Michigan Football: 12 Obstacles the Wolverines Must Navigate For a Big Ten Title
Led by Heisman candidate Denard Robinson, Michigan's offense has exploded thus far this year. Michigan ranks No. 2 in rushing offense at 331.25 yards per game, No. 2 in total offense at 562.75 yards per game, No. 11 in points per game at 41.25, and boasts an 89 percent red zone success rate.
So, it would seem that Michigan is well on its way to cruising to a Big Ten title, right?
Well, as Lee Corso would say: "Not so fast, my friend!"
Michigan still has plenty of obstacles it must navigate in order for the Wolverines to be anywhere near the conference title, and there very well may be a few more than the 12 listed here, but I digress.
On to the slides.
The Schedule Is Rough
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Playing in the Big Ten is rough for any team, but Michigan has five games against AP Top 25 opponents coming up (MSU, Iowa, PSU, Wisconsin, and Ohio State)—this is more than any other team that is in the Top 25.
That's quite a difficult schedule to navigate, and it will take every bit of Michigan's offensive explosiveness if the Wolverines are going to make a statement in conference play this year.
Luckily, MSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin are home, so that tips things slightly for the Wolverines, but with Big Ten teams climbing into (or up) the polls, it's looking like a tough road ahead.
A Depleted Secondary
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We all knew Michigan's secondary was going to be suspect this year, and when Troy Woolfolk went down with an injury, we all knew it was going to be worse.
Michigan's secondary will be up against the conference's best quarterbacks—Tolzien, Pryor, Chappell, Stanzi, Cousins, etc.—and the unit might just be the Achilles heel that keeps the Wolverines from doing something very special this year.
Michigan currently ranks 105th of 120 FBS schools, allowing 264.75 passing YPG thus far.
The unit seems to be plagued by mental errors—inexplicably missed assignments, poor tackling, and overall just being torched.
This unit will have to tighten things up a bit and at least play at an average level for Michigan to have a shot at the Big Ten crown.
Blown Coverage
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Remember the time that tight end Kyle Rudolph got by Cam Gordon for a 95-yard TD run? Tight ends are responsible for the short passes, not 95-yard touchdown runs!
That's the very definition of blown coverage, and it's happening too frequently for the good QBs that Michigan is going to face.
And while Michigan limited the big plays against UMass (the Minutemen's longest gain was 19 yards), they allowed a 95-yard TD run coupled with a 53-yard TD catch and run to ND, and they allowed a 71-yard pass to a tight end against Bowling Green.
It's not just Cam Gordon. Jordan Kovacs* has had his fair share of missed assignments as well. And while they are young, I would prefer to see them step up and not hide behind that excuse as a shield.
I would like to see them get better every game—but they consistently get torched. Even though Michigan allowed just 283 yards to Bowling Green, 251 of them were passing! Those passing yards came from two backup QBs from a mid-to-bottom tier MAC school, and that is disheartening.
If the safeties get to their assignments and don't botch their cover, that will do wonders for a secondary that won't be outstanding, but won't be referred to as the weakest link either.
*Despite the missed assignments at times, Kovacs has recorded 35 tackles, an INT, forced fumble, and fumble recovery this year. Things like that atone for some other things, like the blown coverage.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Injuries
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Any team normally has to worry about injuries, but for Michigan, a few key injuries could be catastrophic.
And while Michigan has two backup QBs that demonstrated they are fully capable of calling the shots, in the words of Rich Rod, "Denard is special."
If Denard goes down—which may or may not happen—the offense will be productive still, but not nearly as dynamic. He's successfully stopped my heart in three of four games (UConn, ND, and BGSU).
Furthermore, isn't it peculiar that most of the people injured are on the defensive side of the ball? The angry Michigan-hating gods are quite vengeful, it would seem. Carvin Johnson, a desperately needed safety, has been out with an a knee injury, Troy Woolfolk (CB) went down with a broken ankle, linebacker Mike Jones (leg) is out for the season, Brandon Herron (LB) has an ankle injury, John Ferrara (DE) is out with a hand injury, Jared Van Slyke (Safety) is out with a clavicle injury, and Michael Williams (FS) is out with a concussion.
That's our injured list, and they're all defensive players. It figures that our thinnest unit would be hardest hit with injuries, but such is life.
If Michigan can survive without any serious injuries (Denard getting the wind knocked out of him, then coming right back in is bearable, barely) then the offense should continue to roll.
Lack of Sacks
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Perhaps the best relief for our secondary is a strong defensive front, and with Mike Martin anchoring the line, Michigan's front should be doing just fine, shouldn't they?
Certainly they are the strong point of a weak defense (not giving accolades), but it is frustrating to watch the opposing QBs get away clean after they should have been sacked. Michigan did record 3 sacks against BGSU, which was an improvement, but with as much as I see Roh and Van Bergen in the backfield like they are, the lack of sacks is somewhat disturbing.
If Michigan can pressure the good QBs we're going to face—starting with Chappell this Saturday—and get them to make some ill-advised throws, or better, get him to the ground before he can get the ball off, the defense will look much better and the secondary could breathe a sigh of relief.
I can recall many a time where Dayne Crist should've been on the ground, yet managed to get all of the time in the world he needed to pass.
