BCS Rankings Week 13 Analysis and Week 14 Projections

The BCS rankings for week 13 has just been released, and the Auburn Tigers are sitting in the No. 1 spot with the Oregon Ducks at No. 2, leaving both teams in control of their own destinies to play for the BCS Championship.

If both Auburn and Oregon win out, then the BCS matchup is set.  What would happen if one OR both of these teams lose?  Could No. 3 TCU move up, or will No. 4 Stanford jump the Horned Frogs and place themselves into the Championship game?

Here is a quick analysis of possibilities for Week 14.


Methodology

To project possibilities I used the spread for Auburn and South Carolina, which is -7 Auburn. The spread for Oregon and Oregon St. is not out, but I used the Vegas Football Odds for week 12, when Oregon played Cal. Oregon was at -20 for a game on the road. I decreased that line on my own projections, so Oregon will be on the road and in a rivalry game, favoring them by 10.


Scenario 1: Auburn v. Oregon

This is the simplest out come.  Given the current BCS rankings, at No .1 and No. 2, if the Ducks and Tigers win their last respective games, they will face each other in the BCS rankings.


Possibility of Matchup: 75 Percent

There is a 25 percent chance that this matchup might not happen.  Oregon has to travel to Corvallis for the civil war against Oregon St.  Any rivalry game is not a given, but this potential upset would be a game that Beaver fans will not let the Ducks forget.

Auburn will be facing South Carolina, a team that upset No. 1 Alabama and lost by only seven to the Tigers in their week four matchup.  The Ol' Ball Coach in the SEC game is always a wild card.


Scenario 2: TCU v. Auburn or Oregon

If either Oregon or Auburn lose, then No.3 ranked TCU will jump into the No. 2 spot and face the No. 1 team for the Championship.


Possibility of Matchup: 25 Percent

Given my projection that there is a 75 percent chance of an Oregon rivalry to emerge, there is a 25 percent chance either Auburn or Oregon will create an upset, opening the door for TCU.


Scenario 3: Oregon v. a One Loss Auburn Leaving TCU Out

If Oregon wins and Auburn loses to South Carolina, they are still ranked high enough in the BCS to jump TCU and play Oregon.  This would leave an undefeated TCU out of the BCS Championship game.


Possibility of Matchup: 15 Percent

This scenario would validate all the skeptics' concerns of the current BCS ranking model. If Auburn is to lose, the BCS would naturally move the third ranked team into the No. 2 spot, below the No. 1 ranked Oregon Ducks.  However, Auburn's BCS ranking could be high enough, so that even with one loss, they would still place at the No. 2 spot—over a TCU team that has a weaker strength of schedule than the Tigers.


Scenario 4: TCU v. a One Loss Team (Auburn, Oregon, Stanford, Wisconsin)

If both Oregon and Auburn are to lose, then TCU would jump into the No. 1 spot as the only undefeated team in the country and face off against a one loss team.  The question would be WHO?


Possibility of Matchup: 5%

This is a low possibility. If both teams were to be in an upset game, then TCU will be in the championship game.  I am projecting that this will likely not happen because there is a low chance that both the No. 1 and two teams will be in an upset game.  

If the unlikely happens—Auburn and Oregon do lose, then they will face a one loss team. Auburn could still have the highest BCS ranking, and they would face TCU for the BCS championship.


Scenario 5: Oregon v. Stanford a Rematch 

If Oregon wins and Auburn loses, this would be another scenario that would cause mass hysteria in College Football Nation.  This scenario proposes that if Auburn loses and TCU has a weak schedule, then the best one loss team could be Stanford—whose only loss would be from Oregon, setting up a rematch of the two PAC 10 schools.


Possibility of Matchup: 5 Percent

This is another scenario that would not validate the legitimacy of the BCS ranking model. A championship game that already happened is a negative externality of an inverse ranking model.  Instead of moving teams forward and creating matchups that have not already happened, like a logical linear ranking model, this would question the legitimacy of the current BCS ranking model.  This has a low possibility of happening because it would take an upset of Auburn and jump an undefeated TCU.


Conclusion

The speculations and possibilities of the final BCS rankings question the legitimacy and validity of the current BCS ranking model.  

If one of the scenarios, with a lower possibility occurs, then the talk of an alternative, such as a playoff system, will be raised.

According to my projections, I am showing that the final BCS rankings will have Auburn v. Oregon for the BCS Championship.  However, there is a chance of an upset, or the computer rankings create an unlikely outcome.

All we can do is watch what happens on the field and hope that College Football can produce.

- Da Kahuna