Two Guys, One Mailbox: Week One Starts, Popular Sleepers, and Projections

The introductory article to a series to be published each and every week. My best friend and I strive to help each and every person coming to us with a fantasy conundrum. Email us at [e-mail], and rest easy KNOWING that your question WILL get answered.

Each new fantasy football season brings popular questions.

Who are the best sleepers?

Who should I start at my flex this week?

The problem lies with who to trust. There are so many rankings list put out to popular websites every week, but most of the time they fail to listen to the people who give them a job, their readers.

Neither of us may not be the next Matthew Berry, or Eric Karabell, but Aaron Hamilton and myself will do everything in our power to hear, and answer any question that you may have.

Without further adieu, lets jump into our very first mailbag.

"Who would you guys say are the breakout players this year? The so-called, Sleepers?" -Magglio, Kentucky

Travis: Let me start by saying you're right on point. They ARE "so-called".

In toda'ys internet and communcation age, there isn't such thing as a sleeper anymore. Most people all like to spit out the same names until they're blue in the face, and its often a challenge to find any really deep sleepers nowadays.

With that said, ill focus more on the "breakout" part of your question. I'm a huge fan of Mike Williams from Seattle this season. Yes, THAT Mike Williams. He was originally drafted by the Lions in '05, and after bouncing around, has finally settled in Seattle with former college coach, Pete Carrol.

Although hes not worth a high end pick, you could probably get Williams with your last pick in the draft. And if the Hawks are willing to outright cut TJ Housh, they must have faith in Williams.

Another player I really like is Malcom Floyd. Although you might have to reach for him a little bit, I think he is completely worth it, and I would have no problem starting him in a league even as small as eight teams. I think Rivers will be looking for him early and often, and on draft day, so should you.

Aaron:

WR Mike Wallace: Wallace is one of the faster players in the lease, and at 5’11” 199 lbs. he’s basically a buffer DeSean Jackson. Wallace will be the number two receiver in Pittsburgh this season, with Holmes going to New York, and someone is going to have to be Big Ben’s target down field.

My only knock on Wallace is, he’s not a great route runner, so he may not be your best option in a PPR league. He will have games where he only gets one or two receptions for 3-50 yards. Make sure you draft him as a backup wide receiver, or a #2 or #3 receiver in deep leagues.

RB Kareem Huggins: The undrafted rookie out of Hofstra has been one of the surprises of the preseason. He enters the season in a very favorable position. Derrick Ward was recently released by the Buccaneers making Huggins the backup to injury prone Cadillac Williams.

Try to snag Huggins late in drafts to stash away on the bench, or if you’re league has already drafted, there’s a good chance he’s still available on the waiver wire (20.8 own % in ESPN leagues). If anything should happen to Williams, expect Huggins to receive the bulk of the carries.

QB Derek Anderson: Anderson won the QB battle with Matt Leinart (who was also released by the Cardinals earlier today). Anderson enters a good situation, last year the Cardinals threw the ball over 60% of the time, and with targets like Fitzgerald, Breaston, Doucet, and even Hightower, there is a good chance Anderson has a decent season. Don’t expect another 29 TD season, but he could easily become fantasy relevant as a starter in two quarterback leagues and as a backup in most others.

"I have to start 1 RB, 2 WR's, and 1 RB/WR/TE "flex" position. I've got Frank Gore locked in at RB, Colston and Roddy White at WR, but I need help with my flex. Who should I start from the following list as my flex player: Hakeem Nicks, Chris Chambers, Roy Williams, Johnny Knox, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs, Jerome Harrison or Leon Washington?" - Josh, Bakersfield, CA

Travis: Although I don't know your league size, I would say you already have an advantage with Roddy White, Colston, and Gore. I think Gore does BIG things this year, and returns to MVP-esque form.

Lets start by process of elimination. I think Bradshaw is a better runner than Jacobs, and definitely gives you the chance at more yards.

Jerome Harrison will do more for his offense than Washington, because Justin Forsett is more talented than people give him credit for. Nicks and Knox are high on my list, and far superior to Chambers, and Roy "I find it funny the Cowboys gave up so much for him" Williams.

That leaves us with Bradshaw, Nicks, Harrison, and Knox.

This is where I usually like to go to the match-ups in order to break a close tie.

The runningbacks are both in favorable situations, facing the Panthers and Buccaneers, the 24th and 26th teams respectively in fantasy points against for opposing runningbacks.

I think that with Bradshaw technically still a backup, although one of the better in the league, and Harrison having a terrible preseason, I would much rather run with one of the wide-outs.

The Panthers were much better against the pass, second in the league, while the Lions, Knox's first opponent, was a dismal 30th. I think Mike Martz will go the air often (Shocker? Nope.) and I believe that Knox is his main man.

Aaron: Without a doubt, at this point I think it’s Jerome Harrison.

The only player holding him back from being a potential star this season was rookie Montario Hardesty, luckily for Harrison owners, Hardesty tore his ACL and will not be taking Harrison’s goal line carries this season.

For bye weeks try to play Nicks and Bradshaw.

Pretty generic question, but there's been a lot of talk as to whether CJ or Peterson is the #1 fantasy back in the league (or possibly even MJD). Can you give your thoughts on who you think is, and why? - Alexs, Sacremento, CA

Travis: One of my favorite questions to answer. I should preface this by letting everyone know that I am a diehard Sooners fan, and my father is a devoted Purple follower, so I tend to be a tad bias.

I'm going to stick with CJ2K and Purple Jesus, even though the Bowling Ball is a fantastic runningback, I don't think he is on the same tier as the others.

