Michigan Football: What to Expect When Bowling Green Falcons Swoop In Saturday

The Falcons of Bowling Green State University arrive in Ann Arbor with a 1-2 record, dropping contests to Troy and Tulsa.

Troy kicked a field goal with 4 seconds left in the game to win the contest 30-27 and, with the aid of QB Matt Schilz's 5 sacks and 3 INTs, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane managed to amass 520 yards of total offense en route to a 33-20 decision.

So what can the Wolverines expect when the Falcons come to town on Saturday?

Michigan's Rush Attack vs. Bowling Green's Rush Defense
Michigan found another option in RB Mike Shaw, who had a career day last weekend against the Minutement of Massachusetts.  He carried the ball 12 times for 126 yards en route to 3 TDs and had nice runs of 34 and 50 yards a piece.  This is on top of super-stud QB Denard Robinson who currently leads the nation in rushing yards (559) and rushing yards per game (186.3).  Suffice to say, the Wolverines are developing quite a threat on the ground.

This threat may prove fatal for a Bowling Green defense who returned only 4 starters this year, and were forced to replace their entire linebackers unit.  It does appear that Dwayne Woods has emerged a threat at LB.  The sophomore won MAC East defensive player of the week after BGSU's 44-28 victory over Marshall in which he recorded 9 tackles, 2 pass breakups, and an INT he returned 78 yards for a TD.  He may be the one true threat to the Wolverines' running game.  Their defensive line and LBs are allowing 194 rushing yards per game, good for 98th in FBS (alright, I'll be fair, Michigan doesn't rank much better at #80, but that is neither here nor there). 

If the offensive line can continue doing their thing like they have been doing (as well as keeping Woods in check), then it might be a long day for the Falcons' front.

Advantage: MICHIGAN

Michigan's Pass Attack vs. Bowling Green's Pass Defense
Denard Robinson's passing numbers were average over the first two weeks of the season, but he demonstrated his playmaking ability this past weekend against UMass.  Robinson was 10 for 14 (71.4%) for 241 yards and 2 TDs with 1 INT, good for a pass efficiency of 250.  Darryl Stonum and Roy Roundtree look to be a couple go-to receivers, while basketball-player-gone-gridion Kelvin Grady recorded a nice 43 yard reception this past weekend against the Minutemen.

Alright, so Michigan can run and pass the ball.  But what about the Falcon secondary?

Again, Michigan's offensive line will play a key role in pass protection.  They've been extremely good this year, allowing just 1 sack, and if this play continues there will be a definite aerial threat.

Much like the linebackers, 4 defensive backs needed to be replaced this year.  They rank 111th in FBS allowing 312 passing yards per game (!!), which is staggering.  Expect Michigan to exploit this weakness and Robinson to again impress with his arm.  Tulsa managed 9 passes that ended in 15 or more yards for the Golden Hurricane.  Much like Michigan, BGSU has a significant dearth of talent in their secondary and are looking for answers.

Advantage: MICHIGAN

Bowling Green's Rushing Attack vs. Michigan's Rushing Defense
While I am inclined to say "What rush defense?" I'll save that comment for the secondary.  The Minutemen exposed a significant weakness in Michigan's rush defense - frequently gashing the Wolverine's front for 4 or 5 yard gains on 1st downs.  In fact, Michigan's line and linebackers frequently allowed a 4 or 5 yard play turn into a 10 yard run.

For what it's worth, both Craig Roh and Cam Gordon promised the defense will atone for the the game in which they gave up 426 yards to an FCS school.

Bowling Green is sporting 83.3 rushing yards per game (half of what Denard is doing himself).  This is good for 111th in FBS play.  And just as our rush defense was non-existent against UMass, it appears that BGSU has had trouble getting any form of a rush attack to materialize this year.  Their biggest threat is Willie Geter, a 5 foot 7 explosive back.  He was named one of Ohio's 6 best backs and has ran for 243 yards on 66 carries for 2 TDs.  This works out to be 3.6 yards per carry.  If the Wolverines can contain him, they will shut down any hopes of establishing a running game for the Falcons.

Advantage: MICHIGAN

Bowling Green's Pass Attack vs. Michigan's Pass Defense
Michigan is struggling to find a viable combination that works at secondary - allowing 271.67 yards per game for reasons that everyone has heard.  There's not much talent, and what talent is there is young - redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd being the only player with any college starts (he had 2 prior to the season).  So yeah, err, the pass defense is ... less than desireable.

The secondary can breathe a sigh of relief as BGSU's starting QB, Matt Schilz, is listed as 'doubtful' for the game this Saturday.  Schilz and WR Kamar Jorden were starting something special, after seeing almost nothing in '09, Jorden has exploded for 34 receptions for 343 yards and a TD in 3 games.  It appears that without Matt, the offense might have a hard time getting any sort of production in the air.  Then again, Helen Keller could probably start against the young Wolverines secondary and still fare a great chance of torching them.

The choice for the Falcons at QB is either sophomore Aaron Pankratz or freshman Kelly Pagel.  Pagel has never played in a collegiate game, and Pankratz' experience consists of mop up duty against Marshall.  He was pretty effective against the Herd though, going 5 of 8 for 111 yards for 1 TD and an INT (195 pass efficiency rating).

Until Michigan's secondary proves me wrong, I don't care who goes against them, the opponent seems to win.

Advantage: TIED

Special Teams
The blocked punt, Michigan going 1 for 5 on FG attempts, the poor punting (Hagerup averaged 16 yards per punt and fumbled a snap, leading to the blocked punt), placekicking (balls landing on the 10 or 15 yard line), and Rich Rod's plea for any "student in good standing who can kick a ball to come and try out again."

And that sums it up.

Advantage: BOWLING GREEN

At first, I figured this would be a relatively high-scoring game with both teams sporting anemic secondaries, but with BGSU's starting QB going down and their average of 83.3 rush yards per game, I suspect that the Falcons won't see that much production on offense, even against a sub par Michigan defense.

It's going to be tough for any team to replace 14 of 22 starters, as the Falcons were forced to do this season.  Expect Michigan to move the ball often and for long distances against one of few defenses that could be worse than ours.

Result?
MICHIGAN 48, Bowling Green 17