NBA Award Watch: Chris Paul, Dwight Howard and 10 Early-Season MVP Favorites
Three weeks into the NBA season, we’ve already got a clear-cut MVP favorite in Chris Paul. That much is clear.
Paul wasted no time this year reminding everyone that all the talk about Deron Williams usurping him as best point guard in the NBA during last year’s playoffs may have been just a little premature (guilty as charged).
But CP3 isn’t the only NBA player off to a hot start this year.
One look at some of the top individual performances of this season (can you say Paul Millsap's three-point barrage, anyone?) speaks to how much amazing the NBA has delivered in only a few short weeks.
Without further adieu, here are Chris Paul and nine of the other most likely candidates for league MVP in the season's early going.
10. LeBron James, Miami Heat
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It'd feel wrong to completely exclude the two-time defending regular-season MVP from this list, wouldn't it?
While King James hasn't been throwing out nightly triple-doubles or boasting the 28-7-7 averages that he "spoiled us" with in Cleveland, his time in Miami hasn't exactly been counterproductive.
No, in fact his current 8.9 assist per game average would best his career-high, as Miami has installed him as a Magic Johnson-esque ball-handler in the offense. Then again, his rebounding per game average has plummeted and his scoring percentages have equally dipped.
Granted, we’ve already seen a microcosm of this: As LBJ becomes more acquainted with the Heat’s offense, it’s only natural to expect a rise in his numbers across the board. After turning the ball over 17 times in his first two games with Miami, LBJ only has 20 turnovers in the Heat’s seven November games.
9. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
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Yes, Kobe may be taking a backseat to Pau Gasol in the early going this season, but there’s no mistaking that the Lakers are still Kobe’s team. One look at his dreadful 11-of-32 night against the Nuggets this past Thursday says all you need to know about Kobe’s permanent shooting green light under Phil Jackson.
So, while Kobe may be averaging his lowest per-game minutes since 1997-98, his scoring averages haven’t suffered too much. Kobe still ranks third in the league in scoring, averaging 25.7 points per game, and he has only scored less than 20 points in a single game this season.
And, in all actuality, his season averages of 25.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.3 steals per game aren’t that far off from his averages these past few seasons.
Until those knees finally start slowing Kobe down, or unless P.J. continues to slash Kobe’s minutes (a real possibility, given that the Lakers are playing for the playoffs, not the regular season), KB24 should be in MVP contention all season long.
8. Deron Williams, Utah Jazz
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D-Will and the Jazz stumbled out to a 0-2 start and red flags were raised immediately in Utah. Now, after five straight come-from-behind victories, the Williams-led Jazz suddenly look like one of the NBA's most dangerous teams.
While the potent scoring combination of Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson has gotten it done down low for the Jazz, the offense's engine doesn't start running unless Williams turns the key.
Given Williams' 22.2 points per game and 10.3 assists per game averages so far this season, it's safe to say that any problems with the offense aren't stemming from him. He's already posted six double-doubles (with points and assists) in the Jazz's first 11 games, and he's shooting 37 percent from three, which makes him a viable option as a long-range shooter.
If the Jazz keep clawing their way towards the top of the Western Conference, and Williams continues being the focal point for Utah, he'll continue to rise on this list as the season rolls on.
7. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
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First Rose rolls out "Fast Don't Lie," only one of the most randomly-genius shoe marketing campaigns in recent memory. Then Rose explodes out of the gates this season, tied for fourth in the NBA in scoring with 24.7 points per game.
He also proved that all his work on his jumper this summer paid off, as he's knocked down 11 of his 34 three-point shots so far this season, which translates to 32.4 percent. Considering his career average of 25.9 percent three-point shooting, that's admitted progress for Rose in the early going.
Rose's scoring isn't the only thing that's taken a massive leap—he's also boosted his assists per game average by nearly three assists this year, going from 6.0 assists per game in 2009-10 to 9.3 this season.
Rose has willingly shouldered a huge chunk of the Bulls' offensive burden with Carlos Boozer still out with a broken hand. If he continues playing at this level when Boozer returns, it's hard to imagine the Bulls not being a contender for the NBA championship.
6. Monta Ellis, Golden State Warriors
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Ellis issued a wake-up call to the rest of the NBA by dropping a 46-point bomb on opening night against the Houston Rockets, and he hasn't slowed down yet. (More impressively, those 46 points came on only 24 shots—who ever thought they'd hear those efficiency numbers from Monta?)
Truth be told, that's been the key to Monta's explosion this season: A sudden boost in efficiency. So far this season, Ellis is shooting an absurd 51.4 percent from the field—efficiency numbers Ellis hasn't dreamed of since his breakout 2007-08 season.
