NBA Predictions 2010: Ranking the Free Agency Winners and Losers
One of the most interesting and excruciating free agent periods we have ever seen is finally just about over. While aging has-beens like Allen Iverson and Tracy McGrady are still on the market, almost all NBA veterans have found a home.
The eventful summer provided a handful of failures and plenty of success stories as the salary-dumping efforts paid off for some franchises, and did next to nothing for others.
Let's take a look at the biggest winners and losers of the free agent frenzy, beginning with the NBA teams that came out on the short end of the stick.
No. 10 Biggest Loser: L.A. Clippers
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The Clippers deserve credit for making a run at LeBron James, but at the end of the day they did little to improve their roster.
The team re-signed Craig Smith and Rasual Butler, and nabbed Randy Foye from Washington and Ryan Gomes from Minnesota. All three contracts were very economical, and won't put the Clippers in a financial bind.
Foye will provide insurance if Baron Davis or Eric Gordon suffer injuries, while Smith, Butler, and Gomes offer depth along the frontline.
After missing out on LeBron, the Clippers simply didn't do enough to address the small forward position. Unless Al-Farouq Aminu improves dramatically, there will be a huge void at small forward.
That might be enough to keep the Clippers from contending for the playoffs.
No. 9 Biggest Loser San Antonio Spurs
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The Spurs were quiet in free agency, making only two major moves.
San Antonio re-signed 3-point specialist in a move that made sense. As long as Tim Duncan is on the roster, Bonner will be able to get away with playing power forward on the defensive end and make up for his defensive shortcomings with his jump shooting.
The re-signing of Jefferson was nothing short of mind-boggling. His performance last season was so dismal that the Spurs did everything possible to trade him. A divorce seemed inevitable. Apparently, something changed.
Jefferson opted out of his deal that would have paid him $15 million next season and re-upped with the Spurs for four years, $39 million. It remains to be seen if he will stay out of Gregg Popovich's doghouse or find or role in the offense next season.
No. 8 Biggest Loser: Charlotte Bobcats
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Michael Jordan's eye for talent has always been a bit puzzling. That might explain why the Bobcats decided to re-sign knucklehead Tyrus Thomas to a five-year, $40 million deal.
Although the money in Thomas' contract isn't horrible, the Bobcats have little use for his services as the team is presently constructed. Instead of targeting a proven point guard, Charlotte settled on a power forward who may never pan out.
Charlotte signed Shaun Livingston and former Kansas star Sherron Collins, but neither player can be counted on to contribute great things.
The Bobcats have been mentioned in connection with Chris Paul, and could eventually dangle Thomas to acquire his services. That would make the signing look a whole lot better.
No. 7 Biggest Loser: New Orleans Hornets
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Chris Paul has a right to be upset after the Hornets' 2010 free agent class was headlined by Aaron Gray, who makes former NBA center Chris Dudley look like David Lee.
The Hornets are obviously in cost-cutting mode and probably won't keep Paul through next season, which could intensify the franchise's financial difficulties.
Poor CP3.
No. 6: Biggest Loser Milwaukee Bucks
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On the surface, the Bucks have done a good job of assembling a solid roster around building blocks Brandon Jennings, and Andrew Bogut.
There is just one big problem: they spent a combined $72 million on John Salmons and Drew Gooden.
Both veterans are capable role players. Salmons has shown the ability to be a reliable and relatively efficient scorer, but the Bucks have him locked in until he turns 35.
Gooden's rollicking career has taken him to nine teams in nine eight years. Somehow, it's difficult to imagine Milwaukee being the last stop on his world tour.
No. 5 Biggest Loser: Toronto Raptors
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Bryan Colangelo failed to get a sign-and-trade for Chris Bosh and settled for Amir Johnson, and Linas Kleiza. The Kleiza contract is a good value. The Johnson deal is simply horrible.
Throughout his young career, Johnson has fouled at a historic rate while producing little. His development hasn't been impressive enough to warrant a five-year, $34 million contract.
The Raptors appear poised to bring up the rear in the Eastern Conference for at least the next two seasons.
No. 4 Biggest Loser: Minnesota Timberwolves
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With Ricky Rubio still nothing more than a dream, David Kahn filled a need at point guard with the dependable Luke Ridnour. Considering Jonny Flynn's tenuous relationship with Kurt Rambis, four-years, $16 million for a serviceable asset is a nice find.
Kahn basically stole Michael Beasley for next-to-nothing, providing another nice offseason acquisition.
But despite the surprising positives during the summer, one glaring negative ruined everything.
Kahn gave Darko Milicic a four-year, $20 million deal in what was basically an effort to outbid European teams more than NBA franchises.
The Timberwolves are remarkably thin at center, a position that needed to be addressed in the offseason. Milicic has good size, but probably can't play the middle with a high degree of effectiveness. Let's face it, he is a borderline NBA player who probably won't amount to anything.
No. 3 Biggest Loser: Cleveland Cavaliers
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The Cavaliers could easily be number one for obvious reasons, but they have already had to endure enough pain. That said, they have to be on the list.
Dan Gilbert's franchise wasn't in good shape heading to the offseason, burdened by a host of bad contracts and with little leverage to make any deals.
That left Cleveland with very little freedom to sign any free agents. In the only free agent move of the offseason, the team inked Joey Graham fill LeBron's vacated roster spot.
At least the Cavs managed to move Delonte West, and get something useful in return.
No. 2 Biggest Loser: Atlanta Hawks
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The biggest sign that the NBA world has gone completely mad during the free agent period was Joe Johnson getting more money than LeBron James.
