The BCS Breakdown: A Roiling Tide

Stunning Developments in the SEC

Holy crap. What a slate of games we saw today. The SEC games were particularly riveting.

Alabama’s two TD loss at South Carolina has major implications for the BCS the rest of the year. We’ll touch on several of these issues in more detail, including the possibility of the non-AQ contenders moving a notch closer to Glendale, the acknowledgment that the SEC may still be in the running for the national title, and the continued strength that the Big XII brings to the table in the NC discussion.

But let’s really step back and think about what Bama’s loss means. It means the defending national champions have sustained their first regular season loss in quite some time. It means the Tide now need the help of others if they wish to repeat as national champions. Although a 12-1 SEC champion Tide can make a strong case (if they are capable of running the table), they will likely take a back seat to several other undefeated contenders from power conferences unless chaos prevails. It puts the conventional wisdom of the 2010 BCS race completely on its head.

Alabama losing most certainly means the 2010 BCS race gets a lot more interesting.

Taking Inventory

There are 13 undefeated teams left in the FBS. Four are in the Big XII (Missouri, Nebraska, OU and OkSt), two in the Big Ten (MSU and tOSU), two in the SEC (Auburn and LSU), two in the MWC (TCU and Utah), two in the WAC (Boise and Nevada), and one in the Pac 10 (Oregon).

I’m including the conference rankings and team projected SOS rankings this week, but this will be the final week for these two figures. The conference relative rankings are pretty much set at this stage (SEC and Big XII very ahead of the pack). Not to mention, next week, we need to actually put pencil to paper and start looking at some actual BCS rankings/projections. Get your spreadsheets ready, fellow dorks!

Ohio State

Ohio State will be the new consensus No. 1 in the human polls tomorrow morning, and with Bama losing, it probably means the threat of an unbeaten Ohio State getting left out of the title game is less of a possibility.

I’ve alluded the past several weeks to Ohio State’s schedule being somewhat of an albatross, but a solid No. 1 position in two-thirds of the BCS (the coaches and Harris) will probably mean it won’t be an issue; unless, of course, they get jumped after a subpar performance down the road.

At this point, Buckeye fans should feel reasonably secure. A Duck or Husker/Sooner loss would make Ohio State feel very comfortable.

Big XII

Nebraska’s solid performance against KSU was very notable, and if the Huskers can run the table, I think they would eventually jump Oregon, Boise, and TCU in the human polls (not to mention the BCS standings with computer strength at their backs). I continue to believe an undefeated Big XII champion has an inside track to Glendale.

OU currently has the second strongest projected schedule in the country (not factoring in a potential game against Nebraska), but they have yet to perform on the field in a manner consistent with what we’d expect from a potential undefeated NC contender. Several tough road tests remain for OU.

The New SEC Generation

What are we to make of Auburn and LSU? Auburn has now had three narrow three point victories on the season, while LSU has also won four games by a margin less than a touchdown (including a fortunate victory in Knoxville). If either of these unexpected SEC West contenders were to run the table, can they make a play for Glendale?

The projected schedule strength indicates the answer to this question is a resounding yes. LSU, in particular, has an unbelievably strong schedule (and this doesn’t factor in the SEC championship). My problem with going too far down this road is that I still don’t believe (in my gut) that either team is capable of winning out. I’ll add them to the radar, but until we see either of these teams get through October with their undefeated record intact, I think they should warrant little attention. Sorry Les. Sorry Gene.

Boise and TCU

Well, let’s call a spade a spade. Bama’s loss is the Broncos’/Frogs’ gain. Without question. We now have a situation where we might be an Oregon, Nebraska, and OU loss away from a really hairy situation.

TCU and Boise are now seeing their projected SOS rank in the 50s (out of 120 FBS teams), which means that they may not be held back in the computers as initially thought. It certainly doesn’t look like they will fare as badly in the computers as previous seasons have shown.

I’m still not sure Boise and TCU get to the national title game if all the major conference contenders sustain one loss. TCU may have somewhat of a platform game against Utah coming up. But when you just step back and look at their remaining schedules (TCU: BYU, AF, UNLV, Utah, SDSU, NM; Boise: SJSU, LaTech, Hawaii, Idaho, Fresno, Nevada, USU), it’s just hard to get really excited. They are not going to command a lot of attention while some pretty viscous conference races play out around the country.

Ask yourself this question. If Bama somehow regroups and proceeds to beat undefeated LSU and Auburn, and beat South Carolina in a potential rematch in Atlanta, do you really think they should be second fiddle to a Boise or a Utah? Seriously? I don’t think most voters will, but I’ll admit this is my opinion. An opinion I firmly believe most will share if the scenario plays out, but an opinion nonetheless.

Let’s give TCU and Boise credit. Their odds of the impossible dream have increased in probability this weekend. The initial BCS release a week from tomorrow will be fascinating. I’ll also be curious how much they move up with Bama’s loss today in the coaches poll.

Some interesting games of note on the weekend:

Some scores you may have seen on a random ESPN ticker that are noteworthy:

Utah 68, Iowa State 27 – Wow, what an ass-kicking. The Utes are poised to become a solidly positioned top 10 team after annihilating the Cyclones. Utah’s success will be helpful for TCU, and one would expect their eventual matchup may garner the national spotlight for that weekend (Gameday, etc.). Heck, Utah could assume TCU’s place as a BCS-buster if they can knock of the Frogs.

Florida State 45, Miami 17 – A surprising upset in the ACC, and a game that has meaningful ramifications for Oklahoma and Ohio State, particularly if both teams jockey for NC contention against each other later in the year. I continue to think Ohio State has problems with the computers, but Bama’s loss today may make it a moot point should the Buckeyes win out.

Oregon State 29, Arizona 27 – Very good development for the BCS busters. Oregon State had not really delivered much thus far in 2010, but beating an undefeated, top 10 Wildcat team on the road is a feather in the Beavers’ cap…. Meaning both Boise and TCU get a little bit more “prestige” associated with their victories over Oregon State.

Bottom Line?

With half the season in the books, we now appear to have an Ohio State vs. Big XII match-up as the “default” scenario. Ducks, Frogs, and Broncos are all watching very closely. Auburn and LSU want to make sure we don’t forget about them. Bama can still claw their way back into this thing even with a loss, but they’ve got a lot ahead of them. Florida is most certainly toast.

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