Big Ten Championship Game Rewind: Who Would Have Played Since 1998

I tried this a few months ago, though it was based on my own projections as to how the conferences would shake out.

As it turned out, my projections were way off.

So now that the Big Ten has made their divisions official, it might be worth considering who would have met in the conference championship since 1998, which was the beginning of the BCS era.

Obviously, this is an inexact science as the divisions would affect the dynamic of the conference and the games played.

Still, it's worth consideration, if only on a hypothetical basis.

To begin with, Nebraska's place in this will be determined by their Sagarin rating. If the Huskers' Sagarin rating was better than any team in their division in any given year, then the Huskers would be considered the winners of their division in that year.

As for the Big Ten teams, their place will simply be based on their conference record. In case of a tie, head-to-head results will determine the winner. If the teams in question didn't play each other, then overall record will determine the winner. If it is still a tie, then once again the Sagarin rating will determine the result.

Finally, for the sake of convenience, the divisions will go by the names Division A (the "eastern" division) and Division B (the "western" Division).

With that said, starting in 1998, OSU and Wisconsin were both 7-1 in conference. They didn't play each other and both had overall records of 11-1. Therefore, it goes to the Sagarin rating, in which Ohio State was No. 1, with Wisconsin at No. 6. Therefore, the division would have gone to the Buckeyes.

Meanwhile, Nebraska, with a Sagarin rating of ninth, beat out Michigan, who was the closest Division B Big Ten team.

In effect, 1998 would have seen Ohio State take on Nebraska.

In 1999, Wisconsin, by virtue of going 7-1, won their division. In Division B, Nebraska once again topped Michigan's Sagarin rating, thereby clinching the division for the second year in a row.

2000 saw a three-way tie in the Big Ten with Northwestern, Michigan, and Purdue all going 6-2. This gave Purdue Division A, but once again Nebraska had a higher Sagarin rating than either the Wolverines or Northwestern. 

Therefore, 2000's championship game pitted the Cornhuskers against the Boilermakers.

In 2001, Nebraska would have captured their fourth division championship in a row. They would have met the Illini, who went 7-1 in conference.

2002 saw two undefeated Big Ten teams in Iowa and Ohio State. As Iowa's Sagarin rating was not trumped by Nebraska's, the Hawkeyes would have gone against the Buckeyes in the championship.

In 2003, Michigan went 7-1 in conference and finally had a higher Sagarin than Nebraska. Meanwhile in Division A, both Purdue and Ohio State had a 6-2 conference record. Therefore, by virtue of the Buckeyes' 16-13 overtime win against the Boilers, OSU got the division.

Thus, the 2003 championship game would have seen a repeat of the OSU-Michigan game.

2004 saw both Iowa and Michigan with a 7-1 conference record. Nevertheless, Iowa's loss was to the Wolverines, thereby cementing Division B for UM.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin, by virtue of a 6-2 record, would have won Division A.

In 2005, both OSU and Penn State were 7-1 in conference, but Penn State beat Ohio State in their meeting. Therefore, PSU would have gone to their first conference championship game in this scenario.

As for Division B, Iowa, Michigan, and Northwestern all went 5-3. Iowa lost to both Michigan and Northwestern, while Michigan beat NU. Therefore, Michigan won the division.

2006 is fairly simple: Ohio State went 8-0, thus securing Division A, while Michigan went 7-1, thus securing Division B. This set up the second repeat of the Big Game.

2007 would set up Big Game repeat No. 3, as OSU went 7-1 and Michigan went 6-2.

As an aside, if four Michigan-OSU contests in two years doesn't make most of the country physically ill, then I don't know what would.

Nevertheless, that would be five in a row for the Wolverines to close out Lloyd Carr's career.

In 2008, once again, both Ohio State and Penn State went 7-1, but the Nits won the head-to-head contest. In Division B, Nebraska, by virtue of their higher Sagarin rating, trumped a 6-2 Michigan State.

Finally in 2009, at 7-1, OSU locked down Division A, while a 6-2 Iowa barely nudged out Nebraska.

The final results of this highly flawed exercise in numbers are as follows: Ohio State had the most championship game appearances with six. Michigan and Nebraska were tied for second with five apiece.

Iowa, Penn State, and Wisconsin all had two. Illinois and Purdue each had one.

The longest stretch of divisional superiority was five years, with Michigan surprisingly winning Division B every year from 2003-2007. Nebraska was second with four years between 1998-2001. Meanwhile, Ohio State never won more than two years in a row.

Division B was dominated by three teams: Michigan, Nebraska, and Iowa. On the other hand, Division A had five different champions.

Finally, under these guidelines, Ohio State and Michigan would have replayed each other exactly three times in 12 years.

Again, it's certainly not an exact science, but it does give one an idea of what the conference might have looked like and what it might look like in the future.