2010-2011 NBA Southwest Division Preview: Rockets, Mavs, Spurs Battle For Texas
I recently wrote an article in which I claimed that the Dallas Mavericks had a better shot at challenging the Los Angeles Lakers than any other Western Conference team. I stand behind that claim, but I also acknowledge the fact that there are some good teams out west that could prove me wrong.
Two such teams are not only in Dallas's division, they're in the same state. The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs will both be very competitive this season. The intrastate rivalry in Texas is a three-team affair that is sure to entertain all season long.
I've decided to rank these three teams at each position. I'll award three points for first place at a position, two points for second, and one point for third. Whichever team adds up the most points wins (without having played a single real game). Isn't speculation fun?
Point Guard
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Jason Kidd - The 37-year-old Kidd has certainly slowed down since rejoining the Mavericks, but aging has also had its positive effects on him. He may not be able to blow by defenders the way he used to. He may not be able to stay in front of opposing point guards on defense anymore. However, his leadership skills and veteran savvy have increased significantly.
Kidd still sees the court well. He can almost always find the open man when he has the ball and he knows when to pull the trigger on a pass. He was fifth in the league last year in assists per game.
Another skill that Kidd has developed is his outside shot. He is a career 35 percent shooter from three-point range but last year he hit 43 percent of such attempts.
His counterparts in Houston and San Antonio are younger and quicker, but Kidd is a fierce competitor and has a great deal of experience.
Aaron Brooks - Houston's point guard is the reigning Most Improved Player award winner. He averaged 19.6 points and 5.3 assists per game, while shooting 40 percent from three-point range last season. More importantly, he showed that he can be a leader and take over games for the Rockets when he needs to.
He isn't a great distributor, but five assists a game is solid and he can put up points in a hurry on his own. He can get to the rim with his great quickness or pull up for a jump shot over just about any opposing point guard in a heart beat.
The Rockets need to resolve his contract issues as soon as possible. He is an integral component of this team.
Tony Parker - This former NBA Finals MVP saw his production drop off considerably last season due to injuries and the emergence of George Hill. Hill looks like he could be a longer version of Parker with a more reliable jump shot. There will be some competition between these two all season long.
If I were to judge these three based purely on skill, my first instinct would be to declare Parker the winner. However, there have been rumblings (which I think are true) that Parker wants out of San Antonio.
Even if he does stay, he might not even start. Gregg Popovich is notorious for doing strange things with his starting lineups and I wouldn't be surprised to see Hill get the nod for many games.
Verdict
First - Aaron Brooks
Second - Tony Parker
Third - Jason Kidd
Brooks is as quick or quicker than Parker, he shoots better than Kidd, and he's still improving. Don't be surprised if his points and assists go up this year.
Shooting Guard
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Caron Butler - His natural position is small forward, but he has the versatility to play shooting guard, and even a little bit of power forward every now and then. Since he was traded to Dallas last season he's spent most of his time at shooting guard. He enjoys a size advantage against almost every other starting shooting guard in the league.
Butler's numbers were down last year for a couple of reasons. In Washington, he was playing for a team in turmoil, where it was difficult for anyone to get into a rhythm. Once he was traded to Dallas, he had just 27 games to adjust to his new team and system.
He showed flashes of what he was capable of with Dallas, but for the most part he struggled. After an entire offseason and training camp with this squad he should be much more effective. Plus, he's in a contract year which is a major source of motivation in the NBA.
I expect him to be back to his old 20 point per game form and play well as Dallas's second option behind Dirk Nowitzki.
Kevin Martin - Even with that funky delivery, this guy consistently piles up points next to his name. He has averaged at least 20 points per game in each of the last four seasons. He did so this past season while playing with two shoot-first point guards in Tyreke Evans and Aaron Brooks.
For his career, he shoots 45 percent from the field, 38 percent from three-point range and 86 percent from the free throw line. These are all high marks that contribute to his good points per shot ratio. He averages 1.5 points for every field goal attempt.
He doesn't do a whole lot outside of score, but he doesn't really need to in Houston. He is surrounded by great players at every position who help to overshadow his deficiencies.
Manu Ginobili - He may not start, but he is definitely San Antonio's premier shooting guard. I think Gregg Popovich prides himself on trotting out strange starting lineups that contain players who won't even sniff the court in the fourth quarter. Why does he do it? Some people pretend to know, but I think it's time to face facts. This guy is just outsmarting himself at this point.
