Week 3 College Football Picks Against the Spread: Can Iowa Withstand Arizona?
The college football season is rapidly moving forward, and while Week 3 does not have the eye-popping matchups that last week provided, there are many games that should grab your interest at first glance.
Although there are still several teams enjoying the savory tastes of a cupcake game, cross BCS conference play is producing many alluring contests that will make for an extremely exciting weekend.
Last week, a 13-7 record boosted up my overall winning percentage to 57.5 percent, and things are definitely looking up.
With only two weeks in the books, though, it is hard to get excited about this progress. But let’s see if we can pick more winners this week and try to reach that overall win goal of 60 percent.
Last Week's Record: 13-7
Overall Record: 23-15-2
No. 1 Alabama (-23.5) @ Duke
1 of 20
Alabama’s first road challenge of the 2010 season comes against the often-struggling Duke Blue Devils.
An intense atmosphere in Week 2 might lay the ground work for a trap game in Durham for the Crimson Tide this weekend, but even the biggest dreamers have to realize that this is highly unlikely.
Duke’s shootout with Wake Forest last week proves that its defense is far from suffocating and that Alabama's multiple weapons should find several different avenues into the end zone. Unfortunately for Duke, Alabama’s defense will not allow this feeble offense to participate in any kind of back and forth throughout this game.
Alabama should have a particularly easy time devouring the Blue Devils, and a four touchdown spread is not completely out of the question.
Pick: Alabama -23.5
No. 2 Ohio State (-32) Vs. Ohio
2 of 20
The Ohio Bobcats have taken on the tall task of playing the juggernaut that is Ohio State two times. Both times, the final score didn’t exactly turn the heads of the masses.
Ohio State has owned this in-state rival, outscoring Ohio 66-30. However, in these two matchups the Buckeyes failed to cover the spread.
As THE Ohio State demonstrated in its opener against Marshall, they are more than capable of putting up points in a hurry, and the same occurrence could take place this weekend against these rather weak Bobcats.
A 32-point spread doesn’t seem like too far of a reach, but I have a feeling Jim Tressel will ease off the gas once this game starts to get out of hand.
Pick: Ohio +32
No. 3 Boise State (-23.5) @ Wyoming
3 of 20
A rather inept Wyoming squad faces off against the high-powered Boise State Broncos in its second straight game at a Top Five team's stadium.
Last week, Texas got off to a slow start against the Cowboys and fell just short of the 29-point spread. But Boise State is rested, a little peeved about Virginia Tech’s loss to a sub-division school, and will need to impress those BCS computers with unbelievable scoring margins from here on out.
Although Boise State will have to deal with being away from Idaho, they proved against VT that this is not a problem.
In the four meetings between these teams, the Broncos have yet to lose a game. However, covering the spread against the Cowboys has been a slight problem.
Don’t let this stop you from taking Boise State in this game, though. The Broncos need to light up that scoreboard if they have any hope to play for a National Championship in January and the Cowboys will see firsthand that this team can keep the pedal to the metal for long periods of time.
Pick: Boise State -23.5
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No. 4 TCU (-21.5) Vs. Baylor
4 of 20
The TCU train continues to roll, and in its final scheduled game against a BCS opponent, the Horned Frogs will look to increase the buzz surrounding their team as much as humanly possible.
While Baylor is hardly part of the BCS elite, the Bears possess a dual threat quarterback that is unlike anything TCU as seen so far this season. However, TCU’s No. 20 rushing D should be able to fill the gaps and force Robert Griffin III to use his arm.
TCU has won two straight in this series, taking the last matchup three years ago, 27-0.
The Horned Frogs’ rushing offense currently ranks 10th in the FBS, averaging 274 yards over the past two games. Baylor’s No. 57 rush defense (125 yard/game) should have its hands full with TCU’s two-headed backfield.
Throw Andy Dalton into that equation and TCU should be able to prove to the BCS that this Non-AQ school is head and shoulders above some of the schools currently in the BCS.
Pick: TCU -21.5
No. 6 Texas (-3) @ Texas Tech
5 of 20
The battle for the Chancellor’s Spurs takes place in Lubbock this year and the Texas Longhorns face their toughest test in this young season.
