Fantasy Basketball: How Good Is Derrick Rose As a Fantasy Basketball Player?
In almost every fantasy basketball discussion Daniel and I have had this year there has been one consistent point of disagreement that we always seem to go back to, and that is the value of Derrick Rose.
Daniel thinks he’s just outside the top 30 overall, I think he’s borderline top 50, if that. So we finally decided we’d lay our thoughts out and let you be the judge of who has the better case (though only the season playing out will really tell).
You’ve probably already done your draft, but value is important to consider all year long. If you own Rose perhaps you can trade him for more than he’s worth (assuming I am right) or maybe you can get him for less than he’s worth (assuming Daniel is right). Here are Daniel’s thoughts followed by my own.
Daniel Shirley’s Argument in Favor of Derrick Rose
This is the year that Derrick Rose becomes a top fantasy option.
No one can debate that he’s been one of the most talented young players in the league since his debut. His speed off the dribble and ability to finish have clearly shone through from the beginning. Consistency has been the main question leveled against him. His assist numbers have definitely dragged behind the rest of his game.
Chicago’s steady improvement should finally translate into more assists for Rose. The biggest knock against their past teams was the lack of muscle on the inside. The addition of Carlos Boozer gives them that inside presence. Of course, Boozer will be out until sometime after Thanksgiving, so the difference he brings will not be seen for a little while.
Still, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng have become well adjusted to the league and should give Rose more options on the floor. The addition of Kurt Thomas won’t go down as one of the biggest moves of the past offseason, but I like what it does for their frontcourt.
You can bet on an increase in points and assists for the coming season. It may take until Boozer is back on the floor, but it will happen. This is the year that Rose moves from just a player who’s fun to watch to a player who’s fun to own.
There are still guys who will definitely finish ahead of Rose (Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, Stephen Curry, Rajon Rondo, Tyreke Evans), but I think Rose’s complete stat line will be much closer to these guys than many have projected. He will continue to become a more complete player and establish himself as a top scoring point guard in the coming season.
Will Overton’s Argument Against Derrick Rose
Derrick Rose is a fantastic NBA basketball player. I would take him as the leader of my favorite team in a heartbeat and know that one day he could and probably would lead my team to an NBA Championship.
But people forget sometimes that a great NBA basketball player is not the same as a great fantasy basketball player, and Derrick Rose is exhibit A.
Now I don’t have a problem with owning Derrick Rose, I just never will because he will always go higher than he should, this year included. In fantasy drafts on ESPN Derrick Rose went on average at number 34. That’s late third or early fourth round depending on how many teams you have in your league.
That’s one full round ahead of Devin Harris and two rounds ahead of Baron Davis. Is Derrick Rose really that much better than those guys; if he’s even better at all? My answer is no.
A lot of people look at points in fantasy basketball and assume that’s the most important stat. There is no most important stat in fantasy basketball. Derrick Rose led all NBA point guards in points last season. But he was ninth in assists, 25th in steals, non-existent in three pointers and 24th in free throw percentage.
I’m not willing to go so far as to call him a one category guy, but those numbers are pretty lopsided.
The reason I find the point guard spot such an important spot to fill early is because your PG does so many things. If you choose correctly they can be the base for your assists and steals, anchor your free throw percentage and be a big help in three pointers as well.
Rose doesn’t do any of those things. Like I said he was ninth in assists last year and that’s not bad. But the difference between him and No. 7 on the list was two full assists per game.
So if you take Rose you’re forced to key in on another source of assists and you have to do it before the category gets dried up. You also still don’t have an anchor for steals or threes and you have a guy who won’t hurt your free throw percentage, but he’s not going to do much to offset the damage your big men could possibly do.
So I guess the way I see it is that Derrick Rose is a point guard who can be valuable on the right fantasy team, but you have to have just the right mix around him to compensate for the areas he is lacking in. Why are you going to take someone who changes the rest of your draft strategy in the third round of a draft?
Does Carlos Boozer make him a better player? I’m sure he’ll have somewhat of a positive impact. I don’t think he does anything to increase Rose’s scoring, but he might be enough to get Rose an extra half to a full assist per game. But still he doesn’t make Rose a better shooter and he’s not going to have an effect on Rose not getting many steals.
The fact of that matter is Rose is a long way off from the top five in this position, and in my opinion he’s not even top 10. I don’t see Derrick Rose finishing much higher than the tail end of the top 50, if that, and I don’t think he’ll be in the top 10 of all point guards this season.
A great basketball player, but an overrated fantasy player.
What’s your take on Derrick Rose this year? Is he going to take the next step or is he going to continue to be what he has been? And if he does continue to be what he has been is he still worthy of being called a top 40 or even top 50 fantasy player? Chime in and tell us which one of us right and why.
For more player analysis like this check out the other players we’ve looked at on The Rotoprofessor:
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