The Hawks find themselves saddled by a enormous contract with little room to maneuver while staying below the luxury tax.
Johnson probably deserved a max-deal, but the state of the Hawks franchise made it appear he would get it by staying in Atlanta.
The Hawks have a 20-point scorer for years to come, but aren't in a better position to win anything anytime soon.
No. 1 Biggest Loser: New Jersey Nets
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After missing out on all the big names, the Nets scrambled to fill a roster already containing a handful of role players with even more role players.
Mikhail Prokhorov's first investments were in Travis Outlaw, Jordan Farmar and Anthony Morrow, who received a combined $59 million to take their collective talents to Brooklyn.
Sure, the money isn't horrible, but Nets fans certainly expected more than this. The failure in free agency places additional pressure on the development of young Derrick Favors.
Time To Shift Gears
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Take a second and get all those negative vibes and horrendous contracts out of your mind. There were plenty of bargains and big names who got big money to make a big impact. Let's take a look at 10 of the NBA teams who got the most out of free agency.
No. 10 Biggest Winner: Houston Rockets
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The Rockets missed out on Chris Bosh, but did what they could to surround Yao Ming and Aaron Brooks with capable role players.
Houston re-signed Luis Scola and Kyle Lowery, and added Brad Miller to provide depth behind Yao.
Miller's role as a capable jump shooter fits in well with Houston's penetrating guards. Expecting the 12-year veteran to actually play out the duration of his contract seems unrealistic, but the Rockets will make the most of his minutes.
Houston failed to address a glaring need at shooting guard, where the fragile Kevin Martin can't be expected to make it through the season. General Manager Daryl Morey could look to add depth through a trade at some point next season.
Overall, the Rockets fared pretty well in free agency.
No. 9 Biggest Winner: Phoenix Suns
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The Suns could have packed it in after losing Amar'e Stoudemire, but they didn't. In addition to re-signing sharpshooter Channing Frye, Phoenix snagged Hakim Warrick and Josh Childress to provide depth and acquired Hedo Turkgolu.
The retention of Frye provides Steve Nash with a capable pick-and-pop player, and a decent rebounder on the interior to help fill the void left by Stoudemire. The Suns are counting on Robin Lopez to hold down the fort inside, which could be a lot to ask.
Phoenix remains in cost-cutting mode, and could have a vastly different look by the end of next season.
No. 8 Biggest Winner: Golden State Warriors
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As usual, the Warriors could have used some defensive-oriented help in free agency. But asking Don Nelson and Warriors management to pursue defense is like asking Mel Gibson to control that nasty temper of his; it's just not gonna happen.
Golden State added David Lee in a sign-and-trade, adding a proven NBA star capable of putting up ridiculous numbers in Nellie's go-go system.
The Warriors also signed Dorell Wright, who has never managed to reach his potential but still could, and added Jannero Pargo and popular summer league star Jeremy Lin.
No. 7 Biggest Winner: Orlando Magic
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Quiet and steady; that's all the Magic needed.
Orlando matched the Bulls' offer to restricted free agent J.J. Redick, and snagged a pair of former Knicks in Quentin Richardson and Chris Duhon.
Richardson probably regrets leaving Miami, but he will get a chance to play a big role in the quest to prevent his ex-teammate Dwyane Wade from stampeding through Orlando.
Re-signing Redick was a great move both economically and from a basketball perspective. If Duhon can find a way to play defense like he did during his early years in Chicago, he will have good value as Jameer Nelson's backup.
No. 6 Biggest Winner: L.A. Lakers
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Much like Orlando, the Lakers quietly filled needs with capable veterans in free agency.
The signing of Matt Barnes and Steve Blake provides two solid pieces for Phil Jackson, and should improve the Lakers' bench.
Derek Fisher and Shannon Brown re-signed and are joined by Theo Ratliff, who provides a slight upgrade over D.J. Mbenga.
Sadly, the days of free agent Adam Morrison sitting listlessly on the Lakers' bench are probably over.
No. 5 Biggest Winner: Dallas Mavericks
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The Mavericks did a nice job in free agency without garnering a great deal of attention.
Dirk Nowitzki re-signed for less money, enabling the Mavs to overpay slightly to keep Brendan Haywood.
Mark Cuban's team is constructed perfectly to compete against the Lakers, and has a nice mix of veterans and promising young players. The re-signing of Haywood and acquisition of Tyson Chandler could pay huge dividends, assuming both big men are able to stay healthy.
No. 4 Biggest Winner: New York Knicks
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The early favorite to top next year's biggest winner list kept things under control financially, and set the table for the summer of 2011.
Raymond Felton gives Mike D'Antoni a legitimate NBA point guard, and should star in the Knicks' system.
Amar'e Stoudemire's game also fits perfectly into the fast-paced pick-and-roll heavy offense.
Perhaps more importantly, the Knicks didn't overpay for any veteran players or gamble on unproven youngsters.
The Knicks will be fine as long as Isiah Thomas isn't allowed to make decisions ever again.
No. 3 Biggest Winner: Boston Celtics
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No, the Celtics aren't ranked third because they signed Shaq.
In addition to adding Jermaine O'Neal, don't forget Boston re-signed free agents Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce to keep the dynasty together and prepare for another run at the NBA Finals.
Boston also re-signed Nate Robinson and Marquis Daniels, who could easily replace defensive stopper Tony Allen if he stays healthy.
As for Shaq, he is proof that numbers do indeed lie. The Big Leprechaun has very little left, and probably won't have much of an impact for the Celtics.
Boston will still be a contender, regardless of how much Shaq