Texas’s offense has been sputtering along the past few weeks, finally showing signs of life in the second half of last week’s game against Wyoming. In that game, Garrett Gilbert threw for 222 yards (a career high) and his first passing touchdown of the season.
Gilbert will need to shine even more this week in order for Longhorns to emerge from this rivalry game as the victor. Luckily for the young quarterback, the Red Raider passing defense has been anything but perfect so far this season.
Texas Tech’s passing defense ranks 105th in FBS, allowing an average of 277 yards per game. But, don’t be surprised if the Red Raiders try to make this game a shootout.
Taylor Potts and the Red Raiders offense are averaging 334.5 yards per game, good enough to place them 11th in the country. However, Texas’s defense should be able to withstand most of the power that this offense can fire at them and confirm its current AP ranking.
Pick: Texas -3
No. 7 Oklahoma (-17) Vs. Air Force
6 of 20
The Sooners could have their hands full this weekend with the nation’s No. 1 rushing offense heading into town. The Air Force is averaging 423 rushing yards per game, ranking seventh in average points scored (51) as well.
While these numbers are very impressive, Oklahoma made an enormous statement last weekend with their complete dismantling of the Florida State Seminoles.
Landry Jones spearheaded Oklahoma’s unstoppable offense, completing 70 percent of his passes and collecting four touchdowns in the process.
In the only meeting between these two teams in 2001, the Sooners annihilated the Falcons 44-3. Although this year’s version of the Air Force is much improved, Oklahoma should be able to cover this rather meager spread.
Pick: Oklahoma -17
No. 8 Nebraska (-3) @ Washington
7 of 20
Nebraska faces its first real test of the season, putting its perfect record on the line in a road game against Jake Locker and Washington’s extremely dangerous offense.
While their two wins were against very weak teams, Nebraska looked pristine on both sides of the ball and seem ready to take on this much tougher opponent.
Husky Stadium will be rumbling for this game, though, and a rather unpolished Nebraska offense might find a bevy of troubles throughout the game.
Also, Locker knows how to get the ball into the end zone, tossing five touchdowns this season and averaging 277.5 passing yards per game. His favorite receiver Jermaine Kearse should also be a menace for a Nebraska secondary that has allowed an average of 168.5 passing yards per game despite only seeing second tier quarterbacks.
This game is definitely difficult to read. Nebraska’s running game could take over, especially against Washington’s somewhat weak run defense (129 yards/game). Nonetheless, underestimating Locker and this Huskies offense at home might come back to bite people who want to lay money on the Cornhuskers.
Pick: Washington +3
No. 9 Iowa (-2) @ No. 24 Arizona
8 of 20
Iowa and Arizona have made some enormous strides over the past two seasons and both teams have quickly become dark horse contenders to take their conferences in 2010.
Iowa’s defense has been suffocating in its first two games this season, allowing only 14 points and ranking ninth in total defense (216 yards/game).
Arizona’s offense, on the other hand, has been explosive, averaging 46.5 points per game thanks in large part to its flame throwing quarterback Nick Foles.
More impressively, Arizona has yet to give up a touchdown this season, currently ranked second in points against with four points per game.
While these numbers for Arizona are all hunky dory, Iowa’s defense has unbelievable talent and should be able to slow down Foles and the rest of the Wildcats’ offense. On the flip side, Ricky Stanzi and the Iowa offense should be able to find holes in Arizona’s secondary and sneak in a touchdown or two before this game is over.
This game will be close, but Iowa should be able to squeak out a three-point victory.
Pick: Iowa -2
No. 10 Florida (-15) @ Tennessee
9 of 20
Despite starting off the season 2-0, Florida has slipped down the AP Top 25 rankings for two straight weeks and many blame its inconsistent offense for the tumble.
If third down conversions are a measure of anything, the Gators are in a bit of trouble. Through the second week of play, Florida has converted third downs at a 32 percent clip, ranking 92nd in the FBS.
They have also have had problems with just getting first downs altogether. Their 33 total first downs ranks 87th and leaves many to wonder just where this team is headed
While Tennessee might have problems scoring on Florida’s shut down defense, the Volunteers' No. 39 defense might be able to contain these Gators to minimal amounts of points.
Florida’s unsettled offense makes a 15-point spread in their first SEC game of the year a little worrisome. The Gators should be able to pull out the victory, but Tennessee might be able to use the crowd to its advantage and keep this game close.
