Let's Play Trade

Republished with permission from the Chicago Sports Review

Growing up in the Chicagoland area, I was constantly barraged as a teenager by the crazy machinations of trades and moves from Chicago Tribune columnist Sam Smith. It got so bad that on his way out of town, Jerry Krause actually made business cards for Smith with the title of "Fake GM." Despite their usual implausibility, the ideas were always fun. As an homage to those works, here are two trade ideas I came up with late at night, when I should have been resting for my day job.

In my reasons for each trade, I will justify them as mutually exclusive events. For the non-economics majors out there, that means I will explain why each trade makes sense on its own. Only how each new addition affects the players on the current roster will be considered. Ultimately the Bulls could do one or both deals, but I will evaluate them as unique possibilities.

Trade Idea #1

Hawks give up:
F/C - Zaza Pachulia

Bulls give up:
PG - Chris Duhon
C - Aaron Gray
2008 second-round pick

The Hawks would agree to this trade mostly to acquire their point guard of the future in Chris Duhon. After passing on Deron Williams, Chris Paul and Mike Conley in recent drafts, the Hawks have a lot of good young assets, but no conductor to guide their orchestra of talents.

Currently they use Anthony Johnson and Tyronn Lue to run the point. While both of them are proven NBA players, most fans would agree they are best served coming off the bench. They drafted Acie Law IV this past offseason to hopefully run the point, but he has been injured part of the year and is really a 2-guard in a point guard's body.

Adding Duhon would make their best young players - Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and Al Horford - better immediately. He is not a player who needs to shoot to be productive, and that is important for a Hawks team where too many players just score. Duhon has backed up Captain Kirk for most of his career, but has proven he deserves a chance to be a starting point guard and run his own team.

After drafting Horford and Marvin Williams the past couple of years, the Hawks have enough big man depth that they could afford to lose Pachulia to upgrade a position of need. Getting Gray is a nice bonus for them, as he makes basically the minimum and could turn out to be a solid bench-level big man. Plus, second round picks are probably the most underrated asset in the NBA (see Gilbert Arenas and Carlos Boozer).

In a similar vein, this trade makes sense for the Bulls: dealing from a surplus to upgrade a team weakness. With both Hinrich and Ben Gordon capable of running the point, Duhon is a nice piece for the current team, but expendable. Especially considering the Bulls will probably lose him in the free agent market this offseason.

Adding Pachulia to the rotation addresses the biggest flaw of the current roster: inside scoring. Pachulia is not the most well-rounded player, but he does score. He has averaged 12 PPG over the past two years, and made over 52% of his shots in the immediate basket area last season.

As most fans and media members have already said, if the Bulls had inside scoring it would dramatically alter the team's current offense. An inside threat would open things up for Hinrich, Gordon and Deng on the outside. Futhermore, having defenders forced to guard Zaza, as opposed to freelancing off the current big men, would open up driving lanes for the aforementioned three to get to the hoop.

Contract-wise, Pachulia only has one year left on his deal (after this one) for $4 million. While that's big money for you and me, it is very palpable for a starter-quality NBA big man; especially considering Zaza is only 23, and most NBA big men do not mature until their mid 20's. Giving up Gray could sting down the road, but what Gray might bring to the team in a year or two, Pachulia would deliver today.

Trade Idea #2

Kings give up:
PG - Mike Bibby

Bulls give up:
SG - Ben Gordon
PF - Joe Smith (NOTE: Cannot be traded until 12/15/07)
F - Viktor Khryapa
2008 first-round pick (lottery protected)

It is a good thing the Bulls are in the East. Sitting at 7-13, they are very much still alive in the playoff hunt, while the Kings, at 8-12 in the West, are basically in rebuilding mode. Given that, this trade works quite well for them going forward.

There have been rumors that Sacramento has wanted to trade Bibby for a while now, with the most likely trading partner being the Miami Heat. Given that the Heat's best offer revolves around Jason Williams' expiring contract, it would be easy for the Bulls to offer a more attractive deal.

