Michigan-Penn State Preview: Wolverines Look to Snap Skid After Bye Week

Date: Halloween Eve
Location: Happy Valley
Time: 8:00 EST
TV: ESPN
Weather: High 54, Low 37, Partly Cloudy
Line: Michigan -3

Michigan is coming off a bye week after two losses in a row. Penn State got a win over the coach-less Minnesota Golden Gophers last week where they gave up 433 total yards. So what do you make of that?

I think neither team is where it wants to be, and that is competing for a Big Ten championship. Both have two losses in the Big Ten and are holding on for a bowl game. 

There are other similarities between the two:

• They both have first-year starting QBs. 
• Both are injured (it seems Robert Bolden will be out, while Denard Robinson will play).
• Both defenses have struggled.
• Both teams have lost to Iowa.
• PSU is 4-3.
• Michigan is 5-2.
• There are questions about whether both coaches will be there next year.
• Michigan has Michael Shaw, who de-committed from Penn State to go to Michigan. Penn State has Anthony Fera and Kevin Newsome, who de-committed from Michigan.

Who wants it more? That is the most important question on Saturday. Both teams have the opportunity for their seasons to go bad in a hurry. Michigan is sitting at 5-2 with three winnable games in a row in the Big Ten before Wisconsin and Ohio State. Penn State is barley over .500 and needs wins to get to a bowl game. 

The reason Michigan is favored in this game is due to its top five offense against Penn State's banged-up defense. Michigan is expected to run the ball effectively with Denard and its host of running backs. Michigan can also stretch the field with its wide receivers if JoePa overcommits to the run.

Penn State, on the other hand, is really banged up at QB, where the true freshman starter Robert Bolden is most likely out with a concussion he suffered against Minnesota, which leaves Matt McGloin, a walk-on sophomore. When Michigan's defense has played well this year, it has been against teams with young/inexperienced quarterbacks. It's the upperclassmen that have picked the Wolverines apart.

With that said, Penn State does have a talented running back in Evan Royster. I expect Evan to get a lot of carries this week against Michigan's defense, which has given up some big plays in the running game.

Tale of the Tape

Michigan Offense vs. PSU D =  Go Blue

Penn State Offense vs. Michigan's D = A real ugly push

Special Teams = Penn State (better placekicking, punting is a push, return game who knows?)

Intangibles = Push (both need a win; night game at home favors PSU, but talent favors Mich)

I think the Michigan faithful are much more confident in this game than they were at the beginning of the year. With that said, this is not an easy win for the Wolverines, no matter who is playing QB for JoePa. Michigan will have to stop the run and make that young QB beat them with his arm. The Michigan CBs will have to show improvements over the past two games in letting WRs run free.

Sing "Hail to the Victors" if...

• Denard is Weeks 1-5 Denard.
• Michigan doesn't turn the ball over.
  
• The young PSU QB looks young and confused.
• Denard has 150 on the ground, and so do two Michigan RBs.
• The Michigan D gets stops against the young PSU offense.

Shout "I hate saying Go Blue when Penn State is wearing blue jerseys" if...

• Evan Royster is finding huge holes in the Michigan D.
• Matt McGloin is the next Troy Aikman.
• Michigan is sloppy and confused after the bye week.
• Michigan's LBs keep losing contain.
• Michigan beats itself.

I expect the Wolverines to have renewed focus and rest after the bye week and play a very good game. I hope Michigan fixed things on defense and worked in a few new looks on offense. A win equals a bowl game, which they haven't had in two years. With the game on prime time national TV, they should be ready to play.

If Michigan doesn't make the same mistakes it made against MSU and Iowa, it should win the game even if the defense shows up for only part of the time. With that said, I expect Michigan's D to get a lot of stops against Penn State's young offense (examples UConn and ND first half). If Michigan can pressure the young QB and not let Royster beat them, they should be in good shape. Michigan 38, Penn State 24.

GO BLUE!