LeBron James: 25 Bold Predictions for His First Season With the Miami Heat
Bold predictions for LeBron James' first season with the Miami Heat are easy to make, tough to backup.
It's a long 82-game season and even longer if you include the postseason. A lot can happen during the next eight months. But one thing is for sure, the bulls-eye on James back is bigger than it ever was.
Between his inability to win a championship, pairing with Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh, and "The Decision" he's in the media and the public's cross-hairs.
Of course that also means winning a championship in June 2011 makes him look smarter than everyone.
In short, the 2010-2011 season should be one of the most compelling in NBA history, mainly because LeBron took his "talents to South Beach."
No. 25: LeBron Won't Play in 75 Games
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James has dealt with a few injuries over the past two years, most notably the elbow that may have contributed to his less-than-King-like play in the 2010 Semi-Conference Finals.
This preseason, we've already seen him be hampered a bit by an injured hamstring.
James has never played a full 82-game season (though he could have in 2008-09; he sat game 82 to rest, not because of injury.)
Still, that's not entirely Jordan-like. Back during his prime in the late 1980s-early 1990s, there was a five-year period in which MJ missed just one game.
With the big money and bigger expectations on the Heat this year, James might catch a few days off to ensure he is 100 percent every time he steps on the court. He'll miss a few games here and there, but still play in more than 70.
No. 24: Dwayne Wade Will Outscore James This Season
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In 2009-2010, James scored 29.7 points-per-game, nearly three points better than Wade. Prior to that, Wade had managed to outscore the King in two of their six seasons in the NBA.
This year will mark the first of several in which Wade outscores James in points-per-game.
In order to win games, James doesn't have to take as many shots in Miami as he did in Cleveland. And with Bosh and Wade far better scoring threats than he had in Cleveland, he won't get hacked as much and the free throw numbers will decline a bit.
James will still hit 25 a night, but Wade will near 30.
No. 23: LeBron Doesn't Finish in the Top 3 MVP Voting
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No matter how many games the Heat win this year, James is going to have a terribly hard time earning a third straight Most Valuable Player award.
Even if the Heat went 82-0, it would be hard consider James as THE MOST VALUABLE PLAYER....again that depends on whether or not you think the MVP should go to the best player or the player who means the most to his team.
Last year, the Heat were a playoff team without both James and Bosh. James may very well be the BEST player in the NBA, but he's just naturally going to lose votes in the MVP race.
He'll split votes with Wade and with Kobe, Durant, and maybe another challenger, James could fall out of the top 3.
No. 22: Cleveland Beats Miami Once
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The Heat have four regular season games with the Cavaliers in 2010-2011, two at American Airlines Arena and two in Cleveland at Quicken Loans Arena.
Miami is astronomically better than the Cavaliers, but that doesn't mean they will sweep all four games. The Heat will clobber them in both home games, and the late-season game at the Q in March.
But in the Dec. 2, 2010 game at Cleveland, the Cavs will pull off the biggest regular season upset in recent memory. James will drop 50+ points, but the scrappy Cavaliers, still-optimistic they can make a run at the playoffs, stun Miami, who is still gelling at this point.
No. 21: LeBron Sits Down With Sir Charles
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They've had a mini-feud in the past few years, basically Barkley disagreeing with LeBron's strategy for free agency.
TNT would be crazy not to arrange a taped interview between the two ASAP to be aired during pregame or halftime of the first NBA on TNT telecast of the season.
It might take a while longer than that, but it either way it would make for great TV. James' response to Barkley's questions about "The Decision" should be interesting.
No. 20: LeBron's Field Goal Percentage Goes Way Up
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For obvious reasons, James won't be taking as many shots in Miami as he did with the Cavalier.
He'll average the same number of quality shots per game that he took in Cleveland, but will be more inclined to dish the ball to Bosh or Wade.
That means he won't take as many lower-percentage shots, which he had to do in Cleveland.
James' .503 field goal percentage last year was pretty remarkable, considering the burden he had with the Cavaliers. Michael Jordan was unable to break 50 percent mark after winning the second ring in the 1991-92 season and MJ's career best was .538.
LeBron will come near that mark. Let's say .525, which is still noticeably up from his 2009-2010 career-high.
No. 19: LeBron Contends For NBA Defensive Player of the Year
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James' defense has improved drastically since he was a young player. He's been named to the NBA's All-Defensive First Team each of the last two years.
With less of a load on the offensive side this year, James can contribute even more on defense. He might not need as many breaks on the bench and will be fresher.
