2010-2011 NBA Predictions: Can Dwight Howard Enter Legitimate MVP Conversation?

Dwight Howard is looking great so far this preseason.  No, really, he is looking great.  He has added a mid range jumper to his arsenal, a move he practiced with on occasion last year, but this year he is shooting it with a fresh sense of confidence and is not afraid to unleash it during games. 

Over the summer, Dwight Howard worked with Hakeem Olajuwon to learn some new tricks for his bag on offense.  Hakeem, renown for his footwork, showed Dwight moves that he can do to shake off larger opponents, or to spin past players for easy shots in the lane. 

But can Dwight be a legitimate factor in MVP conversations?

I think he can.  His defense is his calling card, and it helps to make the Magic into one of the best defensive teams in the league.  On a nightly basis, Dwight Howard is collecting the blocks at a league leading 2.8 a game (if he played in the era before the 3 second defensive rule, he might be averaging 5 a game), and he is averaging 10.1 defensive rebounds a night, too. 

Even last year, when frustrated against the Bobcats offensively in game one (he mustered only five points), he managed to block nine shots, while changing many more, causing the Bobcats to struggle badly offensively.  It's these sometimes unnoticed contributions that should propel Dwight Howard up in MVP votes.

But for it to happen, it will require an improvement on offense.  He must establish himself as a clear cut number one option within the offense and demand the ball.  Last year he took 2.2 less shots a game on average than in 08-09.  If he wants to be an MVP, he is going to have to get around 15 attempts from the field a game, in addition to the 10 attempts he gets from the line a night.  With 15 attempts, Dwight should realistically score between 24 and 26 a game, even if he does struggle from the line.  A line of 25 ppg, 13 rpg, and 3 bpg could be the difference to win the award over a Kobe, Lebron, or Durant.

If you're trying to measure pure impact on a team and on a game, Dwight Howard has to be on that level of dominance.  It's hard to quantify just how much better he makes the Magic defensively.  Without Dwight, they would be a middle of the road to bad defensive team, but with him they hold opponents to 43.8 field goal percentage, and allow only 95.3 points a game (while shooting 47 percent and scoring 102.8 a game themselves). 

Another factor that could win the award for Dwight is total team wins.  If the Magic can find a way to obtain the league's best record (they were 2nd best last year), ahead of the Heat and Lakers, Dwight will have to be seriously considered as the league MVP. 

Many of you are thinking, "How can the Magic possibly beat the Heat in total wins?"  To you I say consider the case of the US Olympic teams in the past.  Against teams with far less talent, they often struggled to win.  Why?  Because basketball is a team game.  The most talented team does not win all the time, but rather the unit that plays most cohesively often pulls off the win.

If Dwight can lead the Magic vocally and by example, towards being a strong and unified unit, a real team, then they can certainly give the Heat problems.  If, however, the Magic attempt to isolate too much and play a one-on-one game, then they are playing right into the Heat's hands.  It is ball movement and chemistry that will enable the Magic to be triumphant in the regular season and in the playoffs, and it is Dwight Howard that is the key to that cohesion and unity.