NFL Picks: Which Team Has the Best Shot At Winning the Wild, Wild AFC West
The AFC West is up for grabs.
The records of the AFC West teams are a bit deceiving.
The Kansas City Chiefs lead the division with a 3-2 record. Despite the above 0.500 record, the teams that the Chiefs beat are averaging less than two wins this season (mostly, inconsistent push overs).
The Denver Broncos have faced the hardest schedule in the AFC. Every team they have faced is at least above 0.500. The Broncos have been in every game.
The San Diego Chargers have consistently been a top the AFC West, however, this year they have struggled in all phases of the game, especially special teams.
The Oakland Raiders have injuries and unknowns at the game's most important position: quarterback. It looks like the Raiders may try out their third starting quarterback since the start of the season in Kyle Boller, who has lost all 10 of his most recent starts.
As we come upon Week 7 of the season, I will break down each team's season so far, and predict how the AFC West will end up.
Kansas City Chiefs (3-2 Record)
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In Week 1 when the Kansas City Chiefs welcomed the San Diego Chargers to Arrowhead Stadium, many thought that the Chargers would continue their dominance of the division.
A fumble set up the Chiefs for the go-ahead lead in the 2nd Quarter and then Dexter McCluster returned a kickoff 94 yards to give the Chiefs a two touchdown lead before halftime. This success injected them with the confidence that they could win the division.
In Week 2 the Chiefs barely escaped the Cleveland Browns.
In Week 3 they faced a confused San Fransisco 49ers team in Week 3, which they easily beat.
Although the preseason was not indicative of the weak schedule the Chiefs were handed, they remained "confident" going into a bye in Week 4.
However, despite the week off, the Chiefs were not ready for two fast, explosive offenses they faced in both Weeks 5 and 6. The Chiefs were in the game against the Indianapolis Colts, and lost a shootout with the Houston Texans. Both teams are now 4-2 and are fighting for control of the AFC South with the Tennessee Titans.
The Chiefs, despite recent losses, are contenders and are for real.
Denver Broncos (2-4 Record)
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I will start by reiterating that the Broncos have had the hardest schedule in NFL so far this year. None of the teams that the Broncos have faced are under 0.500 at this time. The Jacksonville Jaguars were probably the easiest team the Broncos faced in Jacksonville. It was a game that the Jaguars were revved up to win since the past several years the team that won the AFC South started the season strong.
The Jaguars were a very difficult opponent. Stupid penalties handed the game to the Jaguars in the end.
Stupid penalties have characterized the Broncos season. Mental errors have also plagued the Broncos. Another failure has been the team's failure to execute on crucial plays in games.
These flaws have been why the Broncos cannot beat the elite teams in the league. In each one of these games the Broncos were in a position to win a big game, and then choked.
In order to win in this league, they must correct these crippling maladies.
San Diego Chargers (2-4 Record)
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Statistically, the San Diego Chargers are near the top of the league. They are ranked 1st passing the ball and defending the pass. Running the ball they are ranked 13th and stopping the run they are ranked 6th.
Why has it not translated to success on the field? Every game that the San Diego Chargers have lost, the Chargers have been playing from behind at halftime. Several of those games, the Chargers were down by double digits in the 1st quarter.
The Chargers then become more unbalanced and have to ramp up the offense, throwing the ball, in order to come back.
The Chargers haven't lost by more than eight points in any of those games, however, by the end of the game, the offense is out of energy and they start to make some crucial errors, such as the lost fumble in the 4th quarter that was returned 64 yards for a go-ahead touchdown against the Raiders in Week 5.
In key situations the Chargers have also lost badly on special teams, surrendering huge returns, some for touchdowns, which really amount to giving away free points to your opponent.
That hurts.
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Oakland Raiders (2-4 Record)
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The Oakland Raiders have lost some heart-breakers against teams it could have beaten. The revolving door at quarterback due to poor play and injuries has really hurt the Raiders.
Jason Campbell hasn't lived up to his billing as the next "Jim Plunkett" for the Oakland Raiders. When you look at his stats with the Redskins and how mightily they have struggled at the quarterback position for so long, Raiders fans should have known.
This poor play led the Raiders' coach, Tom Cable to make a switch after one week, when Campbell was blowing the game against the St. Louis Rams. When the new starter, Bruce Gradkowski plays the Raiders are a completely different team.
There is some excitement and hope on the field, but unfortunately for the Raiders, Gradkowski has been banged up.
The Raiders defense's biggest vulnerability has been an inability to stop the run. Ranked 30th it has made everything on defense difficult for the Raiders. Their failure to stop the run has been the key to victory for all of the teams they've faced.
4th Place: San Diego Chargers (Prediction 5-11)
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The mental mistakes and errors will continue to devastate the San Diego Chargers as the season only gets harder for the Chargers.
A string of losses midseason will continue to aid the Chargers' downward spiral. I believe these losses will get to their psyche and will affect games that the Chargers should win.
It's going to be a long rest of the season for the Chargers.
Side note: Vincent Jackson returns in a couple weeks but he won't be 100% since he hasn't worked with the team all season, and he is ready to join a new team because of how the Chargers have treated him. He will not be willing to lay his body on the line for a team who doesn't want him.
3rd Place: Oakland Raiders (Prediction 6-10)
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If the Oakland Raiders continue to improve this season, I believe they will move up, out of the dog house, and ahead of the San Diego Chargers this season.
Running the ball, the two-headed monster that is Michael Bush and Darren McFadden will keep the Raiders in every game this season. If Bruce Gradkowski can get healthy and then stay healthy, the Raiders will surprise some teams in close games.
Some key wins could boost their six win prediction to seven or eight wins, but ultimately, they will fail to miss the playoffs behind the Broncos and the Chiefs.
2nd Place: Kansas City Chiefs (Prediction 9-7)
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The Chiefs have surprised the league with their quick start, but they have also shown that they may be overrated in the two straight losses the last two weeks.
Two areas that the Chiefs have excelled in this season have been their defensive secondary and the run game with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones.
However, Matt Cassel at quarterback has occasionally been a liability for the Chiefs. Down the stretch, at the end of the season, with Matt Cassel at QB the Chiefs will not have enough to go beyond their early successes.
Key games late in the season will go against them and leave them just out of the playoffs.
The Kansas City Chiefs will trail the Denver Broncos by a game in the AFC West. It will be the loss at home towards the end of the season against Denver that will spell their doom.
1st Place: Denver Broncos (Prediction 10-6)
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The Denver Broncos have yet to play a game in the AFC West. This is a good thing. This year, I predict that the Denver Broncos will finally show the rest of the division that they are the team to beat. This week against the Oakland Raiders will be just the beginning. A convincing victory against a rugged Raiders team will signal a turning of the tide.
Despite the rough start against the best teams in the NFL, the Broncos will turn around their season against easier teams, and make changes to fix critical flaws that have debilitated them all year.
The young offensive line have made strides every week against difficult defenses and will continue to improve. Head coach Josh McDaniels has made new strides at incorporating new looks and creative plays on both sides of the ball.
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