Ellis's 26.7 points per game scoring average currently ranks second in the league, only behind Kevin Durant. And with Monta averaging a career-high 2.5 steals per game, it's no surprise to see his Golden State Warriors with a winning record early in the season.
At this point, it appears that Ellis and Stephen Curry have learned how to play off each other. If both can stay healthy and Curry can continue dishing to Ellis for easy looks, allowing Ellis to maintain his absurd shooting percentage, Ellis could become a real dark-horse for MVP as the season moves forward.
5. Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
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Who ever thought we’d be seeing a story titled “Why Pau Gasol, Not Kobe Bryant, Has Been the Team's MVP” that wasn’t written satirically?
Thanks to a slight decrease in minutes for Kobe this year, it’s no longer a stretch to suggest that Gasol has been more important to his team than the back-to-back Finals MVP. Kobe may be third in the league in scoring with 25.7 points per game, but his 33.4 minutes/game average is the lowest it’s been since the 1997-98 season.
Meanwhile, Gasol apparently decided to open up this season announcing his candidacy for MVP. Through the Lakers’ first 11 games this season, Gasol is averaging a preposterous 22.7 points, 12.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.5 blocks per game.
In terms of team win shares, no one player has done more for his team than Gasol at this point in the season, according to Basketball-Reference.com. Gasol’s personal contributions have already earned him a total of 2.3 win shares. Only Gasol, Al Horford, Paul Millsap and Chris Paul have cracked the 2.0 win share range.
4. Kevin Durant, OKC Thunder
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Based partly on LBJ's decision to take his talents to South Beach and partly on the fact he became the youngest scoring champion in NBA history last season, Kevin Durant opened this season as the MVP favorite.
While he's already back leading the league in scoring (with 28.4 points per game), Durant hasn't run away with the MVP award like some (including myself) thought he would.
You wouldn't know from glancing at his scoring averages, but Durant has actually had far more trouble scoring this year than he has since his rookie year. His 41.7 field-goal percentage and 30.9 three-point shooting percentage are far cries from his career averages of 45.9 and 35.8 percent, respectively.
But Durant has cracked the 30-point plateau six times in 11 games and, well, MVP voters tend to (overly) reward scorers for their craft. And as long as the Thunder continue straightening out their early season woes (four wins in their past five games), Durant should be back as a legitimate MVP front-runner soon enough.
3. Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
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Well, we’re just under five months removed from a Yahoo! Sports report suggesting the Celtics would still be willing to trade Rajon Rondo for the right price. Something tells me their willingness has waned.
All Rondo has done so far this year is shatter the NBA’s record for number of assists in the first few games of the season. His average of 15.1 assists per game gives him an average of nearly five assists more than his closest competitor (Deron Williams, with a 10.3 assists per game).
Yes, the concerns about his shooting remain. A 46.2 percent average from the free-throw line must makes Doc Rivers toss and turn at night, as teams will continue feeling comfortable when Rondo’s got his hands on the ball with the game on the line.
But anyone that can facilitate and run an offense as well as Rondo deserves MVP consideration, with or without a crappy jumper.
2. Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
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Despite the best efforts of some local Orlando homers last season, Dwight Howard never found himself legitimately in MVP conversation, finishing fourth in voting.
This season, after working with Hakeem Olajuwon this summer, D-Ho’s offense appears to be catching up with his defense. And that’s downright terrifying for the rest of the league.
Despite shooting a career-low 53.3 percent from the free-throw line this season, Howard’s averaging a career-high 21.2 points per game in only 32.7 minutes. He’s been much more aggressive around the basket, unafraid to display some of the post moves he learned from The Dream this summer.
Add in his 11.5 rebounds per game and the 3.0 shots per game that he’s returning to sender, and you’ve got one of the most complete players in the NBA on both sides of the ball. D-Ho already required a special game plan from opposing coaches on the defensive end. If his offense continues to impress, he’ll have a real chance to walk away from this season not only as the Defense Player of the Year, but as the league MVP.
1. Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
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There’s no questioning this one. If the MVP ballots closed today, Paul would win the award in such a landslide that the MVP water-cooler conversation would inevitably shrink to: “Well…who’s second best?”
The Hornets, a team that was undefeated up until Monday, have been singlehandedly sparked by Paul’s early season greatness. CP3 currently ranks third in the league in assists with an average of 10.1 per game, and third in the league with 2.78 steals per game. He’s also first overall with a PER just shy of 30 (29.64).
And Paul blows the rest of the league out of the water in terms of average win shares per 48 minutes, with a 0.331 according to Basketball-Reference.com, leading his next closest competitor (Al Horford) by nearly six full percentage points. Considering that the league average for AWS48 is around 0.1, Paul’s current average is simply astronomical in comparison.
Long story short, Paul is performing at a higher rate than any other player in the NBA, and he’s doing it for an 8-1 team. There’s not much questioning this pick at this early point in the season.
