College Football Week 5 Predictions Against the Spread
Week 5 of the college football season brings an early gift to fans across the nation.
Four Top 10 teams do battle and to make things even more exciting, both games will provide the winner with early conference bragging rights.
Alabama vs. Florida and Oregon vs. Stanford top a list of several conference encounters this week, and while my list of games for Week 5 might be shorter than previous weeks, let us hope it won’t be short on winners.
Last week a 10-9-1 record kept me slightly above the fray and posting double-digit wins this week with only 16 games worthy of making this list might be a tall task.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at my Week 5 Predictions Against the Spread
Last Week's Record: 10-9-1
Overall Record: 44-33-3
No. 1 Alabama (-8) vs. No. 7 Florida
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Alabama’s recent escape against Arkansas displayed the toughness and resolve within this Crimson Tide squad.
Solid play by their offense and defense on the road is a great reason to believe that they can do it again against the Florida Gators in Week 5.
Florida’s offense is hardly up to par with what Alabama saw last week, but the Gators’ defense will be much more talented.
Alabama’s offense should prevail in this one; however, a nine point spread might be a little too much ask. Florida’s defense should keep this close, most likely within a touchdown or less.
Pick: Florida +8
No. 2 Ohio State (-17.5) @ Illinois
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Over the past six games against Illinois, Ohio State has only lost one.
Despite a 30-point shellacking last year, Ohio State failed to win by more than 10 points in the three previous games.
However, don’t be fooled that Illinois will be able to contend in this game. Ron Zook has seen better days in Illinois, ranking 49th and 75th in Total Defense and Total Offense respectively, and the Illini are lightyears behind the product that Ohio State is bringing to the field.
Terrelle Pryor and Ohio State’s offense have been rolling over their opponents, and even though Illinois is an upgrade, they should not have any problems annihilating this rather meager challenger.
17.5 points on the road might seem like a lot, but the Buckeyes have their sights set on that National Championship and the feeble Illini are just another opponent standing in their way.
Pick: Ohio State -17.5
No. 3 Boise State (-42.5) @ New Mexico State
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Ginormous spreads are nothing new when it comes to matchups between Boise State and New Mexico.
In the past five games between these two, Boise State has been favored by at least 21 points, topping out as a 47.5-point favorites last year.
Despite failing to cover that spread in 2009, the Broncos still dismantled the Aggies, 42-7. While the year has changed, the blowout shall remain the same.
Expect Boise State to score steadily in this contest against New Mexico’s second worst defense in the FBS. 42.5 points is high, but it should not be that much of a problem for Kellen Moore and Boise’s extremely explosive offense.
Pick: Boise State -42.5
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No. 4 Oregon (-7) vs. No. 9 Stanford
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Oregon’s No.1 scoring offense and No. 3 scoring defense face their toughest test to date this weekend.
While the Ducks’ offense and defense have looked practically immaculate for most of the season, Stanford has a quarterback and linebacker crew that has the potential to reverse this trend.
Andrew Luck currently ranks 11th in QB Rating (169.52) and is in the midst of a breakout season.
Last year, he played an intregral part in the Cardinal’s 51-42 win against Oregon, completing 60 percent of his passes and throwing for 251 yards and two touchdowns.
Stanford’s defense has also been relishing in their new 3-4 formation, ranking 11th in total offense (256.0 yards/game).
Emerging from the Autzen Zoo with a victory will be extremely difficult for Stanford, but it is not completely out of the question. Covering the spread, though, seems very likely.
Pick: Stanford +7
No. 5 TCU (-33) @ Colorado State
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Ranked 107th or lower in rushing, scoring offense, and scoring defense, Colorado State has a lot of work to do this weekend against No.5 TCU if they have any hope of staying in this game.
While the Rams’ offense finally showed up against Idaho last week, they will undoubtedly be silenced by TCU’s 12th-ranked defense.
Colorado State has failed to cover the spread against TCU in five of the past six games.
While 33.5 points is the highest spread that the Rams have faced in this time frame, a 38-point loss to the Horned Frogs last season has to provide gamblers with a little bit of confidence when laying the points on TCU.
