Fantasy Football Fall Guy: Could Mike Sims-Walker Be a 2010 Bust?

Eric StashinSep 3, 2010

Mike Sims-Walker emerged last season as the best receiver for the Jacksonville Jaguars, accumulating 63 catches for 869 yards and 7 TD. While those numbers may not bowl you over…

OK, there isn’t a “but” coming. The numbers just aren’t that impressive, and the problem is that the Jaguars just aren’t a passing team. The offense is built to go through Maurice Jones-Drew and, as long as he is healthy, that’s not going to change (I know the rumors about the knee, but at this point it appears he is going to be fine for the regular season).

Jacksonville attempted 519 passes in 2009, tied for 23rd in the league. That was done just as much to keep defenses honest as anything else, with just six passing plays to go for at least 40 yards (tied for 20th in the league). With David Garrard back behind center, there is little that appears to have changed there.

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Don’t get me wrong, Garrard is solid and does a good job of protecting the football (only 10 INTs) and managing the game, but he’s not going to blow anyone away. Last season, he threw for 3,597 yards (16th in the league) and just 15 TD (22nd in the league). Considering he started all 16 games, there’s just not a lot to like.

It gets even more concerning when you realize that the numbers were nearly identical to his 2008 campaign (3,620 yards, 15 TD, 13 INT). It’s the way the Jaguars play and there’s no reason to think that things will change in 2010.

So, what does that mean for Sims-Walker’s upside? Last year, his marks led the team. In 2008, the leader was Matt Jones with 65 catches for 761 yards (Reggie Williams led the team with 3 TD). In 2007, no receiver had more than 45 receptions or 629 yards (though Reggie Williams did manage 10 TD).

In fact, Williams is the only Jaguars receiver since the start of the 2006 season to score more than four touchdowns. Just think about that for a second.

Is there anything that should lead us to believe that anything has changed in their offensive approach? If Sims-Walker is unlikely to get more than a handful of TDs, is there a point to drafting him?

That’s not to mention that he faded late in the year, with more than four catches in a game just once over the final six weeks (and more than two catches just once over the last five). Also, look at this three-week stretch in mid-year:

10/18 vs. St. Louis - 9 catches for 120 yards
11/1 @ Tennessee - 2 catches for 9 yards
11/8 vs. Kansas City - 6 catches for 147 yards and a touchdown

Inconsistent much?

He’s a usable option for sure, but despite being his team’s top receiver it’s impossible to consider him more than that despite the potential upside. He’s a mid-level WR2, at best. If I draft him (though, I probably won’t considering he is going in the fifth round according to Mock Draft Central), I’m going to be sure to have a top-notch backup. Given the Jaguars history of virtual non-production from the outside, there’s little reason to think that this year will be any different.

What are your thoughts on Sims-Walker? Am I too critical? How do you see him producing?

Make sure to check out Rotoprofessor’s 2010 rankings:

Also, make sure to check out our recent rookie rankings:

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