NBA: Western Conference Preview
1. Los Angeles Lakers
Two words sum up the Los Angeles Lakers: Phil Jackson.
P.J. is back for what he claims is his final go-round, trying to propel Kobe Bryant (32) to an unheard of sixth championship, a.k.a. Michael Jordan’s level.
Ron Artest (31) was the piece that put LA over the edge last season and you could argue that Pau Gasol (30) was the Lakers' best player in the NBA finals against the undermanned Boston bigs.
Notice all the ages I put in parenthesis: This Lakers team is almost as old as the Celtics! Add Derek Fisher (36) and Lamar Odom (31) and the Lakers top five players are either at the end of their primes, or starting the declines of their careers.
I think the Lakers bench has to become more of a factor this year, even during the regular season, to give the Laker’s 30-year-olds some much needed rest.
Shannon Brown may be the best backup guard in the entire league and Steve Blake adds more insurance too in case of an injury or a struggling Derek Fisher. League leader in tattoos, Matt Barnes, will provide a much needed defensive spark off the bench.
Bold Factor: Phil Jackson. Remember, this is the guy who asked Lakers ownership if he could only coach home games last season.
He is going to lose focus during a long 82-game schedule, but remember that Jackson has been to 12 NBA finals and lost only once.
2. San Antonio Spurs
This could be the last stand for the Spurs, who surprised most experts with their first round playoff upset over Dallas last season.
The Spurs were swept by the Suns in the following round and I think bowing out of the playoffs will re-awake, 12-time All-Star, Tim Duncan and company.
One of the most improved players all of last season was Spurs guard George Hill. Last year, Hill started 43 games and averaged nearly 13 points, even handling the basketball in key moments down the stretch. This year, the Spurs are giving him sixth-man role (formerly held by Manu Ginobili) hoping his energy will translate into fast break buckets.
San Antonio thought they made a splash with Richard Jefferson last offseason, but he was an utter embarrassment. The Spurs decided to stick with Jefferson, who I think is going to have a resurgence this season, after his reputation was rightfully trashed in the media.
Also, Tony Parker (who Nabeel said is a Hall of Famer) has been injury plagued in recent seasons; the Spurs successes could hinge on his health.
But does he care? He has a top 10 hottest wife in the solar system.
Bold Factor: Tim Duncan’s backups.
Tiago Splitter. The 6’11” Brazilian was MVP of the Spanish league in 2010. Splitter, the Spurs are hoping, will be a much bigger force down low then recent failures like Oberto and Melvin Ely.
DeJaun Blair is ready for a bigger role too.
3. Utah Jazz
The Carlos Boozer era in Utah is over and I think it is good for both parties.
Boozer was a finesse player with a good 12-foot jumper around the basket. That’s nice and all but that isn’t what the Jazz need from their big man.
The addition of Al Jefferson gives them a true hoss to man the paint. Jefferson (17, 9) is one of the best rebounders in the West and is one of the best post-up offensive players in the league.
I think Jefferson is going to explode this season with a change of scenery and now that he has a top-three point guard in the NBA, Deron Williams.
Williams doesn’t have a weakness in his game. He makes all the right passes, takes the clutch shots and is a good defender (by NBA standards). He is a free agent after this season and many Jazz faithful are hoping to ink him to an extension before the offseason.
Mehmet Okur is coming off a serious knee injury and may not be back until Christmas time.
I think the Jazz need to scrap the Andrei Kirilenko project. Kirilenko himself is injury prone and his skill set is almost too broad. You don’t know what to expect from him night-in and night-out.
Bold Factor: 25-year-old Paul Millsap. The Jazz power forward is going to be asked to become more of a rebounder and low post presence because of the arrival of rookie sharpshooter Gordon Hayward.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder probably will have the league MVP on their young and dangerous lineup, but I’m just not ready to anoint OKC as the class of the Western Conference.
Kevin Durant and his Thunder did push the Lakers to six games in their first playoff appearance in Oklahoma.
The Thunder can breathe a sigh of relief, knowing that Durant is locked up for the next five seasons. Who can we best compare Durant too? Well, Paul Pierce called him Michael Jordan last season, “except he’s a better shooter.”
His combination of height, his three-point range and his knack of getting to the charity line is uncanny in today’s NBA.
Russell Westbrook’s name has been mentioned among the top point guards in the game. His growth last season was the main reason OKC was able to reach that 50-win plateau.
Still, the Thunder are just too young this season to make a playoff push.
I’m not a huge fan of Jeff Green’s game; he kind of plays out of control. His role on offense needs to be more clearly defined. Sefolosha is a top perimeter defender but has no offensive game.
Bold Factor: James Harden. The Thunder’s sixth man had an eye-opening summer league performance in Orlando and is the definition of a slasher.
He needs to realize he isn’t going to be successful as a spot-up shooter in this league, and start taking the ball to the bucket.
Side note: This team needs to trade for a veteran shooter. Peja?
5. Houston Rockets
Surprisingly enough, Houston actually finished above .500 without center Yao Ming, the most dictating force in the NBA.
