The Miami Heat Are One Injury Away From Being Irrelevant
This article Courtesy Of Rip City Report
So you signed the three best free agents this summer to long-term deals.
Three players that were once cornerstones of their previous organizations.
Fan favorites. Saviors. All-Stars.
Those three players are expected to bring you six years of winning and hopefully a couple Championships along the way.
But what happens if three turns into two?
Or the unspeakable, what if three turns into a one?
Let me explain.
The Miami Heat won the jackpot in July when they snagged the three biggest free agents on the market: LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and they retained Dwyane Wade.
The Miami Heat changed the meaning of building a championship contender, and they did so over night.
But Miami's path to championship contention has its benefits and its faults.
On one hand, the organization doesn't have to draft players, then wait years to see if they fulfill their potential. Snagging three proven free agents bypasses that process, allowing the team to experience instant success.
But by building through the draft with a plan and leadership, you develop a team. That team may not be ready to compete at a championship level for around five or six years, but when the time comes the players will be well-rounded and be ready to compete as a team rather than a collection of talent.
Look at the Portland Trail Blazers and Oklahoma City Thunder. Both teams drafted well and went from lottery teams to potential championship contenders.
Teams that build through the draft are more prepared to handle injuries and losses within the team.
But when you commit nearly 82 percent of your Cap space to three players, you are going to lack depth and struggle with handling adversity.
Those three players, no matter how dominant, have to play an entire season completely healthy.
The role players around your core must stay healthy.
In the Miami Heat's case, If Dwyane Wade succumbs to injury, who will replace him?
Right now that would be either Mike Miller or Eddie House.
If you consider that the big three of LeBron, Wade, and Bosh, averaging 80.3 points a game (with last years stats), and that this team will likely average around 110 points a game, losing one of your three stars would take away about 27 percent of your offense.
Most teams suffer through losing 10 percent or 15 percent of their offense through injuries, it is hard to imagine how badly a loss of just one player would affect the Miami Heat.
And the loss of a key offensive player isn't just a one-dimensional issue.
Losing an offensive threat puts more pressure on the players still standing. Even if teams do not have the defensive stopping power to slow the Heat's offensive firepower, coaches are still game-planning to stop your team's offense.
Losing a main offensive option will make it easier for teams to game plan for the remaining two, plus the replacement.
I'm not saying that the Heat will be done if one player misses 30 games, because they still have the leadership and talent to pull themselves through it.
But the Heat won't be contending for a championship with two out of their three legs.
In other words, you can't win a championship with 63 percent of your team (calculated using the average of the Big three's point per game averages, minus 33 percent of their average per game output, and then replacing that with the average role player point output).
Not only should the risk of losing LeBron, Bosh, Or Wade haunt the Heat, the risk of losing valuable role players is a big issue.
The Heat's frontcourt, outside of Bosh, isn't anything to write home about.
It consists of Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony, Zydrunas Illgauskas, Juwan Howard, and Jamaal Magloire.
Take your pick. Who is the Miami Heat's starting Center?
Big Z is my pick.
What happens if he goes down? Haslem has had off-court issues and could be facing a suspension. Joel Anthony could be used sparingly, and Juwan Howard, though undersized, has proven that he can handle his own in the paint.
But really, there isn't anyone in that front court that can step up and help them advance in the Heat of a playoff battle.
The Miami Heat will already have a difficult time with Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic, an injury to a key frontcourt role player could all but seal their fate.
If one player of Miami Thrice falls to injury for an extended period of time, things could get out of hand.
In my mind, they would go from a top two seed in the East to a fourth or fifth seed.
The Miami Heat would go from Championship favorites in the East, to a team with dark-horse odds at a title.
Things could get ugly.
The Heat are playing one big game of Russian Roulette.
Hopefully there aren't any rounds in the cylinder this season.
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