UCLA Bruins Vs. Stanford Cardinal: What to Watch for in Pac-10 Opener
After returning home from a disappointing 31-22 loss to the Kansas State Wildcats in Manhattan, Kansas, UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel didn't waste any time restoring his characteristic optimism.
He spoke of "correctable" issues that shone through the game tape and having "a great chance to build on this."
Adding a sizable helping of caution to his optimism, Neuheisel commented on what lay ahead, "I'm encouraged. We have things to fix and fix fast, given the nature of our opponent this week, but I'm encouraged."
That opponent just so happens to be the Stanford Cardinal, a team picked by some to win the Pac-10 this season. 'Furd head coach Jim Harbaugh will lead his squad into Pasadena for the conference opener against the Bruins this Saturday at the Rose Bowl, where he hopes to return with his Cardinal in January.
Disappointment about the past and trepidation about the future aside, let's see how these two teams will match up come Saturday night.
Offense
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Anyone who watched UCLA's loss this past weekend knows what the Bruins offense has to work on for this weekend's game.
The receivers and backs—Taylor Embree, Morrell Presley, and Ricky Marvray in particular—HAVE to catch the ball after accounting for drop after frustrating, debilitating drop against K-State.
Granted, quarterback Kevin Prince wasn't particularly sharp after missing three weeks of fall practice. Though his 9-for-26, 120-yard, two-interception performance doesn't on its own account for the seven or eight dropped passes by his receivers, Prince was far from pinpoint accurate on Saturday—overthrowing, underthrowing, and throwing behind his targets on a number of occasions.
If UCLA is going to keep up with Stanford offensively, it will fall to Prince to be a more accurate passer and to the wide receivers, tight ends, and backs to be more reliable recipients.
Speaking of Stanford's offense, Coach Harbaugh and Co. will be sporting something of a different look than the one the Bruins saw in defeat, 24-16, last year.
With Heisman candidate and the nation's leading rusher Toby Gerhart gone to the NFL, the Cardinal will rely more heavily on sophomore quarterback and pro prospect Andrew Luck to carry the load on offense.
Luck certainly got off to a good start without Gerhart, throwing for 316 yards (301 in the first half) and a career-high four touchdowns against Sacramento State during college football's opening weekend.
For now, Luck will be joined in the backfield by a committee of ball carriers, including Stepfan Taylor (Stanford's No. 2 rusher last season), Tyler Gaffney, Usua Amanam, and Anthony Wilkerson, among others.
Perhaps the Card's greatest strength is along the offensive line, with four starters returning to provide a pocket for Luck and running lanes for the stable of backs.
If Prince and his mates on offense, including an offensive line that performed better than expected against K-State, have any hope of outgunning Stanford, they'll need more good fortune and less Luck.
EDGE: Stanford
Defense
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If UCLA is going to limit Luck, it will have to rely on a defensive front seven that played like Jekyll and Hyde in the opener.
On the one hand, All-American linebacker Akeem Ayers was all over the field, racking up tackles, passes defensed, and fumbles recovered while his friends up front accounted for six sacks.
On the other hand, the Bruins gave up 313 yards rushing, including a whopping 234 yards and two touchdowns to Daniel Thomas, the Big 12's leading rusher last year.
Fortunately, the Bruins' defensive front won't have to deal with Toby Gerhart this time around, but they'll still have to contend with whoever carries the ball behind Stanford's experienced O-line, which allowed a mere seven sacks during the 2009 season.
Assuming UCLA can take care of Stanford's running game, the secondary, led by safety Rahim Moore, should be able to limit Luck and the Cardinal's aerial attack. The Bruins' defensive backfield surrendered only 64 yards to K-State's QB's and receivers and bought a weak front seven enough time to put pressure on the 'Cats' passing game.
Even so, if defense is a concern for UCLA, it's cause for alarm for Stanford. Limiting Sacramento State to 17 points is hardly an indicator of improvement for a unit that ranked 90th nationally in overall defense last season.
To help shore up its biggest weakness, the Cardinal brought in defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who boasts 24 years of coaching experience in the NFL.
The success of Fangio's 3-4 scheme will depend on the performance of outside 'backers Thomas Keiser and Case Baker, along with Sione Fua up front and defensive backs Richard Sherman and Delano Howell.
While Norm Chow's offense is certainly no juggernaut, it will provide Fangio and his players with a solid, early season test.
EDGE: UCLA
Special Teams
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It's difficult to argue against UCLA's special teams unit, led by defending Lou Groza Award winner Kai Forbath at kicker and Ray Guy finalist Jeff Locke handling the punting duties.
Forbath has nailed his last 40 field goals within 50 yards, and Locke regularly nets well over 45 yards on his punts.
Not that Stanford's specialists are to be disregarded. Senior kicker Nate Whitaker is 17-for-24 on field goals in his career, and junior punter Daniel Zychlinski, in limited action, has averaged better than 40 yards per punt.
Neither team has yet established a particularly dangerous return game, at least this season. The Bruins will look to Colorado transfer Josh Smith on kickoffs and Taylor Embree on punts, while the Cardinal will focus its return efforts in the person of Chris Owusu, an explosive return man who sat out 'Furd's opener due to injury. Should Owusu return on Saturday to the form he displayed last season, he could tip the special teams scales Stanford's way.
But, for now...
EDGE: UCLA
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Coaching
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The coaching matchup here is a difficult one to call.
Now in his fourth year on The Farm, Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh guided the Cardinal to its first bowl game in eight years last December, falling 31-27 to the Oklahoma Sooners.
Known for his brash persona and boundless energy, Harbaugh has, by all accounts, done a magnificent job lifting Stanford out of its post-Ty Willingham quagmire and back into Pac-10 title contention.
Meanwhile, Rick Neuheisel is looking to rebuild what was once a proud program at UCLA in much the same fashion Harbaugh has up north. In his third year at the helm, Neuheisel, along with Hall of Fame coordinator Norm Chow, is expected to help his alma mater take the next step into the top half of the Pac-10, following the ups and downs of the Karl Dorrell debacle.
While Neuheisel and Chow would (and should) have the edge on paper, Harbaugh has already put it together on the field.
EDGE: Stanford
X-Factors
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In terms of game changers, UCLA will look to Akeem Ayers and Rahim Moore to come up with big plays on defense and Josh Smith to give the Bruins offense great starting field position on returns.
Smith may also prove to be an X-factor for the offense with his breakaway speed and lateral quickness should Norm Chow utilize him either as a receiver or as a ball carrier on trick plays.
Stanford will rely on Chris Owusu to provide fireworks on offense and special teams. After missing the game against Sac State, Owusu should be ready to go this Saturday, which should put a scare into the Bruins' secondary and special teams coverage.
Overall, UCLA sports a deeper group of athletic playmakers than Stanford does, which bodes well for the Bruins.
EDGE: UCLA
Intangibles
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With a 24-16 defeat to Stanford last season and the opening week loss on the mind, UCLA should have no trouble finding motivation for this Saturday's contest. The Bruins will need to come up big in their home opener if 2010 is going to be a year of improvement rather than stagnation.
Stanford, on the other hand, has a legitimate shot at returning to Pasadena in January for the Granddaddy of Them All, so the conference opener will be even more crucial for Jim Harbaugh's boys if they're going to meet or surpass their expectations for the season.
Ultimately, Stanford knows how to win, while UCLA is still learning.
The teams are pretty evenly matched, and UCLA will have an excellent chance to win, especially if the receivers hang on to the ball and defensive coordinator Chuck Bullough improves the rotation up front to give his guys more rest.
That being said, expect Stanford to come out on top, if only by a hair, 31-28.
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