Two Guys, One Mailbox: One Start, and One Sit From Every NFL Week One Game
For some more in-depth start and sits, be sure to check out our most recent article here.
A day removed from the nail-biting season opener, it is now time for Fantasy Fools to prepare their lineups for Sunday and Monday's game's that will set the scene for how your fantasy season might play out.
On the following slides, we will have one "start" and one "sit" for each of the NFL games this weekend.
For most games, we will try to avoid the obvious choices and peel the curtain back on some more high risk, high reward plays.
Follow this step by step guide to each matchup, and hopefully after the final play of the San Diego and Kansas City game, you're already have a leg up on the competition.
Good luck all.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
1 of 16
Travis: A rematch of last season's Week 17 matchup that saw my New York Giants get throttled by Carolina, I expect this matchup to be much different.
Start: Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
I'm big on Nicks this year, and rightfully so. As a rookie last season, he had the second highest YPC in the NFL, behind only Mike Wallace.
I think the Giants wideouts have a big day, but especially Nicks.
A 100-yard game with a TD certainly isn't out of the question for Hakeem The Dream, and warrants a start in most league sizes.
Sit: Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR
The Daily Show is easily the best backup running back in football, and the only reason he is even considered a backup is because of the depth chart. In reality he could easily be called running back "1B" if D-Williams is "1A".
Unfortunately, J-Stew missed most of preseason with a heel injury, and although he looks to get the OK on Sunday, I'm not confident that he will be fully prepared to take some hits, and I also think that the Big Blue defense will do a good job of containing both running backs.
Bonus Football Card Pick: Giants win this one with moderate ease
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
2 of 16
Travis: As a big Sooners fan, I am excited to Sam Bradford's first NFL start, but that certainly doesn't mean he should be deployed this week, let alone even find himself on most fantasy teams, unless very deep.
Start: Tim Hightower, RB, ARI
Hightower debuted at the No. 1 spot on the depth chart following the preseason games, and it means good things for his fantasy owners.
Although Beanie Wells is still expected to get the majority of the carries, Hightower should be able to get 7-12 totes, and will probably add another five or six catches out of the backfield.
As well as some goal line grabs when the Cardinals get close.
Fifty to seventy yards, with a score, and some upside, Hightower could find himself in many starting lineups.
Sit: Laurent Robinson, WR, STL
Robinson started to garner some fantasy looks when his counterpart Donnie Avery went down with a torn ACL in the second preseason game.
What baffles me is, what's the big deal? Donnie Avery wasn't making much noise in fantasy circles, but when he went down, all of a sudden his replacement becomes the next "sleeper"?
Look, maybe Robinson a few weeks into the season will prove his worth, and become a favorite target of Bradford's, but for the first week of the season, there is no way I'm trusting him to carry my team to victory.
Bonus: Cardinals and QB Derek Anderson win by more than 10
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
3 of 16
Travis: Thus, the Pete Carroll era begins.
A lot of analysts this season are pointing to the AFC West as the weakest division in football, but I believe the NFC West takes this crown with ease.
It wouldn't surprise me if every team finished sub-.500, except for the Niners, who I think have the potential to finish with one of the NFC's best records.
Start: Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers
Crabtree has been on the bubble for many fantasy teams this season.
He makes for a great mid-round pick, but many owners are wondering exactly what they can expect from the former Texas Tech stud.
I can't believe people are even asking that. Crabtree misses the entire 2009 preseason and the first six weeks of the season, and still manages over 600 receiving yards.
What's not to like? Had he played a whole season, Crabtree would've ended up with around 900 yards, and 75 receptions.
Many often forget that WR is probably the hardest position to grow accustomed to from the NCAA to the NFL.
The Hawks finised 29th in the league last season against opposing wideouts, and Crabtree could easily find the holes in that defense. Play with confidence.
Sit: Justin Forsett, RB, SEA
With the addition of Leon Washington, and the longing presence of every fantasy players worst nightmare, also known as Julius Jones, I don't like Forsett as much as some others do this season.
Im confident the if they find the red zone, Forsett will most certainly be getting the carries, but to get that close, you also have to buy in to Matt Hasselbeck to a certain extent.
The Niners have a great defense, and I think that the Hawks will remain stagnant in this one. There are plenty of running backs that will do more for your squad than Forsett.
