ACC Basketball Preview: Duke Blue Devils Lead The Way

So what of the ACC this year?

The ACC is down (relatively), clearly replaced by the Big East, and even on occasion, conferences like the Big 12 and PAC 10, as the best basketball conference in America. But it has also won the last two national championships. Five of the last 10. Eight of the last 20. It is still to be reckoned with. If someone besides Duke or Carolina could please step up and get past the Sweet 16, that would be awfully helpful of you.

So what are the outlooks for the teams this year? Let’s go in order of the ACC Pre-season Media Poll.

1. Duke

There is no reason this Duke team shouldn’t be 12-3 or better and win the conference outright. As Kevin Berger has noted this offseason on March to March, this Duke team should be able to get back to the guard oriented perimeter defense that has been its calling card until last year when Coach K basically turned his team into Michigan St. circa 2000: a slow paced, bruising, rebounding juggernaut. The team will miss Scheyer, but it will miss Brian Zoubek more. The Plumlees are walking personal fouls on both ends of the court, and they’ll both need to step up in their defensive maturity to prevent this Duke team from reverting to the soft on the inside, non-rebounding team it has often been in the past.

Aside: I am secretly hoping that when Marshall Plumlee comes to Duke next year, the brothers grow out there hair, dye it black, put on Kurt Rambis glasses and change their name to Hanson. Still, I think Singler and the sick talent at guard will get them through to an ACC regular season title and a No. 1 seed in the tourney. Just don’t be surprised if a cold shooting night sees them get upset by a No. 4 seed again in the Sweet 16 because of Duke’s lack of an inside presence. I hate that I am typing that, but I’ve seen it too many times.

2011-2012 ACC Enforcers: The Hanson Plumlee Brothers

2. Virginia Tech

Malcolm Delaney is really good, but they are going to miss J.T. Thompson, their leading scorer off the bench.  I wonder how many people took that into account before sending in their vote?  Seth Greenberg is slightly annoying, and his inferiority complex is approaching Gary Williams.  But he has proven to be a good coach and a gamer. 

If he can keep this team motivated this year (they always tend to lose 2-3 games to bottom dwellers), No. 2 is definitely doable.  Va Tech beating Duke in Blacksburg would not be shocking.

3.  North Carolina  

Has a team’s prospects relied so heavily on a single freshman than UNC’s do this year?  Certainly there are teams that have relied on groups of freshmen (Kentucky last year the most obvious example), but if Barnes isn’t spectacular, Carolina may be going to the NIT. 

They just don’t have that much else. 

I’ll believe Tyler Zeller will be a consistent contributor when I see it.  I’ve only seen him play well against Duke.  It’s in him, and I know he’s been hurt.  I am skeptical, however, that he can bring it night in and out.  All that being said, if Barnes is as good as advertised, and other freshmen like Bullock pan out, they could definitely push Duke.  But, man oh man, are they thin.  Their roster is basically 8 players and the Delta Kappa Epsilon intramural team.

4.  NC State

Is this the year that the ‘Pack break through and makes it back to the Big Dance?  Everyone seems to think so, and with Tracy Smith and a stellar freshman class leading the way, it’s certainly possible.  I hope to write a bunch about these guys this year if they remain interesting.  The ACC is a better league when the Wolfpack are competitive.  If they falter this year, Sydney Lowe is gone, and it’s time for another wild coach chase.

5.  Florida State

The ‘Noles never lack for exciting players.  I loved me some Al Thornton.  And they ALWAYS jump up and bite one of the big boys at home every year.  But year after year, they disappoint in the end.  Fifth place in the ACC should get these guys in the tournament, but I think it’s dangerous ranking them ahead of teams like Maryland and even Clemson based on past experience.

6.  Maryland

What can I say?  I love to watch Maryland twist in the wind.  They are the Texas Tech of the east coast, but their fans seem to forget they actually WON SOMETHING.  When Gary Williams isn’t tending bar at Moe’s Tavern and isn’t coaching with his back to the court, screaming at his assistants, he makes “more out of less” better than any coach in the ACC. 

But he’s also the reason they typically have “less.”  He’s abysmal on the recruiting trail these days, and is living off the glory of an 8 year old championship led by unheralded recruits Juan Dixon and Lonnie Baxter.  I believe he thinks he can create that magic again, and although General Grievous Vasquez was quite a find, that still didn’t even get him to the Sweet 16 (although it was heartbreakingly close against Michigan St.).  Good luck, Gary.  

(Aside: Pe’Shon Howard is an intriguing player.  And not just because his name sounds like the sound I make when I shoot my imaginary laser guns at my dog.  Is this Gary’s new find in the backcourt?)

And the rest….

7.  Clemson

Brad Brownell is a good hire, but they’ve lost too much talent, and he’s trying to plug his “round” smothering half court defense peg into the “square” hole that is Clemson’s personnel, recruited to run Oliver Purnell’s press.  They could surprise, but I suspect growing pains.

8.  Miami

Ummm…Frank Haith?  Last chance, my man.  The talent level there doesn’t look too promising this year, either.  Other than that, I frankly know nothing about this team.  To all eight Hurricane basketball fans: I am sorry.  I’ll try to do better.

9.  Georgia Tech

I once thought Paul Hewitt was a pretty good coach.  Then he took his 2004 squad to the Final Four, and I thought he was a potential superstar coach.  The last six years have proven that I was pretty wrong.  How does he fail that spectacularly with the talent he had last year?  A head-scratcher for sure.

10.  Boston College

They fired Al Skinner, and I’m not sure why.  Were they going to do much better with someone else?  This is a team that should be happy to win an NCAA tourney game once every couple of years.  If they finish in the bottom three this year, it’s not coaching.  Steve Donahue should be pretty good.  It’s talent.

11.  Virginia

My sleeper pick to make some noise.  Tony Bennett’s system is incongruent with ACC play, and his players have another year under it.  I think that style of play will trip some people up through the year.  I mean, this guy won at Washington St. with a team led by a Polynesian.  The ‘Hoos have a severe talent deficiency, but may be better off without Sylven Landesberg, who never seemed to mesh with Coach Bennett.  I definitely could see them surprising some folks.

12.  Wake

When you lose your best post player because he is trying to recreate “Ike and Tina, the Early Years,” and you were already picked bottom of the conference, that’s troubling.  It could be a long year for Jeff Bdzdzdzdzelik.  (And possibly longer than expected after losing to a bottle of cheap cologne on Friday night).

So thanks for stopping by.  We are still getting our bearings in the world of Fantake, so the dynamics of this blog may be pretty fluid the first few months.  But hopefully once we roll into ACC season, we’ll be at least moderately more entertaining than your 3:00 PM project status call.

Thoughts?

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