That should lead to a few more steals and a few more rebounds. He finished ninth in the NBA last year, and if his steals-per-game total increases to nearly two per game (he averaged 1.64 last season) he'll get major consideration for the award that Jordan won just once.
No. 18: LeBron Talks Less
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He'll speak to the big shots like Barkley, or do a one-on-one with Tom Rinaldi or whoever at ESPN/ABC.
But it's not absurd to think that James feels a bit betrayed by the media. He was the darling of the NBA just a year ago. Now he is a very polarizing figure.
Right or wrong on both sides, the "race card" incident didn't help convince him that he can trust the media.
He has to speak to the press, by rule. But he won't be thrilled to do so or as open. And with fairly good reason.
No. 17: The Heat Don't Stay Quite at the Trade Deadline
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If the Heat don't bowl over the entire NBA during the first half of the season, look for them to add one player by the deadline.
They won't put in bids for Chris Paul or Carmelo Anthony. But they will probably look to add some kind of piece around the break.
Maybe a three-point shooter like Peja Stojakovic or a big body like Chris Andersen if the Nuggets move toward a fire sale.
Whoever they bring in it will be as much for show as it is for talent.
No. 16: Back To Back Game 7s
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As the top seed playing the sub-.500 eighth seed from the East, the Heat will quickly dispose of whoever they face in the first round.
But the road gets much harder after that. They'll face the Magic in the semis then the Celtics in the finals of the Eastern Conference.
In both series, the Heat will be pushed to the brink. In the end, LeBron gets a small measure of revenge against both: the Celtics knocked him out of last year's postseason, the Magic, the year before.
No. 15: Carlos Arroyo Is the Heat's Key Reserve
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Aside from Chris Bosh and LeBron James, the Heat made plenty of offseason moves: they had to just to fill the roster out.
Bringing back Udonis Haslem was noteworthy, and the acquisitions of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Juwaan Howard and Mike Miller were each fairly big name moves.
And although Mario Chalmers is there, and the team's future at running the point, Carlos Arroyo will be the the Heat's Sixth Man of the Year winner.
He has more experience than Chalmers and should be a key player late in games.
No. 14: The Heat Start Out 8-2
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By the end of the first month of the NBA season, the 73-9 record will seem like quite a long shot.
In their first 10 games, the Heat have to play Boston twice, the Magic and Utah. They'll split with the Celtics, and drop one of the two against Orlando and Utah.
If not for the unbelievable expectations heaped on Miami prior to the season, the media and fans would be pretty pleased with the Heat's start. But because of the Wade-Bosh-James trio, their record will insight near-panic, not promise.
No. 13: Pat Riley Resists the Urge
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There will not be a repeat of the 2005-2006 mid-season head coaching shakeup that involved Pat Riley and Stan Van Gundy.
Even if the Heat struggle at some point in the first half of the season, Riley won't coax a resignation out of young Erik Spoelstra.
Spoelstra is more of a player's coach than Van Gundy was and Riley won't have the same type of problems on his hands that he had in 2005 between Shaq and Van Gundy.
Any speculation will be just that, speculation.
No. 12: LeBron Tops 50 Four Times
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All the talk about James scoring going down is just a natural result of him teaming up with Dwayne Wade, a player who led the NBA in scoring just two seasons ago.
It will be virtually impossible for James to average the same totals (29.7 points) he did a season ago. But that doesn't mean he won't turn out a few incredible offensive performances during the regular season.
Occasionally, he'll feel the need to reassert himself as a dominant player who can score whenever he wants. Maybe it's on a night when Wade is off or sidelined. Maybe just a night when he feels like shooting threes.
James set a franchise/career record in 2008-09 by breaking the half-century mark three times. He'll do one better in 2010-2011...still 41 games shy of Wilt's record, though.
No. 11: Chris Bosh Disappoints
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Somehow this offseason, Chris Bosh got lumped into the category of truly elite players in the NBA.
Because he was in the same draft class and this summer became a part of the LeBron James-Dwayne Wade-Carmelo Anthony trade/free agency talk, he comes off as one of the game's best players.
The past four years, he posted fantastic numbers in Toronto. But let's see what he does when he isn't playing meaningless games throughout the spring.
He very well might be a great player, a potential hall of famer. But let's wait and see.
No. 10: LeBron's Image Improves
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James will never admit that some of the moves he made this summer—mainly "The Decision," but also the free-agent bonanza he created—were a mistake.
He doesn't have to in order to rehab his image. Maybe he'll let go of some of the advisers who've made missteps in the past year. That would help.
But more than anything, LeBron will win back fans and the media with great player and Nike marketing.
