Fantasy NBA: What To Expect From Yao Ming in 2010
With more information on Yao's expected playing time, we can get quick projections of his expected production. The following table shows Yao's forecasted stats for the 2010-11 season:
In 2008-09, Yao averaged roughly 21 pts, 10.6 rebs, two blks, all with stellar percentages per-36 minutes of playing time. Using this season's statistics, we can roughly pin down what Yao will produce in the upcoming year. Under a strict 24-minute limit, averages of 14 pts, seven rebs, and 1.4 blks per game seem reasonable if we assume no drop off in Yao's efficiency or usage. However, early in the season, this assumption may be inappropriate as Yao may need some time to regain his rhythm from two years ago.
Fantasy Outlook
These rough estimates suggest that Yao still has the potential to be a solid contributor for any fantasy team. But his days as a surefire first- or second-round pick are on pause until his foot can withstand more minutes again. The fact that the Rockets may hold Yao out of the second game in back-to-backs is another factor to consider.
In Matt Buser's Big Board, Yao is currently ranked ahead of Lamar Odom, Greg Oden, and Blake Griffin. Based on my forecast of Blake Griffin earlier this summer, Greg Oden's own injury risks, and Lamar Odom's historical production, Buser's rankings are appropriate for single-season leagues. In keeper leagues, however, it is imperative to jump on Blake well ahead of Yao.
