NBA Fantasy Position Breakdown: Point Guard

During this week, we’re going to break down each of the five positions on the court and do positional rankings, as well as analysis of sleepers and busts. I’ve only included my top 40 guys here, so if you have a question about someone not on this list, just let me know.

1. Chris Paul – New Orleans Hornets
2. Deron Williams – Utah Jazz
3. Stephen Curry – Golden State Warriors
4. Jason Kidd – Dallas Mavericks
5. Steve Nash – Phoenix Suns
6. Rajon Rondo – Boston Celtics
7. Tyreke Evans – Sacramento Kings
8. Chauncey Billups – Denver Nuggets
9. Monta Ellis – Golden State Warriors
10. Darren Collison – Indiana Pacers
11. Russell Westbrook – Oklahoma City Thunder
12. Aaron Brooks – Houston Rockets
13. Derrick Rose – Chicago Bulls
14. Mo Williams – Cleveland Cavaliers
15. Devin Harris – New Jersey Nets
16. Baron Davis – Los Angeles Clippers
17. John Wall – Washington Wizards
18. Brandon Jennings – Milwaukee Bucks
19. Raymond Felton – New York Knicks
20. Tony Parker – San Antonio Spurs
21. Gilbert Arenas – Washington Wizards
22. Rodney Stuckey – Detroit Pistons
23. Jrue Holiday – Philadelphia 76ers
24. Jameer Nelson – Orlando Magic
25. Andre Miller – Portland Trail Blazers
26. Mike Conley – Memphis Grizzlies
27. Beno Udrih – Sacramento Kings
28. Jose Calderon – Toronto Raptors
29. D.J. Augustin – Charlotte Bobcats
30. George Hill – San Antonio Spurs
31. Mike Bibby – Atlanta Hawks
32. Lou Williams – Philadelphia 76ers
33. Jonny Flynn – Minnesota Timberwolves
34. Jarrett Jack – Toronto Raptors
35. Shaun Livingston – Charlotte Bobcats
36. Ramon Sessions – Cleveland Cavaliers
37. Kirk Hinrich – Washington Wizards
38. Luke Ridnour – Minnesota Timberwolves
39. Rodrique Beaubois – Dallas Mavericks
40. Jeff Teague – Atlanta Hawks

• Deron Williams is the unquestionable No. 2 point guard in my mind. Some have suggested that Boozer's departure could hurt Deron’s production, but I think the increased minutes for Millsap and the addition of Jefferson will bridge the gap just fine. Williams had career highs in steals, rebounds, and threes last season and could add to those numbers again this year.
• A lot of people think this could be the year Kidd hits the wall and slows down considerably. He is my No. 4 point guard: Obviously, I am not among that group. I think there are a lot of really good young PGs coming up behind Kidd and Nash, and they’re going to pass them eventually, but next year is more likely. Kidd gives big time contributions in threes, steals, and assists, while also keeping his turnovers down. Not to mention a solid five or six rebounds a game. Don’t stick that fork in him quite yet.
• One of the guys people are putting in front of Kidd and Nash is Rajon Rondo after his breakout performance in the playoffs last year. Rondo has some work to do though. The two key areas that you look for in a PG: FT percentage and threes. I like Rondo, and he’s turning into an elite PG, but I’m not ready to put him in the top five for fantasy.
• Tyreke Evans was another guy that was hard for me to rank, and he might be a guy who ends up biting me based on this ranking. But, I see Udrih spending a lot of time in the back-court and being the ball-handler a lot of times, so I don’t know how much of a step up we can expect from Evans in terms of assists. He also needs to improve his jumper, going 36–141 from three-point range is going to hurt.
• Baron Davis is a guy that I have wavered on recently. I was originally higher than most people on him and had him just outside the top 10 when I first started working on this. But his coming into camp out of shape and seeming not to care is a red flag for me, especially when you consider Baron is already an injury concern.
• Mike Conley is intriguing, as it is still widely assumed that he has the potential to be a top-20 point guard, but just hasn’t put it together yet. It appeared that he was starting to get things going toward the end of last year though, as he scored 16.3 points per game and had 5.5 assists over the last 23 games. Memphis has a solid team and a lot of scoring options for Conley to get the ball to. He has the upside for 15 points and 7 assists a game this season.
• D.J. Augustin looks like the starter as of right now in Charlotte, but a lot of reports are indicating that Shaun Livingston has looked really good in the early going, and might push Augustin for time. Whichever one wins the job could be a nice sleeper option late in drafts.
• Another guy to target late if you’re looking for assists could be Ramon Sessions. Anthony Parker is going to be the starting shooting guard, but word is that if he struggles, the Cavs are already considering moving Mo Williams to the two-guard spot and making Sessions the starter. This makes Sessions a sneaky pick in deeper formats.

Sleeper: Jameer Nelson. He’s only a year removed from a season with 16.7 points per game, and while there are a number of guys who can score and love to score in Orlando, Nelson is still capable of getting his. He struggled last season, but he played his best ball down the stretch, scoring 15.1 points a game over the final eight regular season games and then scoring 19 points per game in the playoffs. I think Nelson is very capable of getting back to 15 points and six assists per game and could easily be a top-20 point guard again.

Deep Sleeper: Jeff Teague. There’s a new coach in Atlanta who isn’t married to Mike Bibby as his point guard the way Mike Woodson was. Bibby had career lows in nearly every single category last season, and with the Hawks on the cusp of breaking into the upper tier in the Eastern Conference, they might not have the same patience with him this year. If that’s the case, Jeff Teague could have a breakout year in his sophomore season. When he got minutes last season, he flashed his potential; unfortunately, his minutes were limited. I think Drew is going to give him a chance to play this year, and if he can capitalize, he could be splitting time evenly within a couple months, if not taking the starting job.

Bust: Raymond Felton. Felton is a guy I’m just not all that excited about, and in hindsight, I likely had him overrated in my Top 200, though I tried to adjust that here. He turned his field goal percentage struggles around a bit last year, but I am not convinced it wasn’t a fluke. A lot of it had to do with better shot selection and not taking as many threes; however, I fear that entering into the run-and-gun style of Coach D’Antoni, he may relapse a bit and start firing up bad shots once again. Toney Douglas, who is behind Felton on the depth chart, is a much better shooter and might be the kind of guy D’Antoni would fall in love with having on the court. Felton still cracks my top 20, but I think he’s a long way off from the top 15.

What do you think about the Point Guard position? Do you agree or disagree with my rankings? What about sleepers and busts? Have any of your own to offer? I’d love hear your thoughts.

To check my Top 200 Overall Player Rankings you can go here:
1 – 50
51 – 100
101 – 150
151 – 200