Bonus: Niners win this one, but it might be closer if Hasselbeck can get into a rythym.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
4 of 16
Travis: In what should be one of the most interesting games of week one, the Eagles will get to see what the future holds for Kevin Kolb at the helm, and the Pack attack will see if Aaron Rodgers' amazing preseason will carry over to the regular season
Start: Jermichael Finley, TE, GNB
Many got to witness Finley's breakout on national television when he posted the second most yards of any tight end in the postseason, with a 159-yard performance against the Arizona Cardinals.
Finley is poised to have a monster season, mainly thanks to the work of Rodgers, who looks as good as one could possibly look playing against preseason teams.
The Eagles were horrible against tight ends in 2009, finishing 30th for points against.
Anything less than 14 points for Finley would be disappointing.
Sit: LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI
Explaining why I hate McCoy this week is a simple, four-step program.
1. Kevin Kolb: The Packers defense is full of holes with injuries to Atari Bigby, Al Harris, and a less than healthy Charles Woodson. I think they air it out a ton.
2. First Time: LeSean McCoy himself scares me. I don't think he has the season that everyone is assuming he will. McCoy will need to prove something to fantasy owners before he warrants an automatic start.
3. Green Bay's Run Defense: Although many are saying that Green Bay could play in Dallas in February if their defense can step up, fantasy wise, we don't have that much of an issue.
Green Bay finished with the fourth-best defense against fantasy running backs, and I don't see a reason why that should end, especially against an inexperienced back.
4. Mike Bell: Assuming the Eagles get to the red zone as often as they'd like to, McCoy owners should be cautious of Mike Bell.
Pierre Thomas owners know far too much of the pain that Bell can bring as a touchdown vulture.
Bonus: Packers, and it ain't even close
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
5 of 16
Travis: A game that both squads usually get up for, and one of the biggest rivalry games in the league, and most importantly, probably the biggest decision of your entire life.
Would you rather watch Romo and McNabb square off, or Justin Bieber perform at the Video Music Awards?
I know. Not much of a decision.
Start: Santana Moss, WR, WAS
I know what you're thinking.
The last time Santana Moss had fantasy relevancy, Plaxico Burress wasn't wearing pinstripes, and Tom Brady only had one kid with one woman (Zing).
All jokes aside, I really do think that Santana Moss could be a sleeper play this week at the flex position.
In the nine games that Moss has suited up against Dallas, he averages six catches per game, with 93 yards, and a total of four touchdowns.
It must also be noted that Donovan McNabb certainly wasn't the QB for those games, and thats probably a good thing for Moss, as it leaves a lot more room for upside on Sunday night.
Sit: Dez Bryant, WR, DAL
Although Bryant will most likely be a top fantasy wide receiver for many years to come, I don't think that he will have much of an impact, regardless of league size.
Bryant missed much of the preseason with a high ankle sprain, and didn't see action in any preseason game.
Bryant is someone who is hard to judge in Week 1, because his health is questionable, his teams direction is questionable (run first? pass first?), and most of all, how many targets are there to go around to begin with.
Before season's end, Bryant will have his due, but don't count on it in week one.
Bonus: Cowboys in a close one
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets
6 of 16
Travis: This game is essentially every fantasy players worst nightmare.
You have two top ten defenses in the NFL, squaring off on the first Monday Night Football game of the year, in a brand new stadium.
In a "Two Guys, One Mailbox" first, I will give unprecedented advice.
Start: Baltimore Ravens, and New York Jets Defense
I think both defenses will excel in this one, much to the chagrin of the offensive players.
The Ravens will be led by Ray Lewis, and the monster defensive line, while the Jets are led by Bart Scott, Darelle Revis, and Antonio Cromartie.
Both units should perform well, with each coming away with multiple turnovers.
Sit: Everyone Else (Nope, I'm not kidding)
I've played over every single offensive starter and there really isn't anyone who I could honestly throw my heart into starting.
Obviously either quarterback is a very risky play. The running backs aren't too hot either, although I wouldn't mind starting Ray Rice, because he really has that big play capability.