The biggest thing the Kings want back in any Bibby deal, I think, is cap space and young assets. Khryapa has a small deal that is up this off-season, and both Smith and Gordon make less than Bibby combined. Ideally, the Bulls would be able to work out a sign-and-trade of PJ Brown (with a deal that has a team option to expire this coming offseason) to replace Smith in the deal. I am not sure if that works under the CBA, which is why I used Smith. If it did, though, it would give the Kings a lot of money off their books for the coming offseason. Brown would not even have to play for the Kings, just collect millions for helping the deal go through.

While the Kings could choose not to resign Gordon this offseason for more room under the cap, odds are they would keep him. He may be the best young asset the Kings could get for Bibby at this point. He is not a point guard, but he could be very valuable for them coming off the bench behind Kevin Martin. Beno Udrih seems to have cemented their starting PG spot for the future, anyway.

If things did not work out with Gordon, they could still use him in a sign and trade this summer to get something they do want. In addition, the first-round pick would be a nice piece to add as they try to reshape their team going forward.

Finally, from the Kings' end, this deal lets them move Bibby while still keeping Artest (Miami wants Artest included in a deal). This is good for the Kings, because the way Ron is playing right now they could get value trading just him. The biggest thing, though, is that this trade lets Sacramento finally move forward from the last generation of Kings teams to their new squad, led by Martin.

From Chicago's end, the best reason to make this trade is to get a point guard who has proven he knows how to run a team. As the Bulls lack a proven inside scoring threat, point-guard play is critically important. Bibby would be able to maximize the abilites of Smith, Thomas, Noah and Wallace, while also making Hinrich and Deng better.

Whether it is in the half-court offense or on the fast break, having a leader making good decisions would improve everyone. Offensive possessions would likely be far more efficient, and the roster's offensive potential would be maximized. Losing Gordon's scoring would hurt, but the improved scoring of everyone else (plus Bibby's career 16.8 PPG) would more than make up for the loss.

Bibby has proven he is a high-caliber NBA point; the only reason he has not made an All-Star team is because there has always been a John Stockton, Gary Payton or Steve Nash ahead of him. He has played big in big-time playoff games, and seems to need a change of scenery. This is his seventh year with the Kings, and the glory days of Webber, Divac, Peja & Christie are long gone.

Furthermore, he is approaching that magical age for point guards - 30. It is a time in a player's career where his physical skills plateau, but his mental game jumps to the next level and makes him more effective overall. Steve Nash and Chauncey Billups are excellent recent examples of this. While I am not saying Bibby will win 2 MVP's or an NBA title, he will be the best point guard the Bulls franchise has seen since before the Jordan era.

Defensively, Bibby is a definite upgrade over Ben Gordon, and with the remaining core intact, this should improve what is already the greatest strength of the Bulls team.

With regards to how the move affects the remaining roster, it would be an important shift for the Bulls at the 2-guard position. This has to be the last season of the Gordon and Hinrich backcourt. The defensive liabilities are too great, combined with the fact that Kirk is really a 2, and has no business running an NBA team.

The question then becomes - which undersized 2-guard is the best for the Bulls going forward? Contract issues aside, I feel Kirk is the man.

Gordon is definitely the better scorer and clutch performer, there is no argument there. But what Hinrich lacks in scoring, he makes up in the rest of his game. He is one of the better defensive guards in the league, while Gordon is basically a non-entity defensively. And even if Kirk cannot run a team, as a 2-guard he would already be one of the top passers at his position. Considering all the energy Hinrich has to expend making up for Gordon's deficiencies, the scoring gap may also lessen if Kirk had a point guard who could get him the ball in the right spots.

And, yes, before you ask, I do realize that Bibby has yet to play a game this year. He has been making progress since his late October surgery, though, and recently had the cast on his left hand removed. He should be back by mid-January at the latest, which would be more than enough time for the Bulls to secure a playoff spot.

The key factor in both of these trades is - unlike past ideas and missed opportunities with Bryant and Garnett - they do not gut the current roster. They cut off small parts to amplify the remaining core; a core which is probably still too young to fairly judge, and could turn out to be well worth passing on those two aging superstars, regardless of what I have written in the past.

These are only two ideas in that course; obviously there are many other possibilities. At the end of the day, though, I think this is the direction the Bulls should head towards. Kobe would be nice, sure. But ultimately, he would only make the Bulls a lock to lose in the second or third playoff round every year. Keeping this core fundamentally intact and acquiring some complementary pieces could take them much further.

Écrit près Charlie Danoff