Pick: Tennessee +15
No. 11 Wisconsin (-14) Vs. Arizona State
10 of 20
Wisconsin squares off against its first BCS opponent of the season and Arizona State is anxious to prove that they are not the pee-ons that they have been the past few years.
The Sun Devils have become accustomed to winning their first two games of the season, but have not won three straight to start off a year since 2007. This tilt against Wisconsin kicks off three straight weeks against Top 25 teams for ASU and this rugged schedule does not bode well for their BCS bowl hopes.
Although the Sun Devils’ rushing defense currently ranks seventh in the FBS (61.5 yards per game), Wisconsin should majorly rely on John Clay and its running game to dominate the ball in this game.
ASU will look to keep this game close by torching the skies with Steven Threet’s accurate arm. He currently ranks sixth amongst BCS quarterbacks, averaging 315 yards per game.
While Wisconsin should win this game outright, covering the spread has been a problem for them this season and ASU might be able to keep this one close until the end.
Pick: ASU +14
No. 12 Arkansas @ Georgia (-2.5)
11 of 20
Six straight losses to Georgia have many people (including Vegas) concerned about how Ryan Mallett and the Arkansas Razorbacks will deal with this year’s challenge in Athens.
On paper, Arkansas definitely appears to be the better team to take the field this weekend.
They have the eighth best quarterback in the nation with at 184.6 QB rating and their defense has looked decent against their early cupcake opponents (allowing only 10 points, collecting five sacks and one interception).
Georgia, however, struggled immensely against South Carolina last week. Its offense looked stagnant, recording only 11 first downs and gaining only 253 yards of offense.
While Arkansas' defense will be a bit easier than the Gamecocks’, Arkansas' offense should be difficult for the Bulldogs to contain. If Mallett can get his team on the scoreboard early and often, home field advantage should not be a factor and the Razorbacks could have a chance to break this lengthy losing streak.
Pick: Arkansas +2.5
No. 14 Utah (-23.5) @ New Mexico
12 of 20
Utah kicked off its Mountain West schedule with a 38-10 whooping of UNLV last weekend and the Utes will look to keep the conference ball rolling against the New Mexico Lobos.
Utah has won three straight against New Mexico, but a 23.5 point spread might be slightly daunting, especially on the road.
Since 2002, the Utes are 1-3 against the spread when playing the Lobos in Albuquerque and this lofty line might be a bit too much for Utah to cover.
Other ATS trends also lean in New Mexico’s way. The Lobos are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games and have only lost to Utah by more than 21 points once over the past 10 matchups.
Pick: New Mexico +23.5
No. 15 LSU (-7) Vs. Mississippi State
13 of 20
Over the past two decades, LSU has flat out owned Mississippi State.
The Tigers have won 17 of the past 18 games against the Bulldogs and most of the games were as ugly as Lady Gaga’s wardrobe.
Since 1992, LSU has not lost to Mississippi State at home and the Tigers have won by at least seven points in every one of those games.
Les Miles appears to have fire lit under his boys this season and the Bulldogs better watch out. This game could get ugly really fast.
Pick: LSU -7
No. 16 Auburn (-6.5) Vs. Clemson
14 of 20
Although Auburn and Clemson rarely do battle, when these Tigers do face off, it tends to be a one way slaughter with Clemson leaving with its tail between their legs.
Dating back to 1952, Clemson has lost 13 straight to Auburn, most recently a 23-20 heartbreaker in 2007.
This trend is highly likely to continue this year, as Auburn’s rushing and passing game seems slightly better than what Clemson is bringing to the field
While Clemson’s quarterback Kyle Parker and its thunder and lightning backfield should make this a game, the dual threat in Auburn’s Cameron Newton will certainly create problems for Clemson’s somewhat inexperienced secondary.
However, if Clemson’s top ranked defensive line can contain Newton from breaking out on uncontrollable runs, Parker and company might be able to take advantage of Auburn’s spotty secondary as well.
Clemson should keep this game close and possibly snap this horrid streak.
Pick: Clemson +6.5
No. 18 USC (-13.5) @ Minnesota
15 of 20
It has been 30 years since the last time Minnesota and USC strapped on the cleats against each other and not much should change in the history of this series when this game is said and done.
