Nowitzki's Dallas Mavericks: The Only Western Team That Can Take On the Lakers
Over four years have passed since the Dallas Mavericks made it to the NBA Finals in 2006. Many now feel that year was the best shot Dirk Nowitzki ever had—or ever will have—at a title.
The Mavs were up two games to zero when the series and momentum shifted to Miami. The Heat went on to win the next four games and the championship.
It makes sense to question the legitimacy of that title when you consider that Dwyane Wade averaged 16.2 free throw attempts per game for the series. The officials seemed willing to hand the series to Wade at the free throw line.
Nevertheless, the Mavs were two wins away from a title and they haven't been anywhere near that close ever since.
The following season, Nowitzki won the NBA's Most Valuable Player Award and Dallas went a league-best 67-15. It looked as though no team would be able to stop the Mavs on their quest for redemption.
Then came along the Golden State Warriors. Led by Baron Davis and former Dallas head coach Don Nelson, the Warriors became the first eighth seeded team to beat the top seed in a seven game series.
Dallas has yet to fully recover from the painful conclusions of their 2006 and 2007 playoff runs. With several players left over from the '06 title run, they lost in the first round of the playoffs in two out of three years following '07.
All that being said, every new season brings new hope.
The Mavericks are a very deep team this year, and the only one in the west that may be able to prevent the Lakers from winning their fourth straight conference title. Here's how...
Dirk Nowitzki—His spotlight has faded somewhat over the years since his MVP campaign, but Nowitzki is still one of the league's top power forwards. He has averaged over 21 points per game in each of the last 10 years and he does not seem to be slowing down with age. Last year, he scored 25 per game while shooting 42 percent from three-point range and 48 percent overall.
The Lakers do not have anyone on the roster that can stop him. The first, and most obvious defender they throw at him is Pau Gasol. Dirk is 20-9 against Pau, but this doesn't tell us much, since 22 of those matchups happened while Pau was still with Memphis.
What is relevant though, is that Dirk scored five more points per game, and grabbed one and a half more rebounds per game than Pau in those 29 games.
Los Angeles will occasionally throw some other defenders at Dirk. Theo Ratliff is no longer mobile enough to defend Dirk's fadeaway, and Ron Artest is simply too short. He can be as physical as he wants with Nowitzki but he can't get up high enough to contest the release.
Nowitzki is still one of the toughest matchups in the league, especially in the clutch.
"Clutch" stats are collected during the last five minutes of a game in which either team leads by five points or less. Then, all the "clutch" minutes a player accumulates are added up and divided by the time of a full game to show a player's production per 48 minutes of "clutch" time.
LeBron James, Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki were one, two and three in the league in "clutch" scoring last season. Take a look at how much better Dirk was than Kobe and LeBron in some other areas during "clutch time."
| Min | fg | 3p | ft | Points | Reb | Ast | t/o | |
| Lebron James | 151 | 49% | 34% | 80% | 66.1 | 15.9 | 8.3 | 4.1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 132 | 44% | 36% | 82% | 51.2 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 171 | 45% | 67% | 98% | 47.2 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.5 |
One thing this table shows, is how dominant LeBron is in these situations. However, it also shows that Dirk is more productive than Kobe in the last five minutes of games, when the difference on the scoreboard is five points or less.
Dirk Nowitzki, the franchise player and leader of the Mavericks, is the biggest reason this team can compete with the Lakers.
Size - Since acquiring Pau Gasol in 2008, the Lakers have enjoyed a considerable advantage down low against almost all their opponents. They are especially dangerous when Andrew Bynum is healthy. No other team in the league can start two seven footers with the kind of skills Bynum and Gasol possess.
Dallas's centers are not as skilled as Gasol or Bynum, but in terms of sheer size, the Mavs actually have a slight edge because of Tyson Chandler.
Brendan Haywood and Dirk Nowitzki are both seven feet tall so the height of Dallas's starting front court is equal to LA's. When you compare backup centers Tyson Chandler and Theo Ratliff, the clear advantage goes to Chandler.
What's more, Haywood and Chandler are both defensive specialists whose length can bother the Lakers bigs more than any other team. Nowitzki has improved his defense over the last few years as well.