Braylon Edwards could surprise some people, but again, don't waste a play on him.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots
7 of 16
Aaron
Start: Wes Welker, WR, NE
Normally this would be a no-brainer, but after tearing his ACL at the end of the season last year, many people expected that Welker wouldn’t return to the gridiron until at least Week 10 of this season.
Much to everyone’s surprise, Welker is back and ready to play opening day.
Those who have reservations because of his knee shouldn’t worry; he looked good in preseason and should be right back near full capacity come Sunday.
Sit: Terrell Owens, WR, CIN
Sit T.O. this week in Foxboro. First off, Terrell Owens tends to play poorly when he faces New England, averaging only 48.3 yards a game in 4 games.
Plus, for the first time in a long time, Owens won’t be the go-to receiver for his team (that honor obviously falls in Ocho’s lap).
So if you have questions about Owens, don’t play him.
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans
8 of 16
Aaron
Start: Louis Murphy, WR, OAK
When Chaz Schillins got injured this preseason, many fantasy owners paused and thought “now who will be my backup wide receiver’s backup.”
Well look no further than Schillins’ own replacement. And with Cortland Finnegan covering Zach Miller, look for Jason Campbell to try to find Murphy.
If you’re in a 10-12 man league, look for Murphy to give you some decent production for cheap.
Sit: Darren McFadden, RB, OAK
Because he sucks.
Maybe he proves me wrong this season and breaks out like many people expected after he was drafted fourth pick, but I wouldn’t count on it.
He’s only surpassed 50 rushing yards in a game three times in his career.
I realize Bush is injured, but if McFadden’ 3.4 yards per carry last season are any indication; he should be either a free agent or riding the bench in your fantasy league.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
9 of 16
Aaron
Start: Arian Foster, RB, HOU
When Ben Tate went down this preseason with a season-ending injury, Foster’s value increased substantially.
Foster looked very impressive at the end of last season attaining over 200 yards in less than 40 carries over the course of the final two games.
Foster will be the premiere back for the Texans, but if he starts to falter, expect Slaton to garner more carries.
Sit: Joseph Addai, RB, IND
Joseph Addai is a solid running back, and is a good back to have on your bench or possibly flex spot. In no way should Addai be one of your elite running backs.
The problem with Addai is that you need him to score a touchdown for him to be of any value for your fantasy team, he doesn’t garner enough yards to make it worth starting if he doesn’t find the end zone.
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars
10 of 16
Aaron
Start: Kyle Orton, QB, DEN
Ok, so he lost his No. 1 target in Brandon Marshall, but they did draft Demaryius Thomas, and Jabar Gaffney is highly underrated.
Orton still has a decent set of weapons at his disposal, and is facing the 29th-ranked pass defense from last season.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the underrated Orton have the best week for any fantasy QB in the league.
Sit: Mike Sims-Walker, WR, JAX
Many people jumped on the Sims-Walker bandwagon last season after Week 2 when he had 106 yards and a RD, and they weren’t disappointed when he finished the season with 7 touchdowns and close to 900 yards in 15 games played.
Some of the knocks on MSW is that he’s the best wide receiver on the Jaguars, his quarter back is David Garrard and is facing the Broncos who have one of the best pass defenses in the league and one of the best corners in Champ Bailey. Don’t expect a big game by Sims-Walker.
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11 of 16
Aaron
Start: Jerome Harrison, RB, CLE
When he was given the ball last season, he was very impressive. He actually garnered over 400 yards in the last three games of the season with a ludicrous 106 carries.
Harrison owners rejoiced when Montario Hardesty went down for the season with an ACL injury, because now Harrison will get almost all of the carries for the Browns.
Expect big numbers from Hardesty and don’t be afraid to play him like you would an elite back.
Sit: Kareem Huggins, RB, TAM
I really like Huggins for fantasy this season, mostly because I expect Cadillac Williams to get injured at some point.
Until that happens, Huggins has as much value as Derrick Ward did before he was cut, so none.
He may have an impact later on, but definitely shouldn't be trusted to shoulder the weight of your team in the very first contest.
Keep him stashed away until Caddy gets injured, but until then he shouldn’t be starting in any league.
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
12 of 16
Aaron
Start: Mike Wallace, WR, PITT
If anyone read Travis' and my first article, they know I love Mike Wallace and that I expect him to break out much like DeSean Jackson last season.