The Heat's appearance in the Finals will help. So will a re-boot of the Kobe-LeBron puppets that were so popular two years ago. They'll figure out a way to introduce a D-Wade puppet as well and it will be a funny, viral sensation.
No. 9: San Antonio Sweeps the Heat
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They only play the Spurs twice in the regular season, once at home, once on the road.
But the Heat just don't have what it takes to defeat San Antonio in either meeting.
Both games are terribly close, but Tim Duncan thoroughly outplays Chris Bosh and Miami's merry-go-round at center. And great fourth quarter shooting by Tony Parker help the Spurs topple the favored Heat both times.
No. 8: The Heat Defend American Airlines Arena
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The Heat won't break a record for total wins in a season. They won't even really come that close.
But they will tie another major record, and one that is both recent and associated with their star player.
Miami will be nearly invincible at home in 2010-2011. An early season loss to the Magic will be avenged with 33 consecutive home wins. The streak ends when they fall to the Spurs on March 14.
But by winning the rest of their games—both home and road—they finish with a 39-2, record to match the 2008-09 Cavaliers.
No. 7: The Heat Finish With a 15-Game Winning Streak
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After considerable turmoil throughout the regular season and well past the All-Star break, the Heat switch into cruise control during the final six weeks.
They have to play San Antonio is on March 4. They'll fall to the Spurs in that contest.
But after that, the Heat don't lose another game and ride high into the first round of the playoff's with a 15-game winning streak.
The only tough contest they have during that stretch is April 10, when they host the Celtics. In a preview of the Eastern Conference finals, the Heat easily defeat an aging Boston team that is resting for the playoffs.
No. 6: No More Chalk
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Eventually someone will have enough courage to tell LeBron—to his face—that the chalk splashing is either lame, obnoxious, or just played-out.
LeBron's image took a few hits this summer. Dropping this habit might help gain a few more people to his side....or maybe just keep from more people hopping on the "We Hate LeBron" bandwagon.
No. 5: The Lakers Crush Miami on Christmas Day
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Fueled by a perceived lack of respect, the Lakers, and especially Kobe Bryant, destroy Miami on national television in the much-anticipated showdown on Dec. 25.
The Heat (comparatively) struggle all season on the road and this will be the worst example. The Los Angeles crowd will be especially jacked up for the game—maybe Jack Nicholson will get into a tussle with LeBron for our amusement.
Either way, Kobe drops 30 points on the Heat in the first half and the game is over by the early fourth quarter. Lakers 115, Heat 93.
No. 4: The Heat Don't Approach a 73-9 Record
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Four months is not enough time to mold a team into a world champion. Eight months might be...the Heat very well could win the 2011 NBA Finals in June.
But to think they will bolt out of the game at full speed—they'd have to start at least 25-3 if they think about posting a 73-9 record—is asking a lot.
It might be different if the other 10 players had been playing together and James and Bosh arrived. But that isn't the case.
They'll win 65 games, not 73.
No. 3: LeBron and the Cavs Bury the Hatchet
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Realizing that it does neither party any good, prior to their Dec. 2 game at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland Cavs Owner Dan Gilbert and LeBron meet on the court during warmups.
They'll shake hands in front of the cameras and everyone will take notice.
Gilbert doesn't apologize to James or forgive him for the perceived "betrayal"; James doesn't apologize to Gilbert for anything and doesn't forgive Gilbert for the owner's ridiculous comments this summer.
But the public handshake is enough for both to move on. Not enough for Cavalier fans though, who thoroughly boo and chant all game long. Especially when the Cavaliers shock the Heat.
No. 2: James Nearly Averages a Triple Double
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In Miami, James will embrace the fact that he doesn't have to carry the entire team/franchise/city on his shoulders.
His point totals will drop by a fairly significant number: from 29.7 points-per-game to 24 points-per-game. But Wade's presence on the perimeter and Bosh's athleticism down low (much better than anything he ever had in Cleveland) will allow him to average double-digits in dimes.
With a few weeks left in the season, James' eight rebounds-per-game number will spark a Ted Williams-.406-batting-average-debate as to whether or not he can match Oscar Robertson's record for 10-10-10 averages a game.
He'll come close but fall short with incredible individual number: 24, 10, and nine.
No. 1: The Heat Are Swept in the NBA Finals
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The Heat are just too good not to make it from the East. They don't win a record number of games in the regular season, and they don't cruise through the playoffs.
Orlando and Boston pose considerable threats to them and a post-season meeting with both of them would be difficult. But they'll still rip the East in the Finals.
There they just aren't good enough top-to-bottom to beat the Lakers. Kobe and Phil win a sixth ring together and James—like the city of Cleveland—will have to wait until next year.
