Roy Williams and the North Carolina Tar Heels Face Real Challenges This Season

Lately, it seems the only program in America losing more players in the offseason than Carolina basketball is Carolina football. With Ed Davis headed for the NBA, the Wear brothers for wherever dad thinks they’ll play more, and Will Graves for a fully-funded college degree without the hassle of practice, mandatory study hall, or random drug screens, the Heels are left with just three guys—Tyler Zeller, John Henson, and newly-acquired Justin Knox—manning the middle. And when you consider that Graves, at 6-6, 240, would have been this team’s fourth biggest player, Roy Williams is dealing with a woefully, and literally, thin front line.

But, if the Heels are overrated at No. 9 in the preseason Coaches Poll (No. 8 in the AP)—a disturbing echo in the wake of last year’s No. 4 estimation (No. 6 AP)—the forebodings and reservations emanating from some in Chapel Hill following the recent departures are equally inflated. Here’s why four non-graduation-related farewells could be a good thing for the 2010-11 Heels.

If rumors of Davis’s locker room castigation of teammates for depreciating his draft status are true, then good riddance. A true force on the defensive glass and an intimidating shot-blocking presence, Davis never fleshed out as the scoring threat Heels fans had hoped for, repeatedly failing to come through as a go-to guy when his team needed a bucket.

His breakout as a freshman was largely due to the freedom he enjoyed as Tyler Hansbrough consistently drew double and triple-teams in the post, but this success never translated as Davis became a focal point of Carolina’s offense and opposing defenses alike. Apart from disruptive injuries, his commitment on and off the court were perpetually in question. He quit on us well before his wrist did. We all knew he was checking out early last year; we just didn’t expect him to play like it.

David and Travis Wear were hard-nosed players and brought a certain invigorating energy when they were on the floor, but they weren’t exactly a force on the offensive or defensive end. A combined 6.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, 0.51 steals and 0.13 blocks in 20.5 minutes can hardly be characterized as integral. And most of the damage they did offensively came from outside the lane (see the Graves effect below for why losing perimeter play won’t be a detriment).

On top of that, there is something very odd about your dad asking for a release from your scholarships one week after you told your coach personally how enthused you were about the upcoming season. Roy Williams should be breathing a heavy sigh of relief at dodging three more years with that degree of parental shadowing.

It seems that each of the players that left this offseason took with them an unsettling amount of off-court baggage. And that brings me to Will Graves.

Was it drugs? Was it grades? Does it matter? Disciplinary distractions aside, there are plenty of reasons why losing Graves may be more of a boon than a hindrance for this year’s squad.

Fans will lament the loss of their top returning scorer, but Graves was a shooter, not a scorer—he was responsible for 41 percent of Carolina’s three-point production last year and only 11 percent of their two-point field goals, and roughly half of his points from the field came from beyond the arc. If it’s scoring you’re after, freshman Harrison Barnes will more than make up for anything lost by Graves’s departure (and that of the Wear brothers, too, for that matter).

So, will his shooting be missed? Yes. He was a very good shooter. But last year he was Carolina’s only shooter—and that’s all he could do, making him a predictable assignment for defenders. This year’s team has other shooters, multi-dimensional shooters, with the addition of Barnes, SG Reggie Bullock, and PG Kendall Marshall, not to mention an improved Leslie McDonald and Dexter Strickland. In fact, Roy Williams proposed that, had Graves stayed, the 2011 Heels would be as good a shooting team as the 2009 Heels (think Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, Ty Lawson, Bobby Frasor, etc), which says something about the confidence Williams has in the perimeter game beyond Graves.

Will his size be missed? Possibly. But that size is wasted on the wing in a North Carolina system predicated on speed. The transition game is where Roy Williams teams thrive, and the transition game begins with defense—a side of the game where Graves too often proved a liability.

Whether you attribute it to a lack of athleticism or a lack of effort, the result with Graves was always the same—whether he’s unable to keep his feet in front of an opponent or unwilling to do so, it’s still two points for the other team. While 4.6 rebounds a game last season is nothing to sneeze at from a perimeter player, gains in the rebound arena are offset by missed fast break opportunities and an inability to keep up with smaller, quicker players on the defensive end.

A secondary effect of Graves’s departure will be the emergence of Dexter Strickland. Forced to play point guard for the first time since middle school, Strickland struggled offensively last season. His assist/turnover ratio was the worst among Carolina guards (he’s used to scoring, not distributing), and he shot less than 25 percent from three-point range (having to set himself up for most of those shots).

Free to run at his natural two-guard spot in Grave’s absence, look for Strickland’s points and shooting percentages to rise this year. Strickland also led the team in steals per minute last year (1.9), a stat that should increase even as his minutes rise, as he becomes more of an off-the-ball defender.

So, other than shooting and size, exactly what else are the Heels going to lose with Graves? Leadership? Intangibles? Infectious aggressive play?

I’m sorry, but no. I’m not saying that Graves was a terrible player—his plus/minus rating was the highest on the team and his three-point statistics speak for themselves—he was just an inconsequential one. Graves could cut a 10-point lead to one in a heartbeat, but he could never be relied upon to get you over the hump and give you the lead. He was not the type of player who would take it upon himself to extend a one or two-point lead to a two-possession game at a critical time. In short: he wasn’t a winner.

And to the extent that a winning mentality is measured by a willingness to put team before self, the strength to show up in clutch moments, and the desire to establish yourself as a leader, none of those leaving the team were.

Of the four guys that left this offseason, not one of them ever showed an ounce of the strength or character upon which winning seasons and championship programs are built. They played great when they were up 15 or down 20, and disappeared when the game was on the line. The result: an NIT bid and the title of second-best bad team in the nation.

Considering last year’s bewildering disappointment, a little house-cleaning might not be a bad thing. Get rid of the distractions, get rid of the baggage, and give me 10 guys that want to play, want to lead and want to win. Even if half of them don’t clear 6’4”.

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