LA Clippers Fantasy Basketball Forecast
The Los Angeles Clippers probably won't win the NBA Championship this season. However, there are Clipper players who can definitely help you win your fantasy basketball league.
Though no Clipper merits superstar status, in real life or in fantasy, LA has plenty of talent worthy of key roster spots. Remember, fantasy sports are all about value. If you can get 2nd round production in the 3rd round, and so on and so forth, then you're set up nicely for a successful year.
Will I specifically aim to draft any Clippers this season? No.
But if they are available in the right place at the right time, I want to be ready.
So here's the definitive 2010-11 fantasy guide to the Los Angeles Clippers.
(Note: All predictions based on a standard 10-team league format. PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, Util, Util, 3 Bench.)
Chris Kaman
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Let me preface my analysis by mentioning that I hate Chris Kaman for the Clippers. I've discussed my sentiments in previous articles and will discuss it more in future pieces, but suffice it to say that I think Los Angeles cannot have a great season with Kaman as their offensive focal point. That being said, this article is about fantasy, not reality, where wins matter much less than numbers. As far as fantasy goes, Kaman's actually pretty good.
Last year, Kaman showed he could put up solid numbers on a terrible team, posting 18.5 points and 9.2 rebounds per game while shooting 75% from the free throw line. However, he wasn't an elite center due to his rather pedestrian field goal percentage (49%), blocks (1.2), assists (1.6), and steals (0.5), as well as his propensity to turn the ball over (2.9).
This year, though, I expect to see an improved Kaman across the board. Kaman's Usage Rate, which was highest in the league among centers last season, should decline with the addition of Blake Griffin and the improvement of Eric Gordon, but his efficiency should conversely spike. He will not have to force as many shots, so his field goal percentage should jump over 50%. Furthermore, the upgrades on his team will boost his assists and decrease his turnovers. It also doesn't hurt that he finally showed the ability to stay healthy for an entire season.
All in all, Kaman is a dependable second center.
2010-2011 Prediction: 18.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.6 blocks, 0.6 steals, 2.1 turnovers, 51% FG, 76% FT.
Where to draft Kaman: 8th round. Center #14.
Insider's Note: I've seen Kaman ranked by others significantly lower than he should be, so you could potentially wait until the 10th round or later to snatch him.
Eric Gordon
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This past summer, Eric Gordon got some valuable experience on Team USA at the FIBA World Championships in Istanbul. He was a key sub off the bench, which should give him even more confidence heading into the season, and the Clippers are preparing to give him a more expanded role.
Despite his ability to score the basketball in so many ways, Gordon needs to become a little more well-rounded in order to be considered a fantasy stud. He is yet to average more than 3.0 rebounds or assists, and his shooting percentages (45% FG, 74% FT) could be a little higher.
This year I expect him to take another step towards being a dominant scorer, but I don't know if he'll start stuffing the stat sheet quite yet.
2010-2011 Prediction: 19.0 points, 3.2 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 0.3 blocks, 2.2 three-pointers, 2.5 turnovers, 46% FG, 78% FT.
Where to draft Gordon: 8th round. SG #17.
Baron Davis
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Baron Davis' first two years in Clipperland have been disappointments. For various reasons - injuries, coaching, focus, desire, teammates - he hasn't been the explosive offensive player, fiery leader, or transformational figure that he was supposed to be.
In fantasy-speak, his numbers just haven't been what they once were. Most notably, his scoring has taken a dive, from 21.8 ppg his last year with the Warriors to 15.3 ppg last season.
Is this the year for Baron to break out in Los Angeles? I doubt it.
He's 31, overweight, and has knee and calf issues. That's supposed to be the scouting report for a team's equipment manager, not its starting point guard.
Yet, when Davis plays he manages to stay pretty productive. In '09-10, he did shoot a career best from the charity stripe (82%) and dish out 8.0 dimes per game, and he still gets his fair share of boards and steals.
Personally, I won't be drafting Davis this year; I think he's far too unreliable. But you can feel free to take a flyer on him if you want.
2010-2011 Prediction: 14.5 points, 7.7 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 0.5 blocks, 1.0 three-pointers, 2.5 turnovers, 41% FG, 77% FT.
Where to draft Davis: 9th round. Point Guard #20.
Blake Griffin
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Blake Griffin's immediate fantasy impact is difficult to forecast, especially considering all the questions surrounding him. We know he has tremendous ability - he put up 18 and 13 in the Clippers preseason game Thursday night - but exactly how will it translate?
Moreover, will he be able to stay healthy throughout the whole season?
The most encouraging aspect of Griffin's game is his exceptional motor. He hustles on every play, fights for every board, and attacks the rim with abandon. He doesn't need plays designed for him to put the ball in the bucket, as he will score in transition, off put-backs, and with decisive cuts. He should be a solid contributor in points, rebounds, and FG%. It also wouldn't surprise me if he averaged more than a block and steal per game, though I wouldn't necessarily bet on him doing either.
On the negative side, he is likely to be a zero in the 3-pointer and assist categories, as well as a detriment in FT% and turnovers.
I definitely like Griffin's upside and am looking to hopefully grab him towards the end of the draft.
2010-2011 Prediction: 14.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks, 2.1 turnovers, 54% FG, 61% FT
Where to draft Griffin: 11th round. PF #26
Al-Farouq Aminu
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Rookie Forward Aminu is a potential end-of-the-draft sleeper pick, especially in deeper leagues. He did a little bit of everything during his sophomore year at Wake Forest, though he always showed more raw talent than on-court effectiveness. What I love is that he averaged 1.4 blocks and 1.4 steals in addition to a double-double in points and rebounds.
In 27 preseason minutes Thursday night, he chipped in 17 points and 8 rebounds, all while flashing an improved jumper (2-3 from downtown).
If he separates himself from the pack of Clipper swingmen that includes Ryan Gomes and Rasual Butler, then perhaps he could be a useful fantasy player.
Likelihood of that happening: decidedly slim.
DeAndre Jordan
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Jordan should not be drafted in any league. However, he is a name that you should know.
If Kaman were to be traded - say, for example, to the Denver Nuggets in exchange for Carmelo - Jordan would assume the bulk of his minutes. In that event, he would immediately be worthy of attention. He had several impressive outings at the end of last season.
Ryan Gomes/Rasual Butler
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Right now these two distinctly average swingmen are duking it out for the starting small forward gig, though at the moment it looks like Gomes has the inside track.
Neither is worth a roster spot unless your league is very, very deep.
Eric Bledsoe/Randy Foye
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Should injury or coach's wrath befall Baron Davis, one of these two would be handed the reigns to the Clippers.
Bledsoe, a jitterbug rookie from Kentucky, was overshadowed by John Wall in college, but he has the ability to get to the rim, shoot the ball, pass the rock, and hound other point men defensively. The main concern is whether he can make sound decisions on the court.
Though it's only Foye's fifth year in the league, he's already on his third team and has been stuck with that journeyman label. He's a combo guard who can do a bit of everything, but he has not excelled in the pros.
I believe Bledsoe would be more likely to take advantage of Davis' absence and would definitely deserve a waiver wire look.
If Davis stays on the court, then these two should stay in the fantasy free agent pool.
