NBA MVP Race: Chris Paul Clear in the Early Picture
After last night, we’re 12 percent through the regular season (149 out of 1,230 NBA games have been played, and 21 of the 166 days of the season have passed). What does the MVP picture look like right now?
MVP 101
First, a little MVP 101, since there seem to be a lot of misconceptions about the MVP at Bleacher Report.
The MVP is not necessarily the best or most productive player in the league (which player is the best is always debatable, even in the most obvious cases). He is not necessarily the player who does the most for his team (Brook Lopez would have been a finalist last year, if that were the case).
The old rule of thumb of “the best player on the best team” is crude, but valid to an extent.
In 20 of the last 33 seasons, the MVP has come from a team that either led or tied for the lead in wins (I’ll talk here about the past 33 seasons because 1978 was the first season that we got the full range of statistical data that we still have today). In five other seasons since 1978, the MVP has come from a team that finished within three wins of the league lead. Only three times in that period has the MVP come from a team that finished 10 or more games out of the league lead in wins.
When does the MVP come from a team that does not lead in wins? Aside from the narrative element, which I’ll talk about in just a bit, it happens when the winningest team has two or three players sharing the load, while a team that finishes just a couple of wins out of the lead is led by a single player who does everything.
To some extent, all this is quantifiable, and it comes down to “win shares.”
There is a win shares formula that is based on Hollinger’s PER system, which I’m not crazy about, so I use my own formula. The basic concept is to take the percentage of a player’s overall statistical production (OSP) and apply it to the team’s wins (so, for instance, a player with 20% of his team’s OSP, on a team that wins 60, would have 12.00 win shares; a player with 25% OSP on a 50-win team would have the same 12.00 win shares; etc.)
A player generally needs a minimum of 12 win shares to be MVP; LeBron had 16.25 and a ridiculously high 18.14 his last two MVP seasons.
Using my formula for win shares, I find that in 21 out of 33 seasons the MVP has been the leader in win shares and that in an additional 6 seasons the MVP was less than a single win share behind the leader. Only three times has the MVP finished more than 2 win shares behind the leader. (I might note that my win shares formula is more accurate for predicting the MVP than the standard, PER based formula. Basketball-Reference.com lists the standard win shares leaders by year, and only in 18 out of the 33 seasons since 1978 has the win shares leader been the MVP, as opposed to my 21 out of 33. See http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/.)
When is the MVP not the win shares leader? This is where what I call the narrative element comes in, which can trump statistical superiority.
Steve Nash’s two MVPs are classic instances. As almost everyone argues, Nash’s MVPs weren’t justified objectively (though he wasn’t as far off as some people argue). In 2005, Nash’s first year with the Suns, Phoenix jumped from 29 wins to a league-leading 62 wins. What sealed the deal is that when Nash got hurt mid-season, Phoenix lost all five games that he missed. When Nash recovered, the Suns got right back on track. The MVP was won right there.
The narrative was that Nash might not have been the biggest statistical producer himself, but he had a magical effect on his teammates. The next season, the Suns lost their top inside scoring threat, Amare Stoudemire, for pretty much the season. The prevailing perception was that the Suns should have fallen well out of contention, but that was not the case. Nash kept them together by over-performing, and the team managed to win 54 games and clinch the Pacific Division.
Others have mentioned that there was a racial element in the decision making process: The NBA was eager to select a white MVP. I will leave it to other to argue over this factor, but that's another narrative element.
I won’t go into the other narrative exceptions, not that there are very many in any case. As I said above, the MVP comes from either the winningest team or a team that is close to the winningest in most cases, and the MVP leads or comes close to leading in win shares. Now, let’s take a look at this season.
This Season’s Leading Contenders
If the season were to end today, the leaders for MVP consideration would be Chris Paul, Chris Paul, and Chris Paul. In other words, as of now, there’s no race at all. The Hornets are projected to win 72.9 games with CP3 to play in 82. He will finish with 25.6% OSP and 18.69 win shares.
The next closest competitors are Rajon Rondo at 16.34 win shares and Pau Gasol at 14.93, followed by Tony Parker (13.16), Deron Williams (12.64), Russell Westbrook (12.37), Jason Kidd (12.33), and Dwight Howard (12.28).
Here's the thing: We know that the Hornets are not going to win 73 games, and it’s also pretty unlikely that CP3 is going to play 82 games or even 75 games (look at his injury history).