Not many teams in the NBA can match the Rockets backcourt scoring duo of Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin, who both averaged 20 points in '09-'10.
Last year, Trevor Ariza bit into, ultimate role player, Shane Battier’s minutes, so the Rockets pounced on a four-team trade that landed them Courtney Lee from New Jersey. Lee is athletic and a decent shooter and will end up being a bigger offseason pickup then most of the guys at ESPN will lead you to believe.
I am in love with the Rockets depth: Kyle Lowry, Chase Budinger, Jordan Hill, Chuck Hayes and rookies Patrick Patterson and Ish Smith.
Head coach Rick Adelman is going to have a tough time sitting some of these worthy players on the bench.
Bold Factor: Brad Miller. We all know for a fact Yao Ming is not going to be the same player he once was.
If the Rockets are smart, Yao, 30 years old, will only play 25-30 minutes for the majority of the season, as long as they are winning.
Brad Miller is a playoff veteran and could start on many NBA teams. Houston is lucky to have him in their back pocket.
6. Dallas Mavericks
I think the Mavs are banking way too much on Caron Butler, who folded under pressure in the playoffs last season against the Spurs.
The Mavericks have had their core roster (Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitski) for a couple of years now and have nothing to show for it.
Mark Cuban thinks his team has always lacked the big men to stop the perennial Western powers. But is a platoon of Brenda Haywood and Tyson Chandler a legitimate answer to Dallas’ problems?
Haywood was rewarded $55 million for his 9/9/2 performance last season, apparently a career best, and we all know Tyson Chandler has one skill: finishing alley-oops. By the way, Jason Kidd is 37.
I think once Dallas has another quick exit in the playoffs, Cuban will realize it’s time to change the face of the franchise—yes, get rid of Dirk.
Bold Factor: Unknown. Dirk has never had that sidekick who comes to play every night.
Somehow Cuban has to lure Carmelo to Dallas, either via a trade or next offseason. Dallas simply doesn’t have the young star power to even reach a Western Conference finals.
7. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors made three huge changes this offseason:
1. Chris Cohan is out as owner. Cohan was despised by players and fans and his resume of unsuccessful moves was pages long.
2. Keith Smart is in as head coach. Smart comes from the Bobby Knight family tree, which means he will finally stress defense, something the Warriors haven’t played since the 1990s. Smart also is going to put Golden State in transition. The Warriors are one of the youngest and fastest teams in the West.
3. David Lee. The Warriors sent Anthony Randolph packing to New York in exchange for possibly THE most underrated big-man in the game. David Lee is the ultimate garbage man; he cleans up everything around the glass. Lee is also known as one of the top pick ‘n roll players. Which means huge things for…
Bold Factor: Steph Curry.
Curry is in a class with the NBA’s elite in terms of natural scoring ability. Plus, the combo guard shot over 43 percent from beyond the arc in his rookie season, supposedly an adjustment period for young shooters.
His passing improved all throughout last season too. Throw in role players Louis Amundson, Brandon Wright and rookie guard Jeremy Lin (Harvard). This team will surprise people.
8. Portland Trail Blazers
Why do I have the Blazers barely making the playoffs? Portland lost three key pieces off their bench (Juwan Howard, Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw) plus Rudy Fernandez has bitched and moaned all offseason about wanting to leave Portland for Spain.
When sports fans classify the NBA as an individual sport, you have to look at Portland: All five starters have tendencies to hog the basketball even including point guard Andre Miller.
Brandon Roy is on the cusp of super-stardom but he needs a more pass-first approach from his team.
The center position will be the pivotal reason on how high up in the standings Portland can go. Marcus Camby was the best trade deadline acquisition last February, but the Blazers are hoping to save his legs for the playoffs.
Is it too early to call Greg Oden a bust? Oden’s played 82 games since being selected No. 1 overall in 2007 (over Kevin Durant, I might add). His rust is going to hurt Portland.
Bold Factor: Nic Batum.
The Blazers are counting on their small forward to replace the wings they let go. His defense has never been an issue but the Blazers will need him to improve on his 10 points per game last season.
9. Phoenix Suns
Why did the Suns almost conquer the Lakers in the 2010 Western Conference Finals? Amare Stoudemire: The Suns longtime power forward was so valuable for Phoenix in finishing around the rim.
That dangerous offensive existence is now gone, minimizing the large fear factor the Suns carried for years.
Instead of trying to solely replace Amare, the Suns went about their needs for a forward in the committee version. Phoenix brought in Hakim Warrick, Josh Childress (from Greece) and are now thrusting the disgruntled Hedo Turkoglu into the starting power forward role.
I will say that coach Alvin Gentry is great at adapting strategies to fit his teams strengths. The Suns will shoot more three’s than any team in the West.
I’m worried about this team’s ability to rebound the basketball and obviously play defense.
Center Robin Lopez is going to have to grow up quickly and will be counted on more on the offensive side of the ball. You know what you’re getting in Steve Nash and backup Goran Dragic proved his worth in the playoffs.
Phoenix may get tempted around the deadline to deal Nash for a young big man if they are out of the playoff race.
Bold Factor: Age and the future.
