NBA Preseason 2010-2011: Top 10 Biggest Misconceptions
Sometimes NBA fans place too much emphasis on the preseason. Player injuries can seem catastrophic, and observers tend to jump on the bandwagon of top-performing teams in these early games.
The preseason is a great opportunity for teams to try out new lineups and players and to mesh new offensive and defensive sets. I like to consider this time of year as an experiment.
But one must remember that before success can be achieved, failures are often a necessary part of the process. Thomas Edison failed hundreds of times before he was successful in inventing the incandescent light bulb.
Similarly, Michael Jordan once said that he failed over and over again, which is why he succeeded.
So if expected top teams and players are under-performing, there is no need for fans to start worrying yet. So much can happen between now and next April when the NBA playoffs begin.
But in the meantime, here are 10 of the biggest misconceptions I have often heard over the past few weeks as the preseason has gotten underway.
1. The LA Lakers Preseason Record and Injuries Indicate an Underachieving Season
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There is panic among some Lakers fans. Kobe Bryant recently said that his surgically repaired knee is at about 60 percent right now.
In the first two preseason games, Kobe Bryant has shot 2-18 for an astonishing 11 percent field goal percentage.
Meanwhile, Andrew Bynum is also recovering from his knee surgery and has indicated that he might be out until mid-December. Between the injuries and new players, Phil Jackson has called preseason a bust for the Lakers.
Starting the preseason with two straight losses has only exacerbated the situation.
However, there is a reason why most NBA GMs have proclaimed Bryant to be the best shooting guard in the league this season. They knew of Kobe’s surgery and yet trust that he can recover fully and return to dominant form.
Jerry Buss thinks that the roster this year may be the best team in his 30 years of ownership. The team’s deep roster should help the Lakers win games during the regular season.
Preseason records often mean little in the end. Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich have both had teams that have won the championship with poor preseason records.
Unlike many other teams that are out to prove themselves in these meaningless games, the Lakers under Jackson know that the long season is all about the team pacing itself to peak by the time the playoffs begin.
In short, it is premature to start making claims that the Lakers will not be able to three-peat based on the recent events during the preseason.
2. LeBron James Will Average a Triple-Double
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Numerous NBA analysts have speculated that Lebron James will adjust his play and average a triple- double this season. They have suggested that he could become a player in the mold of Magic Johnson, except being a bit more athletic.
While this is a possible scenario, I consider it implausible that James will average a triple-double. As a point forward, he should still be able to showcase his skills as a dribble penetrator and playmaker.
However, unlike when James was in Cleveland where he had the ball in his hands most of the game, James will have to share ball-handling duties with Dwyane Wade, Mario Chalmers, and Carlos Arroyo.
Speaking of Wade, he is another player who needs the ball in his hands to be most effective. It will be interesting to see how James and Wade work together. However, if Wade is going to be his normal dominant self, then James will have fewer opportunities to make plays himself. This will make it harder for James to average at least 10 APG.
While there is little doubt that James will average over 10 PPG during the season, it is unlikely that he will also average 10 RPG.
First, Chris Bosh said he will redefine his role and wants to be one of the top rebounders in the game. With Bosh grabbing rebounds, it will be tougher for James to consistently grab at least 10 rebounds per game.
Additionally, averaging 10 RPG is quite tough for a perimeter player to do. For instance, say James has a mediocre game in the rebounding department—perhaps pulling down five rebounds one game. That means that the next game Lebron will have to snatch 15 rebounds in order to keep his average at 10.
To throw in one more reason why averaging a triple-double is unlikely, the Miami Heat is bound to have an excellent season and is going to blow out many opponents. Barring a major injury to Bosh or Wade, all three superstars should see their minutes reduced in blowout games.
In order for James to average a triple-double, he will probably have to average close to 40 minutes per game to have enough time to rack up all of the stats.
If the team plays well and Erik Spoelstra is smart, then he won’t let Lebron James play that many minutes throughout the season.
3. The Oklahoma City Thunder Will Be the Second Seed in the Western Conference
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It seems that the consensus these days is that the Oklahoma City Thunder will likely secure a second seed in the Western Conference, behind the top-seeded LA Lakers.
While this is a possible scenario, there are too many factors in play to make such a bold statement. There are just too many good teams in the Western Conference to make a definitive prediction in this matter.
