Fantasy Basketball 2010: Do You Take Kevin Durant or Chris Paul at No. 1?
Now that LeBron is on a stacked team in Miami, he is no longer the consensus No. 1 overall pick in most fantasy drafts. With more talent around him, he'll no longer be expected to shoulder the load and do everything for his team. While he'll probably only drop to No. 3 on the ranking list, LeBron is no longer the King.
Chris Paul is no stranger atop the fantasy basketball leader boards. He's had at least two seasons where he was widely considered to be the best asset in fantasy land. However, even with LeBron dropping, Paul is not alone.
Kevin Durant burst onto the fantasy scene in a big way last year. While he was no slouch the year before, he took a major leap forward during the 2009-10 NBA season.
While you wouldn't be wrong taking either of them with the first pick, a lot of it depends on how you want to construct your team and the format of your league.
The Case For Chris Paul
1 of 2
Chris Paul missed nearly half the season last year, so his numbers aren't exactly indicative of his value, even though he still put up elite numbers. It would actually make more sense to take his numbers from the 2008-09 NBA season and base his growth off of that.
The Hornets made several changes during the offseason. Their biggest addition was bringing Trevor Ariza over from Houston. However, in order to obtain the young forward, they had to part ways with Darren Collison.
Losing Darren actually only helps to boost Paul's numbers. The Hornets will continue to lean on Chris as their star playmaker.
With the emergence of Marcus Thornton and the addition of Trevor Ariza, Paul has some great new weapons to dish the ball to. While this should help to boost his assist total, it will alleviate the scoring burden off his shoulders.
While Paul is easily capable of moving into the upper echelon of scorers, his job is to drop dimes and orchestrate the offense—something he does to near perfection.
Offensively, this may be the most talented team Paul has ever played with. After two disappointing seasons, Paul is expected to put all the trade talk behind him and reclaim—for those of you who consider Deron Williams the better PG—the crown of top point guard in the league.
One would also think that he would have a high turnover rate, but his assist-to-turnover ratio is excellent. For such a high usage point guard that nearly dominates the ball on every possession, Paul manages to keep his turnovers to three and under. Something that Kevin Durant could not boast.
The only real weakness in Paul's game is the lack of blocks.
Paul makes a strong case for being taken No. 1 in H2H leagues because of his steals and assists. Those two categories are harder to attain, and in a standard nine-category H2H format, all you need to do is win five categories. If you can take the foundation laid out by Chris Paul and build upon it, you can create a juggernaut in no time.
The same goes for rotisserie leagues. Aside from blocks, Paul will give you a major advantage in nearly every area.
Here's a look at Paul's stats from the last two years, plus my own personal projections for the upcoming season.
Year | FG% | FT% | 3 PT | RBD | AST | TO | STL | BLK | PPG |
'08-'09 | 50.3 | 86.8 | 0.8 | 5.5 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 0.1 | 22.8 |
'09-'10 | 49.3 | 84.7 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 10.7 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 18.7 |
Projected | 50.1 | 87.5 | 1.4 | 5.1 | 11.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 20.9 |
The Case For Kevin Durant
2 of 2
Kevin gained some valuable experience this past summer. During the 2010 FIBA Men's Championship, Durant led the US Men's National Team on a dominating run to first place. He should have no trouble translating his supremacy to the upcoming season as he is sure to warrant serious MVP consideration.
If you're playing in a rotisserie league, then Kevin Durant has an advantage and takes the lead as favorite. He does a little bit of everything, and does it really well. It's hard to argue with the numbers.
However, in H2H, it's not so clear-cut. Points and rebounds are the two easiest categories to come by, and those are where Kevin excels.
Most tend to automatically expect Durant to increase his scoring for the upcoming season. While it's a reasonable assumption to make, there are a lot of other variables at play.
While not set in stone, James Harden is currently listed as the Thunder's starting shooting guard. The expected development of Harden is sure to impact the flow of the Thunder's offense. James had some big games for OKC during last year's playoff matchup against the Lakers, and some of that experience should carry over into the upcoming season.
However, Harden is not the only one. Westbrook and Green should also see a slight bump in their scoring average, if not more.
While Durant is perfectly capable of putting up 30-plus points per game, he may not have to. Since they are running the same offensive system from last year, the tempo and shots should be about the same. However, the distribution will be different.
Field goal and free throw percentages tend to be ignored when drafting a team. A lot of people go with the best available strategy. However, specifically building around Durant with players efficient in both shooting categories is a start to constructing a successful team.
If Durant's scoring average decreases, the plus side should be his efficiency. With the improving offensive pieces around him, he may even break the 50 percent barrier for field goal percentage.
Durant averaged 10.2 trips to the charity stripe last year. Shooting at an absurd 90 percent, Durant can help you single-handedly dominate that category.
The emergence of Serge Ibaka should directly affect Durant's rebounding numbers. It could also adversely affect his blocks too. The Thunder's frontcourt will need to be sorted out in order to get a good grasp of how Kevin's numbers will be impacted.
Here's a look at Durant's stats from the last two years, plus my own personal projections for the upcoming season.
Year | FG% | FT% | 3 PT | RBD | AST | TO | STL | BLK | PPG |
'08-'09 | 47.6 | 86.3 | 1.3 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 25.3 |
'09-'10 | 47.6 | 90.0 | 1.6 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 30.2 |
Projected | 48.2 | 89.2 | 1.8 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 29.7 |
