identical numbers, bookmakers will have to dig deep to find a suitable line in this game.
Florida International’s ability to hold teams on third downs (35.2 percent opponent third-down conversion) and getting to the quarterback (30 sacks) should push the Golden Panthers into favored territory.
Line: Florida International -3.5
Texas Bowl: Baylor Vs. Illinois
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While Baylor can definitely rack up the points (32.6 p/g), they also know how to give up scores regularly (29.8).
Unfortunately for the Bears, Illinois can also strike in a hurry (32.9 p/g).
The Illini defense holds an edge if these two teams meet, and that should be the difference when this spread goes up.
Line: Illinois -6.5
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Boston College Vs. Army
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Army’s untamable rushing attack (260.2 y/g) faces Boston College’s No. 1-ranked rushing defense (80.0 y/g). Something will have to give if these two teams meet.
Although the Eagles should find a way to contain Army’s option offense, the Black Knights’ superior offensive numbers should make them the favorites once this bowl match-up is solidified.
Line: Army -4.5
Independence Bowl: Clemson Vs. Air Force
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Air Force’s second-ranked rushing offense holds enough weight to provide the Falcons with an opening line in their favor.
Clemson’s offense has struggled to make any real noise this year and could be the reason the Tigers open up as slight underdogs.
Line: Air Force -4.5
BBVA Compass Bowl: Connecticut Vs. Kentucky
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Behind the explosive arm of Mike Hartline, Kentucky should ride their way into the Compass Bowl as the Vegas Odds favorite.
But offense is not the only thing these Wildcats bring to the table. Their defense has put up amazing numbers in the red zone, allowing teams to score at a minuscule 8.5-percent clip.
UCONN’s rushing-based offense should keep this one close, though, making this line fall just slightly in favor of Kentucky.
Line: Kentucky -3.5
Military Bowl: Georgia Tech Vs. East Carolina
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Despite East Carolina’s ability to put up points (38.2 p/g), their defense is absolutely horrid, ranking 118th with 43.4 p/g.
Georgia Tech’s top ranked rushing offense should take advantage of this, but a mediocre pass defense might get taken advantage of by the Pirates’ Dominique Davis.
The Yellow Jackets will open as favorites, but not by much.
Line: Georgia Tech -2
Gator Bowl: Iowa Vs. Florida
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A three-game losing streak to end the season would usually force Vegas to think twice about making a team a favorite. But when you consider their opponent, it is hard not to give Iowa the edge.
Iowa’s defense has been stout this season, but their true advantage comes on offense.
Ricky Stanzi’s talent overshadows John Brantley’s current status, which should provide Iowa with a healthy spread to open this one.
Line: Iowa -10
TicketCity Bowl: Northwestern Vs. Texas Tech
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The absence of Dan Persa should be the difference when Vegas casinos post this line.
Northwestern and Texas Tech put up similar numbers on both sides of the ball this season, but with Northwestern missing the quarterback that got it there, the Red Raiders should open as a decent-sized favorite.
Line: Texas Tech -7
Music City Bowl: Maryland Vs. Tennessee
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Tennessee’s strong finish against the SEC’s bottom feeders should put them into a bowl, but it won’t be enough to make them an opening-line favorite.
Maryland has been surprisingly good this season and is actually the better team entering this bowl.
Vegas should realize this and favor the Terrapins.
Line: Maryland -5
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Miami (Fla.) Vs. Boise State
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Boise State's uncharacteristic regular season slip should force them into this awkwardly named bowl.
Despite their tumble, the Broncos will definitely be the better team no matter who they face, and they should open as a decent-sized favorite.
With Miami’s inner turmoil at the coaching position, their on-field product could be hard to predict and may force gamblers to inflate the line the other way.
Line: Boise State -14.5
Capital One Bowl: Michigan State Vs. LSU
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Michigan State and LSU have been on magical rides this season, exceeding expectations and making believers out of many.
While both teams have excellent offenses and defenses, LSU’s special teams definitely tilt the scales in their favor. Parlay that with the Tigers’ tougher schedule and Vegas should make LSU around a touchdown favorite.
Line: LSU -7.5
Insight Bowl: Michigan Vs. Missouri
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Michigan reaches their first bowl in three years, but their defense will more than likely keep them from winning a bowl game for a few more seasons (33.8 p/g).
Missouri, on the other, has a suffocating defense (15.2 p/g) which should be the deciding factor in this game.
Both teams have the ability to put up points, though, keeping this spread fairly small.
Line: Missouri -3.5
Valero Alamo Bowl: Nebraska Vs. Arizona
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In what would be a rematch of last year’s Holiday Bowl, a similar outcome from that meeting would not be completely out of the question.
Although Arizona has stumbled to the finish, Nebraska has also finished the season slightly sluggishly.
However, the Cornhuskers have better production in the red zone and their defense is also somewhat better than Arizona. If Vegas takes into account last year’s shellacking, this line could start off quite large.
Line: Nebraska -14.5
Champs Sports Bowl: North Carolina State Vs. Notre Dame
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Pass first, run second seems to be the method of attack for both Notre Dame and North Carolina State, which means keeping the quarterback safe will be the key for both teams.
Although North Carolina State ranks 108th in sacks allowed (35), their defense definitely has a nose for the QB, collecting 40 sacks this year.
Notre Dame’s offensive line should have their hands full, and the bookmakers will certainly take notice.