The Suns are relying on Grant Hill (38) and Steve Nash (36) to run a fast-paced offense. If this team struggles early on, Hill and Nash could be very attractive trade bait pieces.
10. Los Angeles Clippers
If you put this exact roster in, say somewhere like New Orleans, I think it could make the playoffs, but because of the stigma surrounding this Clipper franchise, there just isn’t a way LA can sneak into the Western picture this season.
Baron Davis hasn’t been the same scorer since leaving Golden State for Hollywood. His 15 points per game aren’t going to cut it.
Eric Gordon is as fast and as athletic as they come, but he’s often out of control and isn’t a dependable three point shooter.
If the Clippers actually make some noise in the West, it’ll be because of their front court. Chris Kaman played as admirable as any center in the league last year, averaging nearly 19 points and 10 boards.
And I haven’t mentioned Blake Griffin yet, who ESPN’s Bill Simmons said could be a once-in-a-generation type of performer.
Bold Factor: Point guard play.
New head coach Vinny Del Negro gave Derrick Rose all the freedom in the world the last two seasons in Chicago. Will this clear Baron Davis’ head? If not, Eric Bledsoe should handle the reigns. I thought Bledsoe’s game at Kentucky was tailor-made for the pros.
11. Denver Nuggets
How the tides have turned. If you asked me last March who I thought would give the Lakers the best run at their money, I wouldn’t have hesitated: Easily the Denver Nuggets, with Carmelo, Chauncey Billups and array of big men and George Karl.
Then Karl was diagnosed with cancer and it literally sent his team spiraling out of control: Denver lost in the first round of the playoffs to the Jazz (without Okur) and the new front office inherited Carmelo Anthony’s poor attitude and blunt feelings about leaving the franchise.
Carmelo Anthony is an NBA superstar, but is he an NBA winner? ‘Melo took the top prize home in college at Syracuse but his sloppy ball handling and poor shot selection have him overrated in my book.
Billups is an experienced winner but the right pieces just aren’t in place right now in the Rockies.
Denver is dealing with injuries to Chris ‘Birdman’ Anderson and Kenyon Martin that could affect this team's rebounding until their returns near Christmas.
Al Harrington was brought in; he can score 17 points a game but is a liability almost everywhere else on the floor.
Bold Factor: Carmelo’s future.
What team in the East can give you the most for your star, who will NOT re-sign following the season. My best guess would be Orlando or New Jersey.
Denver could leave him out West, but they’d have to constantly take abuse from the media and fans if he led another squad to a title.
12. Memphis Grizzlies
Is Rudy Gay really worth a max contract? Year after year, it seems the Grizzlies reward the wrong players, who in-turn, with their new-found money, seem to blow off becoming a player committed to winning.
Gay is solid, don’t get me wrong, but if he’s your best player you are never going to go to a championship and will struggle every year to compete in the playoffs.
I do like the Grizzlies’ boatload of guards: O.J. Mayo, Tony Allen, Xavier Henry and Greivis Vasquez, but starter Mike Conley has been a clear disappointment for years.
Expect some changes with who handles the rock.
Bold Factor: Frontcourt.
Center Zach Randolph had a career season in '09-'10, and luckily so after Memphis botched the Hasheem Thabeet draft pick. Don’t forget about Marc Gasol either.
13. Sacramento Kings
This is the brightest the Kings roster has looked in years.
Point guard Tyreke Evans and center DeMarcus Cousins have potential to become the most lethal two-some in Sac-Town since Jason Williams and Chris Webber.
Forwards Carl Landry and Omar Casspi are hustle players and quality starters. The Kings traded for Samuel Dalembert to tutor the young Cousins; I even love the young depth off the bench in Donte Green and Jason Thompson.
Sacramento is one of the youngest teams in the league, but they should keep together this nucleus under likeable coach Paul Westphal.
Bold Factor: Tyreke Evans' growth.
Who will become the best point guard from the 2009 draft class: Curry, Jennings or Evans? Tyreke was the best scorer out of that trio but needs to improve his ball-handling.
14. New Orleans Hornets
Chris Paul is overrated. Yup. I said it.
Paul lacks any serious weapons at his disposal in New Orleans and frankly looked bored at times last season. You’re going to see him struggle this season and you’re going to remember I told you first.
Trevor Ariza is Paul’s top option to pass to. You know what you’re getting with David West, and he isn’t going to surprise people anymore.
Isn’t it funny to look back on the many people who were stunned Emeka Okafor wasn’t taken over Dwight Howard in the 2004 draft?
The Hornets bench is full of unproven rejects from other teams; i.e. Joe Alexander, Jason Smith and now Jerryd Bayless.
Bold Factor: Marcus Thornton. The guard from LSU exploded for points randomly last season and needs more minutes to become a proven player.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves
STARTING FIVE: G Luke Ridnour (10.4 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 4.0 apg), G Martell Webster (9.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 0.8 apg), F Michael Beasley (14.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.3 apg), F Kevin Love (14.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 2.3 apg), C Darko Milicic (6.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.1 bpg).
Yucky!
Bold Factor: None. This team sucks private parts.
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