For instance, the Dallas Mavericks have one of the deepest rosters in the league and should be improved from last season. Like Dallas, the Denver Nuggets also have a strong roster and could be one of the top teams.
The San Antonio Spurs have added Tiago Splitter to the team’s frontcourt, who should be a force in the league as a rookie. Also, DeJuan Blair should be better in his sophomore season.
The Houston Rockets have a strong team, and having Yao Ming play even limited minutes can help propel the team to the top.
The Utah Jazz is sure to be a force to reckon with, as the team made several additions during the offseason with the likes of Al Jefferson and defensive specialist Raja Bell.
And let’s not forget about the Portland Trail Blazers, who just might be the dark horse contender in the league. Despite all of the injuries last year, the team still managed 50 wins. Should the roster stay relatively healthy this year (especially Greg Oden), Portland is clearly capable of earning 60 wins.
While I believe the Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be a great team this year, it is impossible to say that the team is a clear favorite to get the second seed in its conference.
4. Michael Beasley Will Be an All-Star This Year
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After having an impressive outing against the LA Lakers in London, many people have iterated that Michael Beasley is bound to become an all-star this year.
Against the Lakers, he certainly had a great game, scoring 21 points in 18 minutes and shooting 8-10 from the field.
But the next game against the Knicks exemplified the story of Beasley’s game at this stage of his career. During that game, he only scored 13 points and shot 4-12. In order for Beasley to become an all-star, he will have to outgrow the inconsistency that he has shown over his first few years in the league.
Yet, Beasley also has other issues to get around. First, there are at least nine players in the conference who are nearly sure bets to be on the all-star roster: Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Tim Duncan, Carmelo Anthony (if he stays with Denver), Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Brandon Roy, and Kevin Durant.
In addition, many other players may put themselves in a strong position to make the team, including Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis, Steve Nash, Tony Parker, Al Jefferson, Rudy Gay, OJ Mayo, and Zach Randolph.
One thing that will be working against Beasley is his team’s record. While the Minnesota Timberwolves are likely to be improved from the 15 wins it had last year, it would be far-fetched to expect the team to earn more than 30 to 35 wins this season.
With this record in mind, Beasley will have to put up an amazing stat line in order to have a chance of making the all-star team. Given that this is probably unlikely, his chances for becoming an all-star this year are slim.
5. The Eastern Conference Will Be the Strongest NBA Conference in 2010-2011
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During the NBA offseason, star players Carlos Boozer and Amare Stoudemire switched conferences to play for teams in the East.
As a result, many analysts have remarked about an apparent shift of power from the Western Conference to the Eastern Conference.
For nearly a decade, the Western Conference has been the stronger of the two NBA conferences. In the 12 years since 1999, only three Eastern Conference teams have won an NBA title (Detroit, Miami, and Boston).
In recent years, Western Conference teams have needed roughly 50 wins in order to qualify for the playoffs. By contrast, some teams in the Eastern Conference that have made the playoffs would have been among the worst teams in the West.
While it is intriguing to speculate about a shift in the balance of power, this idea may be far-fetched. In the Eastern Conference, there are likely to be only six strong teams: Miami, Boston, Chicago, Milwaukee, Orlando, and Atlanta.
Meanwhile, as I have discussed earlier, the Western Conference will once again have many great teams, including Oklahoma City, Utah, Portland, San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, Denver, and the LA Lakers.
With this in mind, the idea that the Eastern Conference is now tougher than the Western Conference is preposterous.
6. The Boston Celtics Are Too Old To Win Another Championship
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In the aftermath of the hype surrounding the Miami Heat this summer, the Boston Celtics—just the team that won the Eastern Conference—are one of the leading teams from last year that have seemingly been forgotten about.
Many skeptics have written off the Celtics saying the team is too old and past its prime.
Consider the ages of some of the team’s core players: Ray Allen is 35, Kevin Garnett is 34, Paul Pierce is 32, and Shaquille O’Neal, at 38, is the oldest player in the league.
However, with Rajon Rondo added to the mix, Boston may be able to put five future Hall of Famers on the floor at the same time. The team’s veterans know how to play smart basketball, and the younger players can add a much-needed infusion of energy and athleticism for the Celtics.
Although the team will have to be careful in preventing injuries so it can have another strong playoff run, the Boston Celtics have one of the best coaches in Doc Rivers. With Rivers at the helm, he should be able to manage the team well and get the players to peak near the end of the season.
