New Jersey Nets: A Surprise Playoff Team in the East Without Carmelo Anthony

The good news about the 2010-11 season for the New Jersey Nets: It couldn’t get worse.

Off the court, they made headlines with the introduction of enigmatic new owner Mikhail Prokhorov, the role of part-time owner Jay-Z in the recruitment of free agents, and their repeated efforts to trade for Carmelo Anthony. But much more quietly, a dramatic restructuring of their roster gives them a lot of room for optimism heading into this season.

Only three players with significant roles remain from their 12-win debacle last season: Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, and Terrance Williams.

Offensively, they are poised for a dramatic improvement, which, to be fair, should be pretty easy considering they were the lowest-ranked offense in the league last season.

Spacing the floor with three-point shooters has become an increasingly popular tactic in the NBA. No team illustrates this more than the Orlando Magic, whose preferred offensive strategy is to surround Dwight Howard with four three-point shooters. 

This offseason, the Nets bought into this philosophy in a big way. Every single player they brought in has a history of knocking down threes—Troy Murphy (39.4% for his career), Travis Outlaw (36.3 percent), Jordan Farmar (35.9 percent), Anthony Morrow (a mind-boggling 46 percent), and even Texas rookie Damion James (38.3 percent from the college line last year).

Surrounding Lopez with shooters should dramatically improve his game. With Murphy’s defender all the way at the three-point line, double-teams will be considerably more difficult, not to mention more dangerous.

Indeed, the 22-year-old center is the biggest reason for optimism on the Nets roster. One of the only things rarer than a low-post scorer in today’s league is a seven-footer capable of maintaining defensive position in the post. Lopez should have a decided advantage in his individual matchup against 90 percent of the NBA.

Spreading the floor will not only ease the burden on Lopez, but it will also open up driving lanes to the basket for the Nets perimeter players.

When similarly surrounded by shooters in Dallas, Devin Harris proved nearly impossible to keep out of the lane. One of the fastest point guards in the NBA, Harris should feast on single coverage.

And with the emergence of Terrance Williams as a “point-forward” type player in the latter half of the season, the burden on distributing the ball should diminish for Harris who can focus on scoring.

With two players with a proven ability to score one-on-one and a bevy of shooters around them, the Nets should be one of the better offensive teams in the NBA.

Defensively, things will be dicier, but that is where the addition of new coach Avery Johnson will pay off. A demanding taskmaster who eventually wore out his welcome in Dallas, he proceeded over a dramatic defensive improvement as coach of the Mavericks.

The year before he arrived in Dallas, the Mavericks were the 26th-ranked team in the league defensively. In his first full year as assistant, then-head coach Don Nelson basically handed the reins of the defense over to Johnson before abruptly resigning towards the end of the season and making Johnson the head coach.

That year, with much of the same personnel as the year before, the Mavs improved to ninth in the league defensively and laid the foundation for an NBA finals run the next season.

At the very least he will demand accountability from his players, something clearly lacking by the end of last season.

Unfortunately, most of the team’s defensive talent is on the perimeter. Probable starters Harris, Williams, and Outlaw all combine above-average size for their positions with effective foot speed.

The Nets biggest concern heading into the season will be their interior defense. Neither Lopez nor Murphy is particularly quick, meaning the Nets will struggle against perimeter-oriented big men, and neither is a very effective shot-blocker, making denying penetration even more important.

And that’s where the biggest mystery surrounding the Nets season comes into play: rookie Derrick Favors.

At only 19 years old, it’s unclear as to what he will bring to the table as a rookie. Measuring at 6'10", 245 lbs., with a 7'4" wingspan and tremendous athleticism, he compares favorably with some of the most athletic big men in the league.

If he can block shots and rebound like he did in college without making too many mental mistakes and just focus on running the floor and finishing at the rim, he can play a vital role. 

With or without Carmelo Anthony, the Nets figure to be an above-average offensive team. And if Favors can win a spot in the rotation, and play up to his athletic ability and draft position, the Nets could struggle to be a slightly below-average defensive team.

After last season, average would be reason for celebration in New Jersey.

Even better, the Chicago Bulls, the No. 8 team in the Eastern Conference last year, snuck into the playoffs at 41-41. Exactly average.

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