2010-11 NBA Predictions: Who Will Take LeBron James' Throne for the Cavaliers?
NBA fans and pundits generally have one of two trains of thought surrounding the Cleveland Cavaliers heading into the 2010-11 season.
The first is, without LeBron James, this current roster of cast-offs, undrafted reserves, and role players will stumble out of the gate and finish with one of the worst records in the league.
The second is, under a new regime led by GM Chris Grant and a style of fast-paced, up-tempo ball directed by coach Byron Scott, there is enough talent and youth on the roster to win anywhere up to 35 or 40 games and compete for a playoff spot in the East.
A far cry from the '05-'10 Cavaliers that advanced to the second-round of the playoffs every season and won 272 games (best of any Eastern Conference team).
Those days are long gone, and if media day last Monday was any indication, the coaches and players on roster are all determined to move forward and not allow former players be a distraction.
But how could it not be?
Ten of the players on this year's squad return from last year. They spent an entire season playing with James (aside from Antawn Jamison, who played half a year) and being considered one of the NBA's elite teams. More than anyone else, they know how important James was to the team and what elements he brought to the table, both on and off the court.
Now they have to deal with questions and criticism every single day. The next time they lose a one- or two-point game because they miss a shot at the buzzer, James' shadow will loom over them.
The next time they get blown out by 20-plus at home, critics will no doubt take the opportunity to lambast the team and remark how none of this ever happened in the LBJ era.
Psychologically, it will take its toll.
"I felt the same pain that the average fan felt," guard Mo Williams said last week, referring to James' decision to leave Cleveland. "To me, to let my emotions go, my voice is going to be heard more than [the fan's] voices will.
"But they're voicing the same frustration. I felt the exact same way."
It's safe to say this is a unique situation in Cleveland. But any attempts to pluck the crown from James' head and anoint it to a player on the current roster are futile.
Almost everyone on the Cavaliers was signed to complement James' skill set. Williams was acquired because he could handle the ball and also knock down open three's, which were plentiful when opposing defenses had multiple eyes following James around the court.
They traded for Jamison because of his ability to space the floor.
Jamario Moon and Jawad Williams were brought on board to be lockdown defenders off the bench.
Anthony Parker was added to bring defensive versatility and three-point shooting to the starting five.
Now all of these players will have their roles redefined. Maybe a few will step up and shine now that they're cast in a different light, but it'll still more than likely take time for players that have been together for years to gel.
As strange as this may sound, the Cavs might be able to mask the scoring that was left behind. James finished with 2,258 points last season, more than twice the total of the next closest Cavalier (Mo Williams with 1,092). No other team had that much discrepancy between their top two scorers.
But while the Cavs were ninth in the league with 102.1 points per game, they were 28th in team field goal attempts (6,391, or 77.9 per game). Under new coach Byron Scott, they'll push the tempo and take shots much quicker in the shot clock than they have in years past.
If they take 410 more shots (five per game) throughout the course of the season, it'd put them at 6,800 shots. Take those extra attempts and the 1,528 that James left behind and it creates nearly 2,000 extra shots. Distribute those shots to the top players in the Cavs rotation (i.e. Hickson, Sessions, Mo, Varejao, Jamison, Jawad Williams, Moon, Parker) and the team's average points per game works out to be around 100.
Admittedly, this is some rough math. It doesn't equate the higher shooting percentages each player had because James was on the floor, nor does it take into account opposing defenses now keying in on guys like Williams, Hickson, and Jamison in half-court sets, making it more difficult to generate offense.
But the basic principle behind it holds true—if you take more shots, you'll score more points. One player won't pick up the 30 points left behind, but collectively six or seven can up their averages by a few points to make up the difference. They might not be the "seven seconds or less" Phoenix Suns, but they still have enough talent to average close to, if not more than, 100 points.
Defensively is where they'll really miss James. Even though offensively they didn't open things up and allow James' versatility to play shooting guard, power forward, or even center, he did roam around on defense, constantly taking the challenge of covering the other team's top scorer.
Derrick Rose torching Mo in the playoffs? Put James on him.
Kobe Bryant going off? Tap James on the shoulder.
Rashard Lewis killing the team with his outside jumper? Paging James.
I wrote last year that he should deserve consideration for Defensive Player of the Year. He finished fourth in the voting, getting the most first-place votes of anyone not named Dwight Howard, and also made first team All-Defense.
The Cavs do have some other solid pieces defensively. Most people view Varejao as a flopper, but he's quietly become one of the best one-on-one post defenders in the league over the last two years.
Moon and Jawad Williams are lengthy, athletic, and can disrupt opposing shooters' rhythm.
Parker isn't too quick and might have trouble keeping up with speedy shooting guards (think Ray Allen in the playoffs last year), but he's strong, physical, and doesn't often get beat off the dribble.
Still, James was the one the team could count on if someone ever was beat. He would fly from weak-side to block shots, jump from baseline to the top of the key to intercept a cross-court pass in the blink of an eye, make everyone's jaw drop with his patented chase-down blocks, and pull down any rebound in his vicinity.
The pressure on each individual defender will be magnified, especially because most of the current nucleus is used to having a 6'9" safety net lurking behind them.
For the first time in eight years, there is a serious lack of star power on the roster. And since no current Cavalier would ever be the go-to guy on a championship team, there's no point in trying to throw one player into that role.
But collectively, they have an opportunity to play the "nobody believed in us!" card. Coach Byron Scott says "I hope they're pissed off" about the lack of respect they've been getting during the offseason. Essentially they're playing with house money—they can show that it was more than James carrying a bunch of scrubs to 60-plus wins. They were a cohesive, organized team.
Replacing him can't be done with one player, nor can it be done in one or two years. But instead of being overly dependent on one man, they can together take the first step towards rebuilding the franchise the right way: centered around 15 players, not one.









