ACC Predictions—Week 1

The college football season begins this week.  Get excited.  To celebrate, here is my set of predictions for the first week in the ACC.

As this is my first prediction slideshow, I’ll summarize how I will be predicting games on Bleacher Report.  First, I'll give a brief preview of the game followed by a percentage of each team’s chance of winning.  The highest percentage a team can get is 99.9 percent as anything can happen on the grid-iron (see Michigan.)  Then I will give my projected score of the game.  Please note that just because I favored one team in the percentages doesn’t mean I won’t pick them to win the game.

Hope you enjoy!

Wake Forest vs. Presbyterian

While it won’t be the most exciting game, Wake Forest will need an easy opponent to start off the season.  The Deacons came very close to having a good season but it just didn’t seem to go their way.  They lost five games by three points or less.

With the loss of Riley Skinner, things don’t seem to be looking up either.  But Presbyterian went an impressive 0-11 last year.  And both teams played Elon.  Wake Forest beat them 35-7; Presbyterian lost 41-7.

Wake Forest—99.9 percent Presbyterian—0.01 percent

41-6 Wake Forest

Miami vs. Florida A&M

Again, not the most exciting matchup.  Miami is looking to reassert themselves as a national power while A&M will be trying to win the Mid-Eastern conference.

Even though Miami probably can’t help themselves from looking ahead to their week two matchup against Ohio State, they should have no problem blowing by Florida A&M.  Last year it was 48-16 and Miami is on the rise.

Miami—99.9 percent Florida A&M—0.01 percent

55-6 Miami

Florida State vs. Samford

There are going to be interesting games in week one, just keep reading.  This game could end up looking a lot like Miami vs. Florida A&M.  Samford and A&M are similar and Miami and Florida State are similar.  The Seminoles need a lot of improvement on defense but in their scrimmage, the defense came out on top.

Both Florida State and the ACC have embraced a Christian Ponder Heisman campaign.  Behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, he should be able to produce a highlight reel rather easily against an FCS opponent.

Florida State—99.9 percent Samford—0.01 percent

55-10 Florida State

Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina St.

Not the most interesting sounding game on paper.  But did you know that South Carolina St. was ranked 10th in the FCS for the preseason?  Didn’t think so.

But that really won’t matter too much.  Hiring Al Groh was a great move for the Jackets as their defense was one of the worst in the ACC last year.  The most interesting thing to watch in this game will be the Josh(ua) Nesbitt, specifically his turnovers and passing yardage.

Georgia Tech—99 percent South Carolina St.—1 percent

45-13 Georgia Tech

Boston College vs. Weber St.

Will someone please play an FBS opponent in week one?  Washington State, Vanderbilt, Ball State even?  Anyway, don’t expect this game to be very close.  Boston College’s defense figures to improve on an impressive 2009 campaign and Montel Harris is a fantastic running back.  If you play fantasy college football, do yourself a favor and pick him up.

Like Georgia Tech, the most interesting thing to watch will be the quarterback play.  Dave Shinskie was named the starting quarterback but was spotty at best in 2009.  Getting him off to a good start will be crucial if the Eagles expect to have a special season.

Boston College—99.8 percent Weber St.—0.02 percent

51-3 Boston College

Clemson vs. North Texas

I’ll take North Texas, at least they are a FBS opponent.  Lance Dunbar can light up the box score, just not against an always solid Clemson defense.  With Kyle Parker returning as quarterback, Clemson looks to repeat as Atlantic division champions.

Without C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford, the offense will need to find it’s identity and North Texas is the perfect opponent as they had an awful defense last year.  Death Valley won’t be kind to the Mean Green.

Clemson—99 percent North Texas—1 percent

37-10 Clemson

North Carolina St. vs. Western Carolina

Western Carolina lost 45-0 to Vanderbilt last season.  Yeah, it’s that kind of game.  Russell Wilson is an incredible athlete and I’d suggest picking him up if you play fantasy.  Nate Irving should also help out a porous defense.

The Wolfpack are looking to return to a bowl game and become relevant in the Atlantic division.  If they can’t dominate Western Carolina, it will be a long season in Raleigh.

North Carolina St.—99.9 percent Western Carolina—0.01 percent

55-14 North Carolina St.

Virginia vs. Richmond

Finally, a game that could be interesting.  Richmond is one of the best FCS programs in the country and beat Duke to start out the season last year.  Virginia also lost to William & Mary to start the season last year.

But Mike London is really changing the culture in Charlottesville.  If he can’t win his first game against an FCS opponent, there will be a lot of people who will give up on the season.  It’s really a must win for the Wahoos but they will have to fight for it.

Virginia—75 percent Richmond—25 percent

27-17 Virginia

Duke vs. Elon

Another fantastic FCS program that is up against a team looking to improve and get into a bowl game.  As mentioned in the last slide, Duke lost to Richmond to start the season last year.  Sean Renfree will have large shoes to fill with the departure of Thaddeus Lewis but he has some great wide receivers for support.