Back to the topic at hand; Ginobili has been a game changer many times in his career. He's only averaged more than 30 minutes a game for an entire season once in his career, but he makes the most of his minutes. When he enters the game in crucial situations, the Spurs are significantly more dangerous.
He is getting up in age now, and his body is starting to break down. He's not as explosive as he used to be and I don't expect him to play more than 60 games this year. However, he can still break loose on any given night (assuming he's not in street clothes).
Verdict -
First - Caron Butler
Second - Kevin Martin
Third - Manu Ginobili
Butler is hands down the most versatile of this bunch. He rebounds and defends better. He can post up a lot of smaller guards.
Small Forward
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Shawn Marion - He's far removed from the 20 and 10 seasons he produced in Phoenix, but Marion is still capable of contributing in a variety of ways.
He averaged 12 points and 6.4 rebounds per game while shooting 58% from the field. He collected most of his points by running the floor and crashing the offensive glass. He's still a great finisher in transition, and was third on the team in offensive rebounds behind centers Brendan Haywood and Erick Dampier.
He is also the Mavericks best on-ball defender. Over the last few seasons he has improved his defense and now gets the most difficult assignments for Dallas.
He is very versatile, athletic, and can guard positions two through four.
Shane Battier - What he brings more than anything, is intangibles. There isn't a wing in the league that is more willing to take charges, set good picks, and chase the opposing team's best player for 40 minutes.
Battier has never put up huge offensive numbers, but he connects on open looks. He has attempted 3.3 three-point shots per game and shoots 39 percent from that range for his career.
Statistically, he is the ultimate role player, but it is his intangibles and leadership skills that make him nearly indispensable for Houston.
Richard Jefferson - During his time in New Jersey, he was one of the most productive players in the league. He could score inside and out, rebound, and pass. He remained effective after being moved to Milwaukee. However, last year in San Antonio his production dropped off dramatically.
Jefferson's numbers went across the board. He looked frustrated for long stretches of the year and even fell out of the Spurs starting lineup for a while (not that stunning on a Gregg Popovich team).
He will likely have to accept the same role he was in last year for as long as he's in San Antonio. The Spurs would like to recapture a lot of what they had with Bruce Bowen. Jefferson needs to improve his defense and three-point percentage to be very effective in this role.
Verdict -
First - Shawn Marion
Second - Richard Jefferson
Third - Shane Battier
Marion put up better numbers than Battier and Jefferson last year, but this selection is about more than that. He provides so many things to the Mavericks that aren't measured in conventional box scores.
Power Forward
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Dirk Nowitzki - I don't have to say much about Dirk Nowitzki. He has averaged over 21 points per game for the last ten years. He is a nine time all-star, ten time all-NBA, and a former MVP. He led the league in player efficiency in back to back seasons just three years ago. His career shooting percentages are 47 percent from the field, 38 percent from three-point range and 88 percent from the free throw line.
He is the best European player in NBA history and does not appear to be slowing down at all. His rebounding numbers were down a bit last year, but that was due to the Mavericks surrounding him with better rebounders like Brendan Haywood, Shawn Marion and Jason Kidd.
Luis Scola - He is one of the most underrated big men in the NBA. He stepped up in a big way last season in the absence of Yao Ming. For the year, he averaged 16.2 points and 8.6 rebounds per game.
Scola fits in very well in Houston. The Rockets are loaded with guys who play physically on both ends of the court, and compete hard for every second they're in the game.
He also has an old school repertoire of post moves that has made a number of post defenders look foolish.
Antonio McDyess - Now in his mid to late thirties, he hasn't averaged double figures in scoring since 2002. He had some fantastic years in Denver during the late 90s, but age and injuries derailed his career just as he was becoming a dominant player.
At this point, he can provide little more than solid defense and a consistent 17 foot jump shot.
Verdict -
First - Dirk Nowitzki
Second - Luis Scola
Third - Antonio McDyess
You may think I'm cheating by placing McDyess here instead of Tim Duncan, but this is how the two are currently listed: Duncan at center and McDyess at power forward. That being said, Nowitzki is clearly the best of these three.
Center
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Brendan Haywood - It is very difficult to understand why Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle ever played Erick Dampier after acquiring this guy.
