2010 College Football Predictions: 10 Vegas Odds To Avoid in Week 1
The long-awaited college football season is finally upon us and for those fans who like to keep things interesting by throwing down a couple dollars on these games, it is time to start dissecting the lines being provided by the nation’s odd makers.
Week one is usually an anxious time for football bettors, which can often force otherwise smart gamblers to take rather unconventional risks. Since most teams are just getting back into the swing of things, gauging the temperature of these early season spreads can often be a tough task.
With every can't miss bet that money layers find on the board, there are at least seven other spreads that subtly scream “stay away”.
Although some games will raise immediate red flags to keep your money in your pocket, other lines can seem like automatic wins at first glance. But what these “perfect lines” do not disclose is, if you dig a little bit deeper into the matchups, there could be several stinging stats that might make you think otherwise.
With that said, here are 10 Week One Vegas lines that gamblers might want to avoid during this often unpredictable week of the college football season.
Southern Mississippi @ South Carolina (-14)
1 of 10
When an SEC school goes up against a non-BCS team, 14-points almost seems like a gimmie bet. But do not be too quick to go either way on this opening weekend line.
While the Gamecocks will definitely be the better team to take the field, they have only defeated an opponent by 14 points or more in one of their past five games at home in the month of September.
Southern Miss, on the other hand, has covered four of their last five spreads in this opening month away from home.
South Carolina should definitely leave this game the victor, but whether or not they can cover a two touchdown spread might not be worth the gamble.
Pittsburgh @ Utah (-3)
2 of 10
Utah kicks off their final season within the Mountain West against 15th ranked Pittsburgh and despite being a three point home favorite, the Utes could start of this season on the wrong foot.
While Utah has won six straight September games at Rice-Eccles Stadium, they have only covered the spread in three of those games.
A three-point spread hardly seems like a tall task, but the Panthers are not your typical opponent.
Pitt has had their own problems in the month of September though, only covering one of their past four spreads on the road.
This match-up could seriously go either way, though, and finding a solid reason to take one side over the other might be tough.
Colorado (-13) @ Colorado State
3 of 10
Rivalry matchups have to be one of the most tenuous games to lay money on, mainly because you never really know how the underdog in the rivalry will react to facing their long time nemesis.
The Colorado/Colorado State rivalry has burned strong for years, but trying to decipher a clear winner, especially when both teams appear to be in rebuilding years, can be extremely difficult.
Since 2001, Colorado has won six of the nine matchups, but has only covered four of the spreads. To add to this, Colorado has only beaten the Rams by more than 10 points twice in the past 10 seasons.
While this may convince people to take Colorado State with the points, the Buffs could surprise people this season even though they have one foot out of their conference’s door.
The uncertainty surrounding both teams and the necessity to win by two touchdowns for the Buffs tattoos this game with a stay away tag. Colorado could make it happen, but then again, after seeing what they did last season, it easily could go the other way.
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Western Kentucky @ Nebraska (-35.5)
4 of 10
Everyone knows that Nebraska will win this warm up game, but by how much is the question on the tongues of sports book patrons.
In games where the Cornhuskers are favored by 15 or more points, they have post an against the spread record of 5-7. This is hardly comforting when trying to figure out if they can open up the season with a blow out.
But if last season is an indicator of anything, 30-plus points could be a conquerable task for Nebraska. In their three September games last year, they won two games by more than 45 points.
While this last stat provides that warm feeling that can often force a gamblers hand, this spread is still a little too high to take even though Nebraska could very well cover.
UCONN @ Michigan (-3)
5 of 10
No one comes into the Big House in September and takes down the Wolverines…unless you are Appalachian State.
All jokes aside, covering the spread during the first game of the year has been a problem for Michigan (2-4 since 2003) and this season won’t be any easier with UCONN coming into town.
The Huskies received a decent amount of votes in both the AP and USA Today Polls despite not cracking the Top 25 in either, and because of this, they should raise havoc during this first game of the season.
With so much on the line for Rich Rodriguez, though, this could be his year to break the trend and prove to the Big Ten that the third year is truly the charm.
While my heart says Michigan will win this game, my pocketbook says watch out for UCONN because they are better than most people think.
Washington @ BYU (-3)
6 of 10
Jake Locker and the Washington Huskies are a hot underdog this season and the Dawgs certainly start off that way against BYU to kick off the season.
But does Washington have what it takes to win one of the biggest games in the opening week? It’s tough to say.
While the Huskies definitely have the offense to make some noise in week one, BYU is out to prove to the world that they are BCS worthy.
Something has to give. But, figuring out which one will buckle first might be too much to ask from gamblers in the first week of the season.
Washington has not had much success in September the past five years, posting an 8-12 record. But, BYU has only been able to cover two spreads in their past six games against Pac-10 teams.
There are too many question marks going into this game and a clear winner does not immediately emerge when looking at the numbers. Keep away.
Arkansas State @ Auburn (-31.5)
7 of 10
Yes, Auburn should annihilate the Arkansas State Red Wolves, but can they real beat a 32-point spread?
The Tigers have not beaten a team by more than 32 points since 2005 when they opened a can of whoop ass all over the Ball State Cardinals.
But opening up the season with a win this big might be too much to ask of the Tigers. Auburn returns a bevy of players of both sides of the ball and while this warm up game should help them iron out any kinks, hoping that they cover this spread is a gamble that could come down to whether or not the number-2’s can run up the score.
San Jose State @ Alabama (-39.5)
8 of 10
The defending National Champs should have no problems handling this docile West Coast team, but there is something about spreads above 35 points that should draw immediate concern amongst the gambling nation.
While this spread is definitely doable for Alabama, a hangover is not out of the question for the Tide and a slow start could hamper their chances of surpassing this lofty spread.
Alabama should run the table, though, but get ready to be at the edge of your seat if you do decide to lay the points in this opening week game.
Oregon State Vs. TCU (-13)
9 of 10
One of the marquee games of the weekend, Oregon State versus TCU has a very enticing line, but also has the probably to bite any takers right in the behind.
Whether you are a TCU fan or a Beaver lover, the argument could be made for either team to cover the given spread.
Oregon State has the Rodgers’ brother which should allow them to keep this game rather close. TCU has a BCS-bowl caliber team that has the potential to blow away any team that they face this early in the season.
TCU does have an edge with their against the spread record in these early games, covering seven of their past eight games in September. Oregon State has not been as lucky in the early goings, failing to cover the line in six of their past eight September games.
Either way, taking one side could be detrimental to your pocketbook depending on how this neutral site game eventually plays out. And despite the two score spread, each team has a pretty decent chance of emerging the victor.
Boise State (-2.5) Vs. Virginia Tech
10 of 10
This Monday night tussle will probably be the toughest game to stay away from, largely due to it being one of only two games on the Labor Day Holiday.
If you can resist the temptation to pick at least one side, you can start counting your winnings (or cut your losses) a day earlier than the rest.
Boise State has been practically invincible in September the past there years, posting an 8-1 record and only succumbing to the spread three times.
Virginia Tech, on the other hand, has also done excellent straight up (posting an 11-2 record) but have struggled to live up to Vegas’ expectations (tallying a 6-7 record against the spread)
But don’t let these numbers fool you…this prime time match-up is either team’s game for the taking. Crunching the numbers probably won’t help you, so if you need to throw something down on this game, bet with your heart. If you have problems betting with your heart, then avoid this line at all cost.
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