Pick: TCU -33
No. 8 Oklahoma (-4) vs. No. 21 Texas
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The Red River Shootout might not be the most intriguing game of the week (mainly because of Texas’s mighty stumble last week), but the Longhorns vs. the Sooners will always pique interest no matter where these two teams find themselves on the AP’s Top 25 rankings.
Both teams have a bevy of underclassmen getting their first hacks at this storied rivalry, which might dilute the level of play on the field this weekend.
Oklahoma has found the brunt end of the matchup the past few seasons, losing four of the last five and failing to cover the past five spreads.
With the much more experienced Landry Jones taking the snaps for Oklahoma, the Sooners have a slight edge over Texas on the offensive side of the ball.
However, Texas is only giving up 227.8 yards per game and have thrown down the opposing QB 14 times (both 2nd in FBS).
With Texas’ stagnant offense and dominant defense, this game should be fairly low scoring.
When all is said and done, the Sooners should find a way to come out on top and a four-point spread does not seem too difficult.
Pick: Oklahoma -4
No. 10 Auburn (-35) vs. La.-Monroe
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While Auburn has steadily climbed the AP Rankings this season, covering the spread has not been something that they have excelled at.
The Tigers are 2-3 ATS in 2010 and over the past three seasons they have failed to cover any spread that reached 30 points or above.
Although La.-Monroe is a pawn that Auburn should demolish, a line this large might be too much for gamblers to chew and it is probably a good idea to go the other way.
Pick: La.-Monroe +35
No. 11 Wisconsin (-1.5) @ No. 24 Michigan State
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Michigan State has won their last two home games against Wisconsin, and this trend could very well continue this weekend.
Although the Spartans have not played the toughest of schedules, their offense has certainly turned heads in the early going. Michigan State’s scoring offense currently ranks 24th (36.8 pts/g) and their total offense is averaging an impressive 464.8 yards per game.
Wisconsin’s defense has been living up to its preseason billing, allowing only 265.3 yards and 14.3 points per game. The Badgers offense also showed off some power last week against Austin Peay, posting a 70-spot on the scoreboard.
Both teams have yet to face a top-tier opponent and this week’s game should expose which team is truly for real.
The Badgers appear to have more talent as a whole; however, their 6-15 record in East Lansing has to make you think twice about taking the Badgers this weekend.
Pick: Michigan State +1.5
No. 12 LSU (-16) vs. Tennessee
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It has been three years since the last time LSU and Tennessee squared off, and, despite the Volunteers owning an overall winning record in this series (20-7-3), they will hardly be the better team taking the field on Saturday.
While the Tigers defense is pressing and should create constant pressure on Matt Simms and Tennessee’s offense, LSU’s offense is a huge concern. So much so, that even Les Miles doesn’t seem to be sold on Jordan Jefferson and his offense.
Miles pulled Jefferson for a series late last week, and the Tigers terrible offensive production could be the culprit.
LSU currently ranks a miserable 102nd in total offense (299.8 yards per game), and covering over a two touchdown spread seems unlikely.
Pick: Tennessee +16
No. 16 Miami (-3) @ Clemson
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In a second straight game against a 16th-ranked team, Clemson is hoping this matchup will end a bit better than their last.
The Tigers lost a heartbreaker to No.16 Auburn in overtime two weeks ago, but a week off should have helped them fully prepare for the Miami Hurricanes.
Miami, on the other hand, is heading into their third straight road game. While Memorial Stadium is never an easy environment to play in, they did beat Clemson there in their only visit five years ago.
The Hurricanes’ defense has been impressive (allowing only 13 points per game) and will keep Miami in most games this season.
Don’t count the Tigers offense out of this game, though. Clemson’s rushing attack is dangerous, ranking 24th in the FBS.
Parlay that with Kyle Parker’s lively arm and they should be able to finagle a few points and possibly a victory in this game.
Although Clemson is currently not ranked, they could be by this time next week.
