LSU and 10 Other Teams We Know Aren't Winning Their Conference

Finally, we have our first weekend of college football in the books.

From Thursday's opening games through the season's first Saturday to Monday night's thriller, college football came to life once again for thousands of players and millions of fans.

While the first week of the new season didn't answer questions such as "Who will win the BCS title?" or "Who is the most underrated team?" or even "Who is going to win the Big Ten or SEC or Pac-10?", it did provide us with answers to a few questions.

While we may not know who will win the SEC, Big East, or ACC, we can make a pretty reasonable guess as to who won't win those conferences.

SEC: Lousiana State

Since the title gave away this pick, we'll put them up front.

While it's true that North Carolina is reported to be a good team this year with a stellar defense, the fact that 15 players in all did not play for UNC should have made them a pretty easy target.

Sure, LSU won.

But LSU should have won by a lot more, and UNC isn't exactly on the same level as the cream of the crop in the SEC, especially when 15 players aren't dressing.

LSU also gave up 259 passing yards in the fourth quarter alone.  Compare that to LSU's total second half offense of 55 yards and it's easy to see there is room for concern.

Let's face it, LSU was playing against a team of second- and third-string players comprised of redshirts and walk-ons.  LSU should have won this game by a heck of a lot more than six points.

There is some room for hope, however.  Tiger fans can take heart with LSU's amazing rush defense.  The first half was solid as well.  But the defense won't be able to carry the Tigers through games against the best of the best in the SEC.

C-USA: Southern Mississippi

Conference USA is notoriously difficult to predict based on non-conference games.

A good number of top-tier teams in the FBS have C-USA teams on their schedule as "filler" games.  Top level teams in BCS conferences rarely lose to C-USA teams, and will hold true again in 2010.

Southern Mississippi, however, is one of the few C-USA teams from which we can expect surprises from time to time.  Their Week 1 game against South Carolina provided the Golden Eagles with another opportunity to prove that the C-USA can compete with teams from the BCS conferences, even if it is a middle-of-the-road team from such a conference (sorry, South Carolina fans, but reality can sometimes hurt).

Not only did the Eagles lose, they lost big.

South Carolina had no trouble running around, over and through Southern Mississippi and cruised to a 41-13 win.

USM has put together a string of a few 7-6 seasons.  If the Eagles don't improve from what we saw this weekend, 7-6 might be looked on as "the good old days."

MAC: Western Michigan

The Broncos traveled to East Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday and walked away with a loss and a number of unanswered questions.

The Spartans easily dispatched the Broncos 38-14 on Saturday.  The Broncos were never much of a threat on offense, and MSU didn't seem to be overly concerned with WMU's play-making ability.  WMU's longest play of the day amounted to only 28 yards.  In fact, they only accomplished a play of 20 or more yards three times in the entire game.

WMU also gave up nearly 300 yards on the ground.  I don't care who you are or who you are playing, that's a lot of yardage to give up on the ground.

Plus, MAC contender Central Michigan was able to pull out a win in East Lansing in 2009.  Western didn't even come close.

A bright spot for WMU is that Alex Carder, the replacement for one of the greatest quarterbacks to put on the brown and gold (Tim Hiller), seems to be up to the task of leading the Bronco offense.  As he matures, I think he will improve, and the rest of the offense will follow.

But perhaps the best thing to come out of Saturday for the Broncos: A big fat check for $700,000.

WAC: Hawai'i

A few things should be mentioned right off the bat.

First, I like Hawai'i.  I really do.  I think they're a good program with the potential to be the next big thing in the non-BCS world.

The second thing will be made evident shortly.

Hawai'i went into its matchup against Southern California with perhaps the best chance to beat the Trojans than any non-BCS conference team has had, or is likely to have, for quite a while.

The Trojans are coming off of a semi-disastrous offseason.  The Trojans have been sanctioned by the NCAA.  The Trojans are, for the most part, unproven.  The Trojans have a new coach.  The Trojans were on the road to open the season.

Given those set of circumstances, the Trojans seemed ripe for a loss.

No such luck.

Even with the plethora of bad news surrounding USC, it's still USC.  And they were still playing a team from the WAC.

But getting back to that second thing that I said would be made evident...

Hawai'i played a pretty decent game, scoring 36 against USC.  Hawai'i showed off some of its depth as well as subs were common in an attempt to keep up with, and eventually tire out, USC.  As it turns out, USC didn't really ever tire out.  But Hawai'i still made a valiant effort.

So what is that second thing?  Hawai'i is good, but there's someone much better in the WAC.

