Notre Dame-Michigan Game Is Bellwether for Irish Season

The rivalry game between Notre Dame and Michigan always has a charged atmosphere. Emotions run high in this duel between two of college football's Midwest titans, largely due to the geographic proximity, history, and other factors.

The best rivalries are those in which the outcomes are not lopsided, and in the last 30 years, it's hard to find more even results. Since 1978, Notre Dame and Michigan have played each other 26 times, almost to a draw. The Irish hold a slim 13-12-1 edge, and neither team has ever won more than two consecutive games, with the exception of Notre Dame's four-game winning streak between 1987 and 1990.

One of the more interesting trends in this rivalry is how much more is at stake in this game than just one win or loss. This game has become an early fork in the road for the rest of the season's path, especially for the loser. A win in this game can still produce mixed season results, from a national championship (Notre Dame in 1988 and Michigan in 1997) to a six-loss season (Notre Dame in 2004). A loss, however, portends many other losses to come.

The losing team has finished the season with less than three losses only three times in the last 26 meetings (Michigan in 1980, 1988, 1989). Particularly for Notre Dame, a loss is especially significant. In nine of the 12 seasons when they have lost to Michigan, they have finished the season with five or more losses.

The 2007 season proved even more crippling for Notre Dame as a blowout loss to the Wolverines sent the Irish into a tailspin, finishing the season at 3-9. Michigan fans were beside themselves with glee until the following season when the roles reversed and they met the exact same fate.

Part of this death spiral phenomenon is due to having such an important game so early in the season. Since 1978, the latest game into the season was played on September 27 in 1997, and only seven of the 26 matchups between the Irish and the Wolverines have been played after September 15.

Granted, there are always big games played early in the season, such as today when Miami plays Ohio State and Florida State plays Oklahoma. But this game is different in its regularity. Notre Dame and Michigan don't meet their other established rivals, Southern Cal and Ohio State respectively, until much later in the season. This game is unique because both teams must very quickly brace themselves for a dogfight, and a defeat is an exhausting loss of wind in the sails.

Most years it's very difficult to know what to expect from this game, and this year is no different. The Irish have a new coach in Brian Kelly, and Michigan still has yet to find any consistency under the embattled Rich Rodriguez. The only certainty is that when the game is over, the team on the losing side is in for a long season.