Like many teams, the Gophers have greatly struggled against the Trojans in past matchups, posting a miserable 1-4-1 record.
That’s not the only dreary stat starring Minnesota straight into their eyes. Last week, the Gophers stumbled against I-FCS Independent South Dakota, losing 41-38 and marking a depressing low for this volatile program.
While USC has also seen better days, they should be able to find a nice groove against the Gophers this weekend.
The talents of Matt Barkley and Marc Tyler provide the Trojans with a respectable edge over Minnesota, and should allow them to barely cover this two-touchdown spread.
Pick: USC -13.5
No. 19 Stanford (-17) Vs. Wake Forest
16 of 20
The buzz around the Stanford Cardinal continues to gain ground with each turning week, largely due to Andrew Luck and this rapid moving offense.
Luck currently ranks seventh amongst FBS quarterbacks in QB Rating (185.16), but it is Stanford’s defense that has caught many people by surprise. Their defense has allowed an average of 195 yards per game, good enough to rank sixth in the FBS.
However, Wake Forest will be the best offense that the Cardinal has faced this season and they could expose Stanford’s D for what they really are.
Wake Forest is coming off a shootout game with Duke that exemplified the shoddiness of the Demon Deacons defense.
In theory, Luck should be able to pick this secondary apart and lead the Cardinal to a blowout victory. Also, expect Jim Harbaugh to seek out revenge for the last second loss that his Cardinal faced last season in Winston-Salem.
Pick: Stanford -17
No. 21 West Virginia (-11) Vs. Maryland
17 of 20
West Virginia saw its AP Rankings life flash before its eyes last week against Marshall.
The Thundering Herd was four yards short of putting the Mountaineers to bed, but a lucky fumble fell the way of West Virginia, giving them the chance for an unbelievable comeback.
Because of this scare, don’t expect the Mountaineers to take the lowly Maryland Terrapins lightly.
Maryland’s one dimensional, run first offense should play right into the hands of West Virginia’s excellent run stop defense.
A little bit of extra rest and more time to prepare should allow the Mountaineers to learn from last week’s mistakes and fully handle anything the Terrapins might throw their way.
Pick: West Virginia -11
No. 22 Penn State (-21) Vs. Kent State
18 of 20
Penn State’s season experienced a foreseen hiccup last week in Alabama, but they have a nice cupcake game this week to get them right back on track.
While the Nittany Lions should have no problems winning this matchup against Kent State, covering a three touchdown spread might be a little bit out of Penn State’s range.
Over the last seven games in September, Penn State is 0-7 against the spread. Also, they have only covered one of their past seven games where they were favorites by 20 points or more.
Coming off an emotionally and physically tough game might cause Penn State to start this next contest a little slow. And although three touchdowns may not sound like much, it might be a tough assignment for these Lions this week.
Pick: Kent State +21
No. 23 Houston (-3) Vs. UCLA
19 of 20
The probable absence of Houston’s Case Keenum has many wondering how explosive this offense will be without him.
If running back Bryce Beall has a say, they should be just fine.
Beall took the rock 19 times last week again UTEP, accumulating 195 yards and scoring three touchdowns. But if it’s the passing game that still worries you, don’t fret. Backup quarterback Cotton Turner looked quite comfortable in Houston’s offense, completing nine of 10 passes and tossing a touchdown.
UCLA’s offense has been non-existent, but that has been up to par to what most people expected. It is the degrading of their defense that has the Bruins Nation concerned. UCLA has allowed 30 or more points in back-to-back games and desperately needs to find that swagger that its possessed all of last season.
With or without Keenum, Houston has an excellent chance of ousting these shaky Bruins and a three point spread should be easy as pie.
Pick: Houston -3
No. 25 Oregon State (-18.5) Vs. Louisville
20 of 20
In the one ever meeting between Oregon State and Louisville, the Cardinals annihilated the Beavers 63-27.
That was then and this is now.
Louisville’s program is facing an undeniable rebuilding period and the Beavers are looking at contending for a Pac-10 title.
Oregon State has had a week off since its matchup with TCU and the rest should have provided them with enough time to lick their wounds from that loss.
The Beavers have more weapons, a better defense, and an overall more talented team than Louisville. Plus, Oregon State is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a bye week.
That’s good enough for me to lay the points on the Beavers.
Pick: Oregon State -18.5
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