Denver Nuggets Season Preview: A Position-By-Position Breakdown
Ah, the greatest time of year has arrived for any true sports fan—the fall.
With the NBA tipping off its 61st season today, all four major American professional sports are now up and running, giving any fanatic enough hours of TV competition to make eyes bleed.
Fifteen years ago, Denver was ranked the best sports city by The Sporting News—the Avalanche came to town and brought Lord Stanley’s Cup, the Broncos boasted through back-to-back Super Bowl titles, the Rockies made their first playoff series and the Nuggets were resurgent while beating the No. 1 SuperSonics in the first round of the playoffs.
Oh, how things have changed.
The Broncos have been brought back to Earth, as new head coach Josh McDaniels is a polarizing figure. The Avs are rebuilding and the Rockies are close competitors but not yet contenders for a World Series.
And the Denver Nuggets are anyone’s guess.
There’s a certain malaise that hangs in the Mile High air in Denver.
This is currently one of the most uncertain times in Nuggets history—as arguably their only superstar ever (Carmelo Anthony) looks to be leaving and so many others (Kenyon Martin, JR Smith, Arron Afflalo, Chauncey Billups and head coach George Karl) all probably moving on from the mountains as their contracts come to an end this season.
Billups could be kept, but at a cost of $14 million, the Nuggets will likely buy out his final year for $3.7 million. Also, center Nene could opt out of his final year and become a free agent this summer, although that almost certainly won’t happen in this uncertain economic landscape of the NBA.
With so much insecurity hanging in the air like a tip-ball in slow motion, it’s hard to characterize this Denver team.
Can these Nuggets continue an NBA-best streak of seven straight years of 50-plus wins and playoff appearances?
Or will these Nuggets struggle mightily and fall to the bottom half of the NBA’s wild Western Conference?
One thing is for sure, this team will have to outscore many opponents to win, especially early in the season.
Defensive specialists Martin and Chris “Birdman” Andersen are both out until at least Dec. 1, if not until the start of 2011.
And veteran free agent Al Harrington, who will fill Martin’s shoes as the starting power forward once he is healthy (plantar faciitis), is more concerned with scoring than defending opponents.
As frontcourt forces come back to relieve the fill-ins, the Nuggets may play quite well, or the growing pains of adjusting to different players commingling could be combustible.
Whether or not Melo leaves, this Nuggets team seems like it’s on its last legs—the time for one more championship run is now.
After 2010-11, even if there is no lockout, this Nuggets squad will likely be much different, possibly deconstructed and rebuilt.
But for now, Denver is sporting one of the more talented teams in the NBA, here’s a position-by-position breakdown.
Point Guard, Grade: B+
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Point Guard is arguably the most important position on a basketball court, and it is the Nuggets' biggest strength.
Chauncey Billups (Starter)
Billups was amazing last season, as he became the first point guard in history to average a career high in points (19.9) in his 13th season.
Billups is the unquestioned leader at the position and any time he’s on the hardwood, he facilitates teammates, is a vocal director and can knock down big shots with the best of them.
“Mr. Big Shot” Billups is star 1B to Melo’s 1A and much will hinge on Billups’ production if the Nuggets want to make the playoffs.
The major knock on Billups was his sub-par play in the postseason last April, as he fell off his game, turned over the ball too much and missed needed shots.
It’s likely that he felt too much pressure as running the Nuggets basically fell on his broad shoulders and the team crumpled against the Jazz in the first round.
Ty Lawson (Backup)
Ty Lawson may be the smallest Nugget in stature (5’9”), but he may just have the biggest heart.
Lawson, who was picked up in a 2009 Draft day trade with Minnesota, played exceptionally as the backup to Billups in his rookie season last year.
Lawson is blindingly fast, superbly quick and he can jump as well (Ask Didier Mbanga about getting dunked on by Lawson). Ty Lawson uses his speed to his advantage, runs the floor swiftly and has the ability to drop lots of dimes to awaiting teammates.
Lawson’s not only a budding young player, someone the Nuggets could build around in the future, but he’s got great character—you’ll never hear him complaining about not starting.
Anthony Carter (Bench)
Carter is ancient and it’s a wonder that George Karl keeps him around.
For years, he was touted as “Denver’s best perimeter defender” by Karl, and while the old ball coach doesn’t claim that to be the case anymore, Carter still made the team as another veteran presence that could be called on in case of injury.
Shooting Guard, Grade: C
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Arron Afflalo (Starter)
Arron Afflalo is a young player who not many people have heard of, but they will soon.
The 6’5” third-year guard improved last season as the Nuggets starter at the shooting guard position with career highs in nearly every statistical category including points (8.8), rebounds (3.1) and assists (1.7).
Afflalo has an incredible work ethic and he promises to be even more developed this season as he’s scored 20.4 PPG in eight preseason contests this year, with noticeable gains in rebounds and assists as well.
Afflalo is a hustler on both ends of the court, he can shoot the three-ball with a deft ability and he’s one of the best defenders the Nuggets have.
Along with Lawson, Afflalo could team and turn out to be the next core of players the Nuggets build on in the near future.
J.R. Smith (Backup)
J.R. Smith is a mystery wrapped in an enigma.
He’s at once the most physically gifted athlete on the court, and at the same time shows a large lack of common sense.
Smith can explode to the hoop and throw down huge dunks, while his shooting range is seemingly endless.
And if Smith were to shoot from just behind the arc, rather than 3-5 feet behind it as he’s regularly seen, his percentage and efficiency would both rise greatly.
But Smith is who he is—a man that has to do what he wants and what benefits him, not necessarily the team.