Not being able to hang with the big boys tells me that the Warriors are not ready to be considered the best team in the WAC, at least not until the Broncos move over to the Mountain West Conference next year.

Sun Belt: Troy

The Sun Belt Conference is another conference, like C-USA, that is really hard to predict based on one game.

But there was one Sun Belt score from the weekend that stood out to those who keep an eye on the "lesser" conferences.

Troy over Bowling Green State 30-27.

BGSU from the MAC is a team that doesn't really do much else besides play a game on Saturday.  Sometimes they win, sometimes they lose, but they rarely, if ever, impress anyone.

Just a few of BGSU's losses from 2009 were against Marshall, Ohio (not State) and Idaho.  Not exactly the stuff of which dreams are made.

Troy hopes to improve on last year's 9-4 mark (their best record since 2000's 10-2 season).  An unimpressive win against BGSU isn't exactly inspiring me to believe they can do it.  Further down the road in 2010, the Trojans will face South Carolina, but in Week 2 they face Oklahoma State from the Big 12.

If Troy can't recover and at least put in an impressive game against the Cowboys, I fear the wheels may come loose (if not completely off) for the Trojans as confidence will take a swift kick in the chariot hitch.

Mountain West: Wyoming

I know picking a team like Wyoming to not win a conference that includes Utah, TCU and BYU is a pretty safe bet and won't shock anybody, but I have my reasons.

First, Wyoming's Week 1 opponent was Southern Utah from the FCS's Great West Conference  The GWC consists of only five teams (meaning the NCAA doesn't even recognize their conference champion when it comes time for playoff bids) and is comprised mostly of schools who recently joined the FCS from Division II.

That should equal a big win for Wyoming, right?

You'd think so, but Wyoming only managed a 28-20 win over the Thunderbirds.

That kind of performance doesn't lead me to believe there will be any improvement over 2009's 7-6 record.  In fact, I'd bet even money that the Cowboys' record will fare a bit worse than last season.

Big East: Cincinnati

Anybody who knows me or reads my columns can tell you that I'm a Brian Kelly fan.  I've been a BK fan for longer than most college football fans knew his name.  His explosive offensive style was known to me long before it caught the eye of Cincinnati or Notre Dame.

I began watching Brian Kelly-coached teams when he was the head coach at Division II powerhouse Grand Valley State.  I watched his teams score 60 or more points nearly every week against quality opponents deep into the playoffs.

When he moved to Central Michigan, he turned that program into a perennial MAC contender.

He did even bigger things at Cincinnati, where he made them the best football program in the state of Ohio, at least for a brief time.

That time, like the Brian Kelly era at Cincy, is over.

The Bearcats entered 2010 looking to shed the shadow of Brian Kelly.  But the bright sunshine of the Kelly-less Bearcats was met with a stormy cloud in the form of the Fresno State Bulldogs.

Fresno State handed the Bearcats their first regular season loss since Connecticut topped Cincinnati in 2008.

While I fully expect Cincinnati under Butch Jones to recover for Week 2 in time for a ridiculous matchup against the Fighting Sycamores of Indiana State (an FCS team that was 1-10 in 2009), the last four games on Cincy's schedule will most likely prove to be too much for Jones' Bearcats: WVU, Rutgers, Connecticut and Pittsburgh.

Butch Jones followed Kelly at CMU and now follows him at Cincy (so all you Cincy fans out there shouldn't complain too much about Notre Dame "stealing" Kelly; Cincy has done it twice to CMU).  But unlike CMU, Cincinnati plays on a BCS stage.  The stakes are much higher and there's no room for error.

Losing to Fresno State was an error that teams hoping to win a BCS conference championship cannot make.

ACC: North Carolina

The Tar Heels were touted by many, myself included, as a true contender in 2010.

Their defense was pretty darned good in 2009, and it was looking to be even better in 2010.  In fact, many believed that there would be few teams that could challenge UNC for the top performing defense in the nation.

Then all hell broke loose at UNC.

In fact, the situation became so bad that UNC is working with the NCAA to institute "rolling suspensions" for their players, otherwise UNC would barely be able to field a team, much less win games against the ACC contenders.

While neither UNC nor the NCAA is talking specifics, it's clear that the violations involve a good portion of the team and were major violations of team rules, to say nothing of NCAA policies.

While UNC escaped humiliation against LSU, that was probably due more to the fact that LSU had about as bad of a game as a team can have while still winning.

