Fantasy Basketball Position Breakdown: Shooting Guards

It’s now time to take a look at how things breakdown at the shooting guard position. It’s an interesting year a lot of guys getting bigger roles, a lot of guys getting older and some new guys trying to make their way onto the scene. Take a look at how I think things will shake out as I rank my top 40 shooting guards and offer some advice to follow.

1. Kobe Bryant – Los Angeles Lakers
2. Dwayne Wade – Miami Heat       
3. Brandon Roy – Portland Trail Blazers
4. Andre Iguodala – Philadelphia 76ers
5. Tyreke Evans – Sacramento Kings
6. Monta Ellis – Golden State Warriors
7. Joe Johnson – Atlanta Hawks        
8. O.J. Mayo – Memphis Grizzlies
9. Eric Gordon – Los Angeles Clippers
10.  Manu Ginobli – San Antonio Spurs
11. Jason Richardson – Phoenix Suns
12.  Stephen Jackson – Charlotte Bobcats    
13. Kevin Martin – Houston Rockets
14. Gilbert Arenas – Washington Wizards
15. Ray Allen – Boston Celtics
16. Caron Butler – Dallas Mavericks
17. Trevor Ariza – New Orleans Hornets
18. John Salmons – Milwaukee Bucks
19. Jason Terry – Dallas Mavericks
20. Vince Carter – Orlando Magic
21. Marcus Thornton – New Orleans Hornets
22. Jamal Crawford – Atlanta Hawks
23. Terrence Williams – New Jersey Nets
24.  Leandro Barbosa – Phoenix Suns
25. Mike Miller – Miami Heat
26. Ben Gordon – Detroit Pistons
27. J.R. Smith – Denver Nuggets
28. James Harden – Oklahoma City Thunder
29. Wilson Chandler – New York Knicks
30. Josh Howard – Washington Wizards
31. Richard Hamilton – Detroit Pistons                                            
32. Anthony Morrow – New Jersey Nets
33. Kalenna Azubuike – New York Knicks
34. Corey Brewer – Minnesota Timberwolves
35. George Hill – San Antonio Spurs
36. Evan Turner – Philadelphia 76ers
37. Wesley Johnson – Minnesota Timberwolves
38. Demar Derozan – Toronto Raptors
39. Brandon Rush – Indiana Pacers
40. Josh Childress – Phoenix Suns

• Brandon Roy played hurt last year for more of the season than people realize I think. And he still posted 21.5 points per game. Roy is on the verge of closing the gap between him and the two guys above him. Portland is a good team, but Roy is the man and everyone there knows it. I think he’ll be closer to 25 points a game this year than 20. And with the added help he brings in boards and assists.
• There is a lot of talk about how Keith Smart taking over as coach is going to affect Stephen Curry, but I think the greater effect will be on Monta Ellis, if there is one. It’s unclear if Smart will try and slow the game down or not, but if he does it could slow Ellis down who thrives in the transition up tempo offense. Also Monta Ellis isn’t the only show in town now with Curry coming into his own and David Lee in town it’ll be difficult for Ellis to get up 22 shots a game again which will bring his scoring totals down.
• I am a big believer in Eric Gordon and that’s why you see him higher here than most other places. He was hampered by injuries last year and still improved on his rookie season. I think he is primed to really break out this year. Playing with Team USA should have given him a boost and he has the green light to shoot in L.A. which means he could easily get to or above 20 points a game in my opinion.
• Jason Richardson not being in the top 10 isn’t a slight against him, it’s just a crowded group and there are a couple young guys I think ready to take off in Gordon and Mayo. J-Rich is now the main guy in Phoenix when it comes to scoring and he should take advantage of the extra looks. If he keeps up what he did from behind the arc last year he should close back in on 20 points a game.
• Trevor Ariza was a disappointment last year when he was supposed to be the star of the show in Houston. This year he is in a much better place as he’ll be at best the third option in New Orleans with no pressure to light up the scoreboard. Ariza is a stat stuffing machine who can contribute just about anywhere, and with better looks the FG percent should go up a good bit.
• There is going to be open shots a plenty in Miami this year and that’s the reason the Heat signed Mike Miller, to capitalize on that. With Lebron James and Dwayne Wade on the floor together Mike Miller isn’t going to get much attention and that could easily give him a chance at clearing two three-pointers a game and 14 or 15 points.
• I’m not sure there are enough shots to go around in New York, but Chandler and Azubuike are going to be doing their best to get plenty of their own. Both guys will probably see pretty similar minutes and should put up pretty similar stats as well with right around 14 points and five rebounds.
• Injuries have slowed Josh Howard down over these last couple of seasons, but I still have visions of his last full season healthy when he scored 18 points a game for the third straight year and was a top 50 player for fantasy purposes. Now he’s 30 and coming off a knee injury, but somewhere there the talent still remains. If he can get healthy and play at 100 percent I think he is still capable of 15-16 points per game with six rebounds, a steal and some threes which is solid for where he is going in drafts.

Sleeper: James Harden. Thabo Sefolosha might still be the starter because of his lock down defense, but I have a feeling Harden is going to see a lot more than the 22 minutes a game he saw last year and they should be even more quality minutes than last year. Harden has the ability to score and while there Durant is the main man, Harden is good enough to be the No. 2 guy when he is on the court. If he comes off the bench all year Harden should be a front runner for Sixth Man of the Year and if he gets the 27 – 28 minutes I expect he could close in on up to 15 points per game as he continues to improve.

Deep Sleeper: Kyle Korver. This one is as it says for deep leagues only, but I think Korver is a sneaky play this year. The Bulls added Ronnie Brewer to the mix and he is set to start, but I think Korver sees over 20 minutes per game and he could play his way into even more. The one thing the Bulls lack is a great perimeter shooter and Korver is the only guy on the team who can fit that bill, and he is one of the best pure shooters in the game. With Noah and Boozer both down low and Rose’s driving and mid-range game, there should be a lot of open looks from outside and if Korver gets some good looks he could be a big help in threes and also be a contributor in points.

Bust: Caron Butler. Something is going to have to give minutes wise in Dallas and it could be Butler. Beaubois is all the talk in Dallas and while some think his playing time will come at the expense of Jason Kidd, I think it could be Butler who dips dangerously close to 30 minutes per game this year. On top of that I think you can expect a bit of a dropoff in rebounding as Butler could be sharing the floor with Marion, Nowitzki and Haywood, which doesn’t leave many boards to spare. Butler has hit 30 and while I don’t think there is going to be a huge decline in production, I do think he’s going to take a hit and some of the younger guys are ready to pass him up.

What do you think about these guys? Who are you targeting and who are you avoiding as you prepare for your draft?

Check out my Point Guard breakdown here