David Cutcliffe is an excellent coach and has enough offensive talent to get to a bowl and remind Duke fans that they also play football.  But in order to do that, the Blue Devils have to win games when they can.  This is one of those games.

Duke—80 percent Elon—20 percent

31-13 Duke

North Carolina vs. LSU

To watch this or TCU vs. Oregon St.  Decisions, decisions.  This has the best storyline of Saturday night as LSU looks to regain it’s glory while UNC tries to get passed all of the NCAA violations.

The game really comes down to whether or not all of the Tar Heel players will be on the field.  If the game was tomorrow, it would appear that the bulk of the UNC’s defense wouldn’t be playing.  That decision for all of those draft picks to return doesn’t appear to be working out well.

LSU had a really uncharacteristic year in 2009 with one of the worst offenses in all of college football.  A lot will be riding on this season with respect to Les Miles.  After the departure of Nick Saban, the Tigers haven’t done well despite consistently recruiting better than almost anyone.

The matchup should favor North Carolina but only if they have all of their starters.  Without them, the Tar Heels are an average ACC team.  But there are a lot of questions surrounding LSU.  The game could be a complete dud or one of the most exciting games of the season.  At the very least, it’s a game the ACC could really use to gain national respect.

UNC—60 percent LSU—40 percent

16-13 UNC

Maryland vs. Navy

This game really needs to be played every year.  Maryland had a rough year last year and Ralph Freidgen is on one of the hottest seats in the country.  Navy almost beat Ohio State to start out the 2009 season.  The teams are coming from entirely different places but the game could be closer than people expect.

Ricky Dobbs runs the triple option really well and has put the Midshipmen in a place to get into a BCS game.  He needs to improve in the passing game in order to put Navy in serious contention, though.  Despite going 2-10, Maryland kept pace in most of their games with Jamarr Robinson under center.  He has exceptional scrambling capabilities, as he ran for 129 yards against Virginia Tech.

With a lot is riding on the game, both teams should come out with passion and have an exciting football game.  Teams that have extra time to prepare for the triple option offense tend to do well.  Maryland should be more prepared for the attack than Ohio State was simply because they cannot overlook Navy if they want to keep their coach.

Maryland—30 percent Navy—70 percent

31-20 Navy

Game of the Week: Virginia Tech vs. Boise State

This could easily be the game of the year.  Boise State is the premier BCS buster and has the college football world buzzing with debates on whether or not they could play in a national championship.  The talk surrounding Virginia Tech is about the running back duo of Ryan Williams and Darren Evans.

By now, everyone has heard of Kellen Moore but there isn’t much talk about the Bronco’s defense which held their best opponents to ten points or less.  And there also isn’t talk about the Hokie defense either, a feat unheard of at Virginia Tech.  Expect both defensive units to come out strong in the first quarter but for the offenses to dominate the fourth quarter.

This game could take many different turns.  It could turn into a blow out on either side; it could be a triple overtime game; it could be a defensive game.  History says the game will be close as Boise State hangs tough with teams and always makes the game interesting.  Or you could look at the Georgia game where the Bulldogs blew out BSU.  Like I said, it could go any way.

Ultimately, the game comes down to the numbers and Boise State hasn’t been able to contain a big name running backs that don’t punch people in the face.  Ryan Matthews ran for 234 yards against them.  The problem was that Fresno State had no defense and a mediocre pocket passer.  Virginia Tech has Tyrod Taylor and a defense that has ranked in the top ten nationally since 2003.  Bud Foster is not a man to be doubted.

Virginia Tech—65 percent Boise State—35 percent

27-23 Virginia Tech

Summary

The 2009 season didn't open well for the ACC.  It lost its high profile games and its really low profile games.  It's debatable which one cost the league credibility.  But the ACC should be the most improved conference in the country from top to bottom and there really won't be many, if any, easy wins during the conference schedule.

In the eyes of the nation, though, the ACC needs to win the games I predicted they win with a possible exception to LSU in order to gain the respect the expansion was supposed to bring.

In some respects, the VT BSU game is a lose lose for the Hokies and consequently the conference.  The Broncos simply don't get the respect that they have earned in past seasons.  All ACC eyes will be on Landover on Labor Day.

And FBS teams aren't supposed to lose to FCS teams.  That's why there is the distinction.  It doesn't matter if they have a solid team, the fact they are a step below Non-AQ teams is the only factor.  And rightly so.  It's just frustrating as an ACC football fan to watch people malign the conference because UVA can't beat William & Mary.

My ultimate prediction is this: the ACC ends up as the second best conference in the country.

Please read the articles I've already posted and my articles in the future.  I look forward to your comments and would like to discuss the games in more detail with you all.  Thanks for reading!