Besides taking ill-advised and too-deep jumpers at times, Smith also lacks ball control and too often fouls an opponent on a break-away run down court.
Still, Smith is basically the scoring threat off of Denver’s bench to begin the season and he will be needed to be instant offense at times during this year.
Small Forward, Grade: B-
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Carmelo Anthony (Starter)
Yes, the Nuggets have Carmelo Anthony as their starter at small forward (at least for now) but they’ve gone too long with essentially only Melo at the three spot.
Melo is a beast, a definite top-10 player in the NBA today.
Anthony’s possibly got the best shot in the game, his jab-step easily creates separation, he can get to the hoop with ease and his passing has improved lately as well.
And, Melo’s not content—he’s talked about improving his rebounding this year as well.
It wouldn’t hurt if he gave more effort on the defensive end and he could become a more vocal leader as well—but neither of those appear to be traits of the great baller.
An additional note; Melo will fill in at power forward to start the season at times due to injuries.
Renaldo Balkman (Backup)
Balkman (6’8” 208 pounds) is somewhat of an unknown.
He looked to be getting better as an NBA player in 2008-09, as he played in 53 games (10 starts) and averaged a career high five points per game.
But last year, Balkman almost never got on the court (13 G, 1 GS) and his production basically vanished.
Balkman will get some playing time at both forward positions early this season, but how much he’s plays as the year rolls on has yet to be determined.
Gary Forbes (Bench)
Gary Forbes (6’7” 220 pounds) is a complete unknown commodity.
He’s a rookie out of Massachusetts and made the team through tough work during preseason workouts. Forbes scored 25 points on 9-14 shooting with two rebounds in the Nuggets' Oct. 22 win over the Suns and it would be a huge plus if he can produce like that a couple of times this year for Denver.
Power Forward, Grade: C-
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Kenyon Martin (Starter, Injured)
K-Mart is a beast, an intimidating force for the Nuggets when he’s healthy.
Unfortunately for Denver, he’s almost always injured.
Martin, who is the only NBA player in history to have micro-fracture surgery on both knees, tore his patella tendon last season and is currently rehabbing. Martin is eyeing a Jan. 1 return to the team, but he’s also not going to push himself to get back onto the court too soon.
K-Mart is Denver’s best defender and their biggest physical threat. Without him, the Nuggets only chance of winning games will be to outscore opponents.
Al Harrington (Backup, Injured)
Al Harrington is a 12-year veteran that the Nuggets got through free agency to add some punch and depth to the frontcourt.
Sadly for Denver, Harrington has been fighting with plantar faciitis for months and will not start for the Nuggets in the season opener Wednesday.
When he’s back though, the 6’9” 250 pound forward will score with his solid mid-range game and grab some rebounds as well. Last year for the Knicks, his averages were 17.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG and 1.5 APG in 72 games (15 GS).
Shelden Williams (Bench)
Shelden Williams, who could turn out to be the finest pickup Denver made this offseason, will start at power forward for the Nuggets Wednesday night.
Williams, a fourth year forward-center from Duke, has lots of potential and he’s been fulfilling it this preseason in the Mile High City.
The 6’9” 250-pounder has scored 12.6 points per game while snagging 7.9 boards in seven games in preseason play and Williams will be getting major minutes to start the season at least.
If he continues to produce at this high a level, look for Williams to become an important piece in the Nuggets puzzle.
Center, Grade: D
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Nene (Starter)
Nene is a good player, but he’s not great.
The big Brazilian baby (Nene means baby in Portuguese) plays much too soft for an NBA center.
At times, he’s ferocious and will slam a thunderous dunk on any opposing center, but the majority of the time, Nene gets lost in the flow of the game.
Too much of the time, Nene allows opponents to get the ball in from close to the hoop and his go-to defensive move is the hands in the air as if to say “I didn’t touch him.”
On offense, Nene is OK on the block and can finish when he wants to, but if he misses a shot or two, he looks like he completely loses interest in the game.
Chris Andersen (Backup, Injured)
The “Birdman” has been grounded due to a knee injury of his own and hopes Dec. 1 is when he can fly around the Pepsi Center again.
Birdman’s a crowd favorite, his huge Mohawk and colorful tattoos are visually interesting and when he gets a high-flying block, it makes fans go wild.
Offensively, he’s a complete liability, but Andersen is much more concerned with the defensive end than scoring.
Melvin Ely (Bench)
Ely is a seven-year veteran and provides great depth for the Nuggets. He’ll get a little playing time early, but unless injuries multiply, don’t expect to see him play much.
Coaching, Grade: C-
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George Karl is a great coach, but he's not a championship coach.
Karl's teams have gone to the playoffs 17 straight seasons, but he has zero championships to show for his entire coaching career.
Then again, he really showed how much he meant to the Nuggets when he had to leave the game he loves when he battled cancer last year.
Adrian Dantley stepped in and Denver went 8-8 to finish the season, dropping from fourth to second in the West, and were stomped by the Jazz in the first round.
The Nuggets also lost Tim Gurgrich and Jamahl Mosley, two important coaches from their bench this offseason as well.
Overall, the Nuggets will have to focus and find an identity sooner rather than later while likely having to outscore opponents.
Regular Season Prediction: 50-32
The Nuggets season tips off tonight at 7 p.m. against their Northwest Division rival Utah Jazz.
Rich Kurtzman is a Colorado State Alumnus and a freelance journalist. Along with being the CSU Rams and Fort Collins Beer Bars Examiner, Kurtzman is a Denver Broncos and the Denver Nuggets Featured Columnist for bleacherreport.com and the Colorado/Utah Regional Correspondent for stadiumjourney.com.