Line: North Carolina State -4.5
Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina Vs. Pittsburgh
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North Carolina and Pittsburgh experienced turbulent seasons in 2010, both slightly disappointed in the bowl game that will be handed to them.
This possible match-up would be an equal-sided tug of war, with the win most likely going to the team that scores last.
Bookmakers might give Pittsburgh the edge due to better special teams and red-zone defense.
Line: Pittsburgh -2.5
New Mexico Bowl: Ohio Vs. Fresno State
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In what would be a fairly even match-up, Fresno State’s tougher schedule would probably give it a slight advantage when coming up with a spread.
Facing the offenses of Boise State, Nevada, and Hawaii should have prepared the Bulldogs for the toughest of battles and will be deemed as the favorite in this otherwise meaningless bowl game.
Line: Fresno State -3
AT&T Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State Vs. Alabama
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Yes, Oklahoma State can light up the scoreboard (44.9 p/g), but they have yet to meet a defense like Alabama’s (14.1 p/g).
Alabama isn’t exactly a stranger to scoring points (34.6 p/g), either. If the Cowboys can muster up a shootout, the Tide definitely has the weapons to keep up.
Vegas should make Alabama a favorite, but not by much.
Line: Alabama -3
Outback Bowl: Penn State Vs. South Carolina
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South Carolina’s two-headed offense of Stephen Garcia and Marcus Lattimore has them oh-so-close to a BCS bowl. But a loss in the SEC Championship game will most likely send them tumbling to this less than exotic bowl.
The Gamecocks definitely have the better offense and defense in this possible match-up and the line should represent that accordingly.
Line: South Carolina -8.5
St. Petersburg Bowl: South Florida Vs. Southern Miss
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In this “yawn” bowl, South Florida’s 21st-ranked defense (19.5 p/g) squares off against Southern Mississippi’s 15th-ranked offense (37.6 p/g).
Although the Bulls defense might be able keep this spread in the single digits, the Golden Eagles superior offense should receive respect from the odds makers.
Pick: Southern Mississippi -9.5
Armed Forces Bowl: SMU Vs. BYU
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While BYU’s rushing attack is no joke (163.8 y/g), SMU has a comparable rushing game (144.5 y/g) plus a passing attack that could push the line in their favor.
Kyle Padron’s 275.5 y/g ranks 14th in the FBS and he could easily pick apart a rather mediocre BYU passing defense.
Line: SMU -4
Holiday Bowl: Texas A&M Vs. Washington
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Washington’s disappointing offense should feel lucky that they will even make a bowl this season. Barring a complete collapse against Washington State, a Holiday Bowl where they will be overmatched by any Big 12 team awaits them.
Texas A&M is one of the hottest team in college football right now, and the line in this game has the potential to be astronomically large.
Line: Texas A&M -17
Humanitarian Bowl: Toledo Vs. Nevada
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After watching Nevada’s offense hang with (and upset) one of the best offenses in the nation, a duel against Toledo almost seems unfair.
Colin Kaepernick’s orchestration of Nevada’s pistol offense is eye-popping, and Vegas should have no problem writing a lofty spread in this game.
Line: Nevada -20.5
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl: Utah Vs. Temple
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While Utah has apparently lost the pop that they had when the season began, a bowl game against Temple could revive their somewhat dormant offense.
Although Temple and Utah defenses put up practically identical numbers, Utah’s offense definitely holds a bigger advantage compared to the Owls.
The odds makers should heavily favor the Utes because of this.
Line: Utah -12.5
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Arkansas Vs. Ohio State
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While Arkansas will bring a powerful passing game with Ryan Mallett at the helm, Ohio State will counter with the fourth-ranked passing defense in the FBS.
The Buckeyes rushing offense and defense also possess a decent edge in this possible matchup, which should sway the bookmakers to move the line in favor of Ohio State.
Line: Ohio State -7.5
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech Vs. West Virginia
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West Virginia’s stout defense (12.5 p/g) will be the key to keeping this spread to a minimum, but Virginia Tech’s offense and lengthy winning streak could convince the bookmakers otherwise.
The Hokies would definitely be the stronger team entering this BCS Bowl, and not just because their conference was smidgen harder.
Virginia Tech has been impressive on both sides of the ball, which should warrant a decent-sized line.
Line: Virginia Tech -6.5
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma Vs. Stanford
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This rematch of last year’s Sun Bowl should have quite the different feel.
The Sooners lucked out (pardon the pun) last season when Andrew Luck couldn’t play in Stanford’s first bowl game in eight years.
This year, Luck and Stanford’s much improved defense should be a huge factor when bookmakers write this spread.
Line: Stanford -6
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin Vs. TCU
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Since Wisconsin and TCU both know how to put up points and put them up in a hurry, this game should come down to the defense that can come up with the most stops.
Although the Badgers defense is no slouch, TCU’s defense has been practically immaculate this season.
Despite playing in a softer conference, it is hard to overlook the numbers that the Horned Frogs posted on both sides of the ball.
Line: TCU -4
National Championship Game: Oregon Vs. Auburn
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Although Oregon’s offense and defense put up stronger numbers than Auburn this season, this line should be fairly even once this matchup is set.
Auburn’s tougher schedule should help even out this line and will most likely give the Tigers the edge when this spread is written.
Line: Auburn -1.5
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