The Lakers' size advantage is one of their biggest against most teams. If anyone has the pieces in place to slow down Gasol and Bynum, it's Dallas.
Caron Butler - Last season was tough for Butler. He played most of his games for the lowly Wizards, who focused as much attention on dealing with Gilbert Arenas as they did on winning. He was traded to Dallas before the deadline and had 27 games to adjust to a new role, team and city. He averaged 16.3 points and 6.2 rebounds per game last season.
While these numbers are solid, Butler is capable of much more. In his four previous seasons with the Wizards Butler averaged 19.5 points and 6.6 rebounds per game.
This season, Butler will have had an entire offseason and training camp to adjust. Plus, he is in the last year of his contract, and we all know what that means for NBA players. He will be more effective in his first full season with Dallas and a great second option behind Dirk.
Experience - Jason Kidd is not the same player he used to be. He has lost a good deal of his explosiveness and can no longer stay in front of a lot of opposing guards on defense.
However, whatever Kidd has lost physically, he's replaced it with intangibles. His leadership skills are unmatched and his knowledge of the game is on display every time he steps on the court. Plus, he has become significantly more consistent from three-point range in the last couple years.
These tools have helped him remain one of the best playmakers in the league. Last season, he was fifth in the NBA in assists at 9.1 per game. He was also 11th in the league in three-point percentage at 43 percent.
The Mavs have two other notable veterans who will have an impact this year: Jason Terry and Shawn Marion.
Terry brings energy and firepower with him every time he enters the game. Combine Kidd and Terry with youngsters Jose Barea, Rodrigue Beaubois and Dominique Jones and Dallas has one of the best guard platoons in the NBA.
Marion proved to be a valuable asset on defense last year. He is still strong, athletic and quick, and he guard position two through four. He also scores a lot of hustle points by running the floor well and crashing the offensive glass.
Depth - Dallas is two or three solid players deep at point guard, shooting guard, small forward and center. The only starter without a strong backup is Dirk, but Caron Butler and Shawn Marion can both play bigger than their 6'7" frames would suggest.
Consider some of the weapons Dallas can bring off the bench: Beaubois, Barea, Terry, and Chandler. Plus, several players on this team are versatile enough to play multiple positions so we will see a wide variety of lineups.
Who Else? - Top to bottom, the Western Conference is still better than the Eastern Conference. There are a lot of good teams in the west. At least 10 of them should have legitimate playoff aspirations, but only Dallas looks to be truly capable of challenging Los Angeles right now.
Some of the other teams thought to possibly have what it takes are the Thunder, Spurs, Blazers and Rockets.
The Thunder will be good this year but they still need more time to develop. Kevin Durant got his first taste of the postseason last year and he looked like a playoff rookie. He shot just 35 percent during those six games against the Lakers, but he and the rest of the Thunder played with enough energy and heart to win two before being eliminated.
In time, Durant and Russell may develop into one of the best duos in the league. They're just not there yet.
The Spurs window is virtually shut. They're time has past and that's all there is to it. They did beat Dallas in the first round last year, but the only Mav who showed up for that series was Nowitzki. Plus, Rick Carlisle was playing Erick Dampier for extended minutes for some incomprehensible reason.
This year the Mavs will have much better chemistry and Erick Dampier is a free agent. San Antonio won't upset Dallas again, and they certainly can't compete with the Lakers.
The Blazers are an intriguing team but they always have the huge question mark attached to their health. Gred Oden will almost certainly go down at some point this year. Being injury prone is a very real thing. Some guys' bodies are just more equipped for the beatings of professional athletics than others'.
They have a lot of good young talent that will provide Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge with some support, but they still need more time to develop.
Finally, the Rockets are not quite there either. Unless, of course, they land Carmelo Anthony. If they pulled off a trade in which the major pieces involved were Anthony and Kevin Martin, they would supplant the Mavs as the Lakers chief competitors in the Western Conference.
As it stands right now, no team out west is better equipped to knock off the champs than the Mavericks.
Nearly everyone has already penciled in the Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers for the 2011 NBA Finals. This is a safe prediction, but don't be surprised if Dallas busts all those brackets.