Rondo’s projected 16.34 win shares seems much more stable to me. It’s highly likely that the Celtics win the 66 games of which they are expected, and Rondo will probably finish close to the 24.9% OSP that he has currently secured.
I’d also say that Gasol’s 14.93 win shares is pretty safe, and I think that Dwight Howard’s 12.28 is highly likely to come up (the Magic will win more than the 57 games that they currently project to, and with everyone wanting to see Howard’s involvement in the game plan increased, his 21.4% OSP is only likely to go up).
There is a strong narrative component working against Rondo (the notion that he is a product of the “Big Three” and Doc River’s system, and outrage at the idea of an MVP who shoots so poorly) and Gasol (the notion that it’s Kobe’s team, no matter how brilliantly Gasol plays). The race is pretty even between Chris Paul (he’ll fall some, but we don’t know how much, and he’s got such a height to fall from), Rondo, Gasol, and Howard, with maybe Deron Williams as a fifth contender, though I suspect the Jazz won’t be able to sustain their amazing come-from-behind record and will fall off some.
What About the People’s Choices?
What about Kevin Durant? What about the Miami Heat? What about Kobe? ’Melo? D-Rose?
Look, right now Durant is so far off the MVP map (currently he ranks #28) that it’s hardly worth talking about him. I know that dozens of Bleacher Report prognosticators anointed Durant as the next MVP, but forget it (for now)—it was presumptuous to do so.
I said last season that for Durant to win the MVP, the Thunder would have to take the next step and go from 50 wins to 60. Right now, it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.
Also, and most importantly, Durant is NO LONGER THE BIGGEST PRODUCER ON HIS OWN TEAM. Westbrook’s OSP percentage is 25.1, Durant’s is 19.6. That will change, especially as Durant shoots better than he did at the beginning of the season.
But I don’t see Westbrook or even the rest of the Thunder “supporting cast” (Ibaka’s amazing!) backing off what they’re doing, so there’s no way Durant gets back to the 23.1% OSP that he had in the 2009-2010 season, when he finished a distant third in win shares (behind LeBron and Dwight Howard).
As for the Heat, neither LeBron nor D-Wade are in the running right now with the Heat projecting to 49 wins. But let’s face it: The Heat are likely to win more than 49, probably even 60+ once they get straightened out.
LeBron is currently accounting for 23.0% of their OSP (Wade is at 18.6%), and James is not even playing particularly well. He started the season with a ridiculous number of turnovers, but he seems to have gotten a handle on that. While he’s never been a great perimeter shooter, this season he’s been woeful outside of 2 feet (and yet his scoring efficiency is respectable).
LeBron should straighten out his shot somewhat, and his percentage of OSP is likely to go up when Wade inevitably misses 7-10 games at some point in the season (I’m talking likelihood, based on injury histories). If the Heat win 60 and LeBron’s percentage of OSP creeps up to 25%, he would be in the running for MVP. I’d say, realistically, that another MVP award is unlikely this season because of LeBron's negative publicity this summer (a narrative element).
As for Wade, he’s a great great player. Unfortunately, he isn't even the leader on his own team in OSP. Since LeBron is more durable and is likely to play better than he has so far, that’s not going to change.
And Kobe? He’s still great, but he is very unlikely to be even the most productive player on his team during the regular season (that will be Gasol this year, unless he gets hurt). In the post-season, it’ll be a different story: Kobe’s minutes will go up and he’ll take charge more, but right now he and the Lakers are probably best off if he cruises somewhat, which means no regular season MVP.
’Melo and Rose? Two of the most exciting players to watch, but they’re not really in the running. Rose currently ranks 19th with a projected 10.34 win shares—which is not going to get it done (12 win shares is about the minimum). Carmelo currently ranks 30th with a projected 8.74 win shares, not even close to enough.
The Ridiculous
There are people who will talk about John Wall because of how much he does for his team (23.8% OSP), but forget it. The Wizards currently project to 21 wins. It’s not going to happen. Wizards fans, hope for Rookie-of-the-Year.
Conclusion
So there it is for the MVP watch. The clear favorite right now is Chris Paul, but there are big questions as to how many fewer wins the Hornets will get from where they are projected and Paul’s durability over the taxing regular season. Rondo and Gasol will be contenders. Dwight Howard is highly likely to be in the thick of the race. LeBron could creep in, but probably won’t overcome his negative publicity.