I feel like with these two guys, you're almost playing the lottery, and its all about the numbers you like to play. Are you a Megabucks player? Or maybe you like to spend the extra money and go with the Powerball?

Neither of these two athletes will hurt your team at all, and both serve as fantastic first choices, and this year, having the second pick in a draft might be a blessing, not a curse.

I feel like Peterson is the Megabucks. With All Day, you know what you're getting. Since he was drafted in 2007, Peterson is the runningback to finish in the top five in fantasy scoring year in and year out.

While I DO think Johnson is one of the most explosive players in the league, and in NFL history, I don't like to rely on explosive. What if Johnson only has HALF as many 40 yard runs as last season? He would be out about 300 yards and four TD's.

I think you cant go wrong either way, but if it was me, I'm taking Peterson and banking on my 300 points.

Aaron: For this season I still believe it has to be AP. Chris Johnson is great, don’t get me wrong, but Adrian Peterson will not have the defense’s focus like CJ will this season.

When a defense faces the Vikings, they’re going to have to pick their poison when it comes to what to focus on, the air attack, or the run game.

But when a defense faces the Titans, the only player that they will be worried about is Johnson (making players like Kenny Britt a possible sleeper), so they will use most of their resources trying to stop him.

CJ is still a top three running back, but I would still take Peterson.

Do you think Pierre Thomas will finally get his deserving work load or will Reggie keep sticking his head out and taking some plays away? - Neal, Montreal, Canada.

Travis: Well first off, I like Thomas a lot this year, thanks in part to the departure of Mike Bell. Who was the real problem last year, not Reggie Bush.

The Saints, surprisingly finished 4th in rushing yards per game in 2009, and I think they need to repeat that statistic again this year, as they cannot rely entirely on Brees. His best friend will be that rushing attack to take off some of the heat.

N'awlins ran the rock 468 times last season, and Thomas only received a surprising 147. In better terms, that is only 31% of the carries the Saints dished out, or, one in every three.

Lets say, best case scenario, Thomas gets 75% percent of the carries. You're staring at a ridiculous season right there.But lets peel it back a little, and go with something a little more realistic.

Adrian Peterson had 67% of the Vikes carries, Grant scooped up 64% for the Pack, and even Frank Gore, injured for two contests had 53% of the totes for the Niners.

Using those numbers, lets say Thomas can snag 60% of the attempts for the Saints, and averages 4.9 yards a carry, after averaging 5.4 last season, this is just to get a reasonable number.

Bump the Saints up to 470 carries, with Thomas getting 285 of them [60.6%]. That would put him in line for 1,396 yards, and probably around 10 TD's with Mike Bell gone.

Don't worry about Thomas. He'll get his...and then some.

Aaron:

With Mike Bell gone, Pierre Thomas will get the caliber work load many of his fantasy owners have been waiting for the past season or two.

Thomas is a very good running back who last season averaged 5.4 yards per carry that was tied for 4th best in the NFL.

I think that Bush will still get what he’s due, but in my opinion it’s not enough to scare me away from Thomas. He should still get 70% of the carries and, like Bush, is a lock to catch 3+ passes a game.

Will Beanie Wells break 1250 yards and have a break-out year, or will Hightower get the bulk of the carries and their lack of passing offense take away the running threat?- Nathan, Plymouth, MN

Travis: Let me start out by saying No.

I'm sorry, but I don't think there is any way that Wells breaks 1250 yards. Only seven players last year had that many: CJ2K, S-Jax, Thomas Jones, AP, Ray Rice, Ryan Grant, and Cedric Benson.

I DO think that Wells has a breakout year, but more to the tune of 1,100 and possible a tad more yards. I think Wells ends up with probably a little more than half the carries, and Hightower around 30%, with the other fillers cleaning up the rest.

Fantasy wise, I think that Hightower is too much of a threat to Wells. I think Hightower sees a lot of the field on passing downs, and near the goal line.

Not to mention, those runningbacks up there had at least competent quarterbacks (with the exception of possibly Garrard), and I don't trust Derek Anderson just yet.

Don't bank on Wells if he's your starter, only if hes your #2 or #3, and you can take that to the... Well... Bank.

Aaron: Beanie wells will eclipse 1000 rushing yards this season with around eight touchdowns. Hightower will get the bulk of the goal line carries though and is much more relevant in the passing game.

I’m NOT going to say that Wells WILL break 1250 yards, but I won’t say that it’s out of the question. But I just don’t see that many.

Wells is going to be a solid #2 running back or flex player this season, but having Hightower will steal some touchdowns and eventually hurt his value.

Do you see Steve Slaton being the starting RB in Houston by week 8? -Mike in Sterling Heights, MI

Travis: I speak for both Aaron and I when I say that it ain't happening. Arian Foster was MORE than serviceable last season. When Slaton was benched for fumble problems, Foster had 4.8 YPC, more than any other Texan.

Foster has looked fantastic in the pre-season, and barring injury, I think Foster is the guy. Though, we all know how quick Kubiak is to bench a struggling back.

Assuming Foster can hold onto the ball, hes the one who will have the most value, although, Slaton could be a serviceable backup in deeper leagues, and is probably one of the few handcuffs I would reach for if the bench room is there

Until Week One...

Well, there you have it. Hopefully everyone with questions gained some valuable knowledge concerning their draft, or already assembled team.

If YOU have any questions that deserve some attention, please email [e-mail], and they will be answered in the following email.

Travis Rand is a Communications Major at the University of Southern Maine, and an enormous NYG and Oklahoma Sooners fan. He also wants to leave you a valuable draft tip.

Draft Tip #1: In an auction league, NEVER nominate the player you want for bidding. The less money on the table for everyone to spend on your guy, the better.

His archive can be found here.