Yes, Dennis Dixon is the starting quarterback for the Steelers for the first 4 games of the season, but you should still expect him to try to find Wallace deep on a few plays, expect him to have close to 4-5 catches, but 85-100 yards and a touchdown.
I recommend starting him even in eight-man leagues (I know I am).
Sit: Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
Ryan disappointed many owners last season who expected a breakout season who drafted him pretty high based on his great rookie season.
Ryan is probably the starter for some teams in 10-12 man leagues, and I recommend that those owners try to pick up a different starter for Week 1.
I might even recommend Dennis Dixon from this game over him (for this week).
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
13 of 16
Aaron
Start: C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF
He won the starting role over the injured Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch.
Lynch doesn’t appear to fit into any role on the offense right now unless there is an injury and Fred Jackson is nursing a broken hand.
C.J. won the starting job and will get the majority of the carries for the Bills. Expect him to get around 80 yards and a touchdown in his NFL debut.
Sit: Rickie Williams/Ronnie Brown: RBs, MIA
Owning half of a running back by committee duo is always risky for fantasy owners, it’s often to hit or miss.
Seeing as both are going to be getting equal playing time, don’t expect either of these players to have a big game, if you have other options play them and save these running backs for your bye weeks.
Although one of them may break out, its never fun trying to predict which one. Play it safe for Week 1 until one of them proves the better back.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
14 of 16
Aaron
Start: Matt Forte, RB, CHI
Forte was easily the most disappointing player in the NFL last season.
He only had over 100 yards in a game two times; both of those games came against Detroit.
Forte has talent, there isn’t any denying it, but it only helps that he’s facing one of the worst defenses in the league. Expect him to surpass 100 yards week one.
Sit: Matt Stafford, QB, DET
I think Stafford will end up being very good, but he’s currently still in the transition process.
Stash him away on your bench as your backup quarterback for now, but he doesn’t deserve to be starting in any leagues at the moment, unless you are in a two-quarterback league.
Detroit had done a good job surrounding him with offensive talent (Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, and Jahvid Best) and Staff could very well come into his own this season.
Just don’t count on it for Week 1.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
15 of 16
Travis: The final game of the season will definitely have fantasy implifications for many team, including those who rely on the play of Philip Rivers, or the running abilities of Jamaal Charles and Ryan Mathews
Start: Malcom Floyd, WR, SD
I have an absolutely enormous man-crush on Floyd this season.
He is essentially the same person as Vincent Jackson. Literally. Dont believe me?
A: 6' 5'' 230 Lbs
B: 6' 4'' 225 Lbs
Doesn't really matter who is who when you look at it that way. Now, obviously V-Jax was a major part of the offense, and more talented than Floyd, but I'm not worried about playing him against Kansas City this week, because of his big-play capability.
Look for Floyd to go over 100 with a score or two.
Sit: Dexter McCluster, RB/WR, KAN
Hm. Definitely a threatening player at the collegiate level, McCluster looks to make an impact for Kansas City, mainly playing out of the wideout position.
What I don't feel confident in, is McCluster's role in the offense right now.
Don't get me wrong, DMC could easily make me look foolish by busting off a 75 yard TD, or a special teams play, but I'm certainly not going to rely on it in Week 1.
Go Forth, Fantasy Fiends!
16 of 16
I can hardly contain myself.
There is no greater feeling than watching your fantasy team perform on Sundays, and if anything, I hope that this start 'em and sit 'em guide will at least point your team in the right direction.
And remember, a loss is never good, but having it in the first week of the season isn't terrible, just hit the waiver wire if somethings available and be ready to bounce back in Week 2.
Bonus: Johnny Knox is my "Play of the Week". I think he could absolutely torch the Lions defense to the tune of 150 and a score, or maybe even two.
Good luck, Fools.
If YOU have any questions that deserve some attention, please email tmoney108@yahoo.com, and they will be answered in the following email.
Travis Rand is a Communications Major at the University of Southern Maine, and an enormous NYG and Oklahoma Sooners fan.
He also thinks that you should throw your hat in the ring for Ryan Broyles Heisman Canidancy. For this to happen, Denard Robinson would of course have to...Ya know, break his leg or something.
His archive can be found here.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