Poor Tackling/Missed Tackles
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This is a huge problem that seems to have carried over from last year.
The defense has no problem getting to the ball carrier, but bringing him down is another story altogether! Opposing RBs frequently break through two, three, or even four tackles turning a two-yard gain into a nine- or 10-yard gain.
There are two contributors: arm tackling and poor angles.
I vividly recall a play in which the UMass running back ran right, and Kovacs was right there waiting for him. He should've been tackled right there, but when Kovacs went in, he chose the wrong angle and let the runner get outside of him. The play that started as a no-gain for Massachusetts turned into a 15-yard gain as their back scampered up the sideline. The defenders need to choose wisely their route of attack and be careful not to break contain.
If Michigan can get fundamentally better at wrapping up and bringing the runner down, that will go a long ways in Michigan's Big Ten title hunt.
Missed Field Goals
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To say Michigan's special teams have issues is, well, worthy of the award of "understatement of the year."
The kickers have combined to go 1-for-5 on field goals for a dismal 20 percent success rate. That's not going to be anywhere near good enough if the game comes down to the wire, and with two of Michigan's four victories coming by less than a touchdown, it's clear that the kicking situation needs to be figured out before Michigan can truly contend for a Big Ten championship.
Rich Rod's answer? Don't ever be in a position to need to kick a field goal. Score a TD on every drive. Michigan came close, scoring on 9 of 11 drives, but don't expect the march down the field to be quite as easy when the Big Ten season starts—Michigan will find itself in positions where the kicking game means the difference in going home "The Victors" or going home in silence.
Not-So-Great Placekicking
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Continuing with Michigan's epic fails that call themselves special teams, the placekicking needs work.
Michigan did do better against Bowling Green, with most kicks making it inside the five (a couple inside the 10). This is marked improvement over the previous three games, in which the ball struggled to make it to the 15-yard line. And when your unit is allowing an average of 17.39 yards per return and your defense struggles like it does, the last thing you want to do is allow your opponent to start at the 35-yard line.
Michigan's placekicking will need to continue to improve so that opponents can be pinned deep in their own territory to start drives, instead of dangerously close to midfield. This will help the defense tremendously.
Problems at Punting
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Are you starting to see the trend here?
If not, I'll give you some help: The special teams are bad, very bad.
And punting is no exception.
Fair enough, Will Hagerup is a true freshman, and not much can usually be expected of a true freshman, but if Hagerup wants to earn the respect of the student section like Zoltan Mesko did (see the student section put their hands in a "Z" shape when he punts), then he's got some work to do.
He's shown promise in a couple very nice punts—including a nice 53-yard punt against Connecticut and a 51-yard punt against Notre Dame—but he is only averaging 39 yards. His longest punt against UMass was only 33 yards.
If the student section is going to put their hands in the shape of a "W" when they punt (something Hagerup says he is striving for), it's going to take a bit more distance (think in the high 40s to 50-yard average). Certainly he is capable of it.
Getting the opponents as far away from the end zone as they can via punting will only assist a rather abysmal defense.
Too Many Penalties
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Michigan is ranked 26th (in a massive tie) in FBS with a total of 19 penalties. Perhaps more telling is that Michigan comes up at 50th with 186 penalty yards.
While certainly not the worst it could be, it isn't the greatest. Michigan received penalties on every single punt return and had many illegal blocks against Bowling Green.
Michigan is not good enough (yet) to shoot themselves in the foot and still be alright.
Question at Running Back
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Michigan has very capable running backs—Mike Shaw, Vincent Smith, Fitzgerald Toussaint, Mike Cox, and Stephen Hopkins.
Mike Shaw is probably the best for the time being, but no backs have really set themselves apart from the pack. Rodriguez says he will continue to rotate two or three of them, which means none really have a chance to emerge as a go-to guy.
Toussaint looked great in his debut—garnering 61 yards on just two carries—but it appears he has the injury bug that plagued Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown. He was out all last season with a knee injury and just when things were looking good, he's listed as doubtful for Indiana with a shoulder injury.
Vincent Smith looks alright, but one can definitely see he hasn't recovered from his ACL surgery yet—he's not as quick or agile as he used to be.
Mike Shaw was injured with a sprained knee against BGSU, so his action will likely be limited against Indiana.
Perhaps the biggest reason the running backs aren't standing out is because they have to share carries with Denard Robinson, who currently leads the nation in rushing. But still, it would be nice if Michigan could get one or two backs to step above the rest and take a bit of the rushing load off of Denard—it will monumentally help Michigan's Big Ten aspirations to have a healthy and dangerous threat (that isn't named Denard Robinson).
Ohio State
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Ohio State has outright won or shared the conference title the last five years.
And with the Buckeyes in contention for the national title, this year doesn't look to be any easier than any other year. Ohio State is probably the biggest hurdle Michigan has to jump in order to win the title. This, of course, is in outright terms. Michigan could theoretically share the title with Ohio State, but what fun is that?
Rivalry games are one of the greatest aspects of college football, and if Michigan wants to truly "be back" and wants a true shot at the Big Ten crown, they're going to have to beat Ohio State. If not this year, then soon.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