Pick: Clemson +3
No. 17 Iowa (-7) vs. No.22 Penn State
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Since 2001, Iowa has absolutely owned Penn State, posting a 6-1 record against the Nittany Lions and more importantly, covering six of those spreads.
Their loss to Arizona two weeks ago has many people jumping off of the Iowa bandwagon and because of this hiccup, the Hawkeyes are slightly underrated in the eyes of the media.
Iowa’s defense still ranks fifth in scoring, and Penn State’s youth-filled offense should struggle to find the end zone this weekend.
Although Penn State’s defense is also one the of the best in the nation (8th in Scoring Defense), Ricky Stanzi and Iowa’s offense have a decent edge in this battle and should be able to win this home game pretty handily.
Pick: Iowa -7
No. 18 USC (-10) vs. Washington
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As the saying goes “You can never go home again” and after Steve Sarkisian’s Huskies upset USC last season, Southern California should be a very unwelcoming place for the ex-assistant coach.
Washington entered the year with a ton of preseason hype, but several porous performances have deflated this balloon rather quickly.
On the flip side, USC has done their best to distance themselves from their negative offseason buzz by starting the season 4-0 for the first time since 2007.
The Huskies have lost four straight in Southern California, only covering one spread in that time span.
USC appears to be maturing much faster than Washington this season, and this game should follow the same path as it has in the past.
Pick: USC -10
No.19 Michigan (-10) @ Indiana
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Denard Robinson was questionable earlier this week about his availability for this game, but recent news has revealed that the outstanding quarterback will play for Michigan’s Big Ten opener.
While Indiana is boasting 3-0 record with pretty decent offensive stats, the quality of teams that they have faced has been elementary.
The Hoosiers have yet to face a force like Robinson and with him healthy, this game has the makings of a complete rout.
Pick: Michigan -10
No. 23 North Carolina State vs. Virginia Tech (-4)
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North Carolina State enters the AP’s Top 25 for the first time this season, but fails to impress the Vegas bookmakers enough to be a favorite against the unstable Virginia Tech Hookies.
The Wolfpack ranks 19th in both passing yards (289.3 yrds/g) and Points For (37.8 pts/g) and junior quarterback Russell Wilson should be given most of the praise.
Wilson has thrown for 1,112 yards this season and is tied for second in the FBS with 11 touchdowns.
Virginia Tech’s offense is quite similar to the Georgia Tech offense that NC State faced last week and a similar outcome is not completely out of the question.
If Wilson can keep up his early season success, the Wolf Pack could start of the season 5-0 for the first time since 2002.
Pick: North Carolina State +4
No. 25 Nevada (-20.5) @ UNLV
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Nevada has started off the season with a bang and this season’s Battle for Nevada should be a blowout of epic proportions.
UNLV’s ambitious schedule to start off the year might have been too much for the Rebels to chew and the Wolf Pack will be third ranked team that they will face this season.
The dual threat in Colin Kaepernick has been a lethal weapon for Nevada. Thanks to the speedy quarterback, the Wolf Pack have rattled off four straight wins to kick off the season and are on the verge of 5-0 for the first time since 1948.
Nevada has won five straight in this intra-state rivalry, winning the last game by a spread of 35. Expect another demolishing this weekend, covering 21 points and then some.
Pick: Nevada -20.5
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma State (-3)
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In this prime-time battle of undefeated teams, only one will be able emerge unscathed.
Oklahoma State touts the No. 2-ranked passing offense (391.7 yrds/g) and scoring offense (57.0 pts/g) in the FBS and should create a world of difficulties for Texas A&M.
However, the Aggies defense has been pristine through the first three weeks of play, ranking 10th in the FBS in Total Defense (255.7 yds/g).
Neither team has really played an opponent that validates these inflated numbers, though, so the rubber will truly meet the road in this Big 12 showdown.
The Cowboys offense will be the toughest test that the Aggies defense has had to face so far, and this should take its toll on the scoreboard.
Oklahoma State should come out from this game as the victor, but it will probably be a very ugly game.
Pick: Oklahoma State -3
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