In short, it would be wise not to count out the Boston Celtics as a serious contender for the NBA title this season.
7. The Miami Heat Will Be Much More Dominant Once Dwyane Wade Returns
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The Miami Heat has thus far been successful during this offseason. The team has won two out of three games, including the two games where most of the team’s core players have played significant minutes.
In the team’s first game, Dwyane Wade went down with a right hamstring injury. While the strain is not serious and Wade is expected back in action within a few weeks, some people are quick to assume that the Heat’s dominance will increase when this happens.
While this may happen, it is not a guarantee. Both Wade and Lebron James required the ball in their hands to be most dominant.
They have had some success playing together on all-star teams and the US national team. However, that does not mean that they will be able to play well enough together to win a championship this year.
There still could be a clash of egos or chemistry problems. There could be disputes over who should take the last shot in a close game. Everything seems fine now, but when adversity occurs, it will be interesting to see if the team can have successful results.
The most talented team doesn’t always win. We have seen this countless times in the NBA and in international play. Hence, adding Wade to the mix is no guarantee for a drastic improvement in the team’s playing ability.
8. The Los Angeles Clippers Will Overachieve This Season
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The Los Angeles Clippers on paper have one of the deepest rosters in the league. The team’s players include Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, and Chris Kaman.
The team won 29 games last year, but Blake Griffin sat out the entire season after being injured. Many analysts are picking John Wall to be rookie of the year, but they should not be quick to forget about Blake Griffin.
While John Wall should have an excellent NBA career, Blake Griffin is arguably a better all-around player who could easily become the franchise player the Clippers hope for.
If he can have the season that people anticipated a year ago and the rest of the roster can stay healthy, then the Clippers should be much improved and make a decent run for the playoffs in the deep Western Conference. In this scenario, one should not be surprised if the team can win between 40 to 45 wins.
However, the team still has one of the worst owners in sports in Donald Sterling. In addition, one must consider the curse of the Clippers, according to ESPN's Bill Simmons.
Throughout the history of the franchise, the top draft picks and players always seem to have their careers hampered by injuries. One thing tends to lead to another and before you know it, the Clippers seem to have another typical season.
Unfortunately, given the karma and team management, the Clippers are sure to find a way to disappoint fans yet again.
9. Given Carlos Boozer’s Injury, the Chicago Bulls Won’t Be an Elite Team
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Recently Carlos Boozer sustained an injury to his right pinky that will sideline him for the next two months.
While Boozer was a huge signing for the Bulls during the offseason whose play will be necessary if the team is to make a strong playoff run, Bulls fans should be encouraged by the silver lining of the situation.
In addition to Boozer, the Bulls also signed Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, C.J. Watson, and Kurt Thomas this summer. The talented roster also includes star players Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, and Taj Gibson.
The team is clearly one of the deepest in the league. This will be critical to achieving success while Boozer is out. In the meantime, Taj Gibson and Kurt Thomas should be able to fill in well for the injured Boozer, with Gibson getting some beneficial experience as a young player.
Once Carlos Boozer returns, the Chicago Bulls should be able to match up well with any team in the league. In short, the Chicago Bulls should still be one of the top teams in the league and a force to be reckoned with.
10. The Orlando Magic Won’t Be As Good As the Miami Heat
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While Vegas casinos were quick to label the Miami Heat as the favorite to win the NBA championship, the Orlando Magic is another team that was forgotten about.
Last year the Magic had the second-best record in the league. Earlier this summer Dwight Howard worked out with NBA legend Hakeem Olajuwon.
If Howard can display a new and improved offensive repertoire this season, he will be even more of a force down low. This would force opposing teams to double-team Howard more often, leaving the Magic’s premier perimeter shooters wide open more often.
Compared to the Miami Heat, the Orlando Magic is still a deeper team with a better supporting bench. With all the attention that the media has given to the Heat, the Magic will be fired up all season to prove that the Miami Heat is just Florida’s second best team.
In 2002, the Los Angeles Lakers were top heavy with talent, as the roster included Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant. Yet, the Sacramento Kings had a deeper roster and secured the best record in the league.
There is little doubt that both Miami and Orlando will have great seasons. But writing off the Orlando Magic is one of the top misconceptions of this preseason.