If the situation in Chapel Hill isn't resolved soon, things are only going to get worse for the Heels.  As it stands, things probably won't get much better.

It's really a shame, too, because there were many people around the nation—including me—that were looking forward to watching them this year.  What's worse: 2010 could have very well been UNC's "springboard season" into annual ACC contention.

Big Ten: Michigan

To the surprise of many, if not most, Michigan beat Connecticut on Saturday.  The Huskies were favored by pretty much everyone, but the Wolverines ran off with a 30-10 victory behind the stellar play of Denard Robinson.

Denard "Shoelace" Robinson (so named because he doesn't tie his shoes) rushed for a UM quarterback record of 197 yards.  He added another 186 through the air.  Pretty good numbers, especially considering the typical Michigan quarterback is a giant stone statue in the pocket.

The real winner in this game was Rich Rodriguez.  Love him or hate him, everyone can agree that he's firmly on the hot seat this year.  Michigan needs a good showing in 2010 if Rich Rod hopes to keep his job in Ann Arbor.

While Michigan's win can probably be called an upset, it did highlight a few things about both UM and UConn.

First, UConn laid a big fat egg.  Only scoring 10 pints while giving up 30 is never good, but it's even more embarrassing considering how Michigan's defense looked at times on Saturday.  Unfortunately for the Huskies, though, they could not capitalize on their many chances.

Late in the third quarter, UConn had a chance to pull within seven, but fumbled on the Michigan 3-yard line.

While UConn is an experienced team that many believe will contend for the Big East title this year, Michigan has to face a crop of pretty darn good teams in the Big Ten.

While I do think Michigan will continue to improve over 2009, and I believe that Rich Rod will take the Wolverines to a bowl game and keep his job (at least one more year), I don't believe that UM has the talent, depth and experience to hang with the cream of the crop in the Big Ten this season.

A loss to Notre Dame could even start rumblings of panic once again in Ann Arbor.

Pac-10: Southern California

USC fans are notoriously loyal and SEC-like in their blind love for their team.  Picking USC to not win the Pac-10 is like sticking your hand inside a hornets' nest and shaking it around, but this season it really comes down to a simple fact: There's too much going on in Trojan land to believe that USC will dominate the conference in 2010.

Oregon is the early favorite in the Pac-10 this season, and their Week 1 thrashing of New Mexico 72-0 isn't going to sway anyone from favoring the Ducks.

Before the USC faithful begin foaming at the mouth, let me say this: USC will probably surprise a few people this year with their final record.  It just won't include a Pac-10 title.

USC lost a few promising players to transfer.  USC lost their coach when he abandoned his sinking ship (or at least a ship badly listing).  USC's new head coach is unproven.  USC has been slapped with some pretty tough sanctions by the NCAA.

But while all of that works against USC this season, there is one thing that I believe will work in their favor:  USC will have a massive chip on their shoulder this season.  They have something to prove.  They will want to finish as high in the BCS poll as possible, even though it can't lead to anything but watching bowl games from home.

Basically, USC wants to thumb their nose at the NCAA for what they view as unnecessarily harsh penalties.

While I don't disagree with the NCAA's decisions (given the fact that USC attempted to stonewall the NCAA at every turn, refused to cooperate and most, if not all, of the violations occurred with the full knowledge of the head coach and athletic director), I think the end result will be positive for USC.

When USC comes off of probation in a couple of years, I wouldn't want to be in their way.

Big 12: Oklahoma

With all due respect to Utah State and fans of the Aggies, USU is just a bad football team.  Heck, even DeMarco Murray knew that after his amazing 218 yard night.  "No disrespect to Utah State, but they never should have been that close to us," he said after the game.

He's right.

It is absolutely inexcusable for the Sooners to win this game by seven points.

Absolutely inexcusable.

OU's offense spent the game sputtering down the field, punctuated by a few big plays that proved decisive.  The defense didn't help matters by allowing the Aggies a few big plays of their own.  That, combined with senseless penalties and some really shoddy attempts at arm tackles and over pursuits, allowed the Aggies to stay in the game until an OU interception with about four minutes left in the fourth quarter sealed the win.

What strikes me about this game is that OU was up, and up big, pretty early on.  I'll bet most casual observers probably changed the channel to a more competitive game after the Sooners went up 21-0.  Utah State, however, didn't flinch, scoring 17 straight points to close within four.

If Oklahoma has any hope at playing in the Big 12 championship game this season, the Sooners are going to have to mature quickly.

Mistakes and lack of execution may still allow you to slide past teams like Utah State.

They won't against teams like Texas.