Dallas was clearly a better team when he was on the floor. His length helps him alter the shots of incoming opponents trying to get to the rim. It also helps him to rebound. He led the team in offensive rebounding last year.
He also finishes well around the rim.
What might be his biggest contribution is the relief he provides Dirk Nowitzki. With Haywood (and now Tyson Chandler) on the roster, Dirk can spend all his time at his natural power forward position.
Yao Ming -He is one of the most injury prone stars in the NBA, and I'll go out on a not so shaky limb to guarantee he won't play a full season this year, but when he's in he's extremely effective.
The Rockets have announced that he'll play no more than 24 minutes per game this season. His career production per 24 minutes of play is very good: 14 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game.
That's all well and good, but at this point we have no idea what Yao is capable of providing now. He missed all of last season with injuries, and like I said before, he'll miss plenty more games this year. Even still, I expect him to be a game changer when he's on the floor for the Rockets.
Tim Duncan - As was the case with Nowitzki, I don't need to say much about Duncan. He is a model of consistency, averaging 21.1 points and 11.6 rebounds per game. He's a 12 time all-star, 13 time all-NBA and 13 time all-defensive team selection. He's won two regular season MVP awards, three finals MVPs and most importantly, he's a four time champion.
Verdict -
First - Brendan Haywood... Just joking, Tim Duncan
Second - Yao Ming
Third - Brendan Haywood
If Duncan was listed as a power forward, he would've won that category for this article. As it stands, he's head and shoulders above the competition here.
Sixth Man
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Jason Terry - He has already proven himself in this role. He's been doing this for the last three years, and was the 2008-2009 Sixth Man of the Year award winner.
Even with an influx of talented, young guards in Dallas, Terry will still have a bigger impact on games than any other bench player on the roster.
During his time as a sixth man, Terry has averaged over 17 points per game on 46 percent shooting from the field and 37 percent from three-point range.
Chase Budinger - It's hard to say who the Rockets sixth man will be this year. It could be Courtney Lee, Kyle Lowry, Jordan Hill, Chuck Hayes or maybe someone else.
I chose Budinger because of his athleticism, shooting ability, and the players in front of him doesn't provide a ton of offense.
He will improve upon his solid rookie year and may even start a few games.
George Hill - He may not be a sixth man for long. He started 43 games last year, including a handful when Parker was healthy
He made a very big leap from his rookie year to his second season and looks to be San Antonio's point guard of the future. He is extremely long for a point guard, which helps him in getting to the rim and on defense.
As of right now, he should be coming off the bench and he'll be a great spark for the Spurs in that role.
Verdict -
First - Jason Terry
Second - George Hill
Third - Chase Budinger
Hill may be better than Terry in a year or two. Right now, he's barely behind.
Bench
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Dallas - Dallas has a lot of good players on the bench, but not much size. Players likely to effect some games are: Rodrigue Beaubois, Jose Barea and Tyson Chandler.
Combine that with sixth man Jason Terry and three of Dallas's four best bench players are 6'2'' and under. It isn't crucial that they find a wing player that can step up off the bench right now because of the versatility of Caron Butler and Shawn Marion. However, a back up power forward would be nice.
Houston - This team's bench is stacked. They're solid at all five positions. Kyle Lowry, Courtney Lee, Jordan Hill, Chuck Hayes, and Brad Miller will all contribute this year.
The front office in Houston has surrounded their superstar Yao Ming with fierce competitors.
San Antonio - The Spurs bench is also solid and they seem to have guys step up out of nowhere every year. Expect Bobby Simmons to be that guy this year.
They also have some talented young bigs in Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair.
On a Gregg Popovich squad, everyone needs to be ready because he goes pretty deep into his bench and plays around with a lot of different rotations.
Verdict -
First - Houston
Second - San Antonio
Third - Dallas
Houston's bench may be one of the deepest and most dependable in the NBA.
Final Tally
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Dallas - 15 (12 points for four first-place finishes, three points for three third-place finishes)
Houston - 14 (six points for two first-place finishes, six points for three second-place finishes, two points for two third-place finishes)
San Antonio - 13 (three points for one first-place finish, eight points for four second-place finishes, two points for two third-place finishes)
All three of these Texas teams are going to be solid this year and I expect each to win at least 50 games. They should all make the playoffs.
However, I believe the Mavericks are the best team of the bunch.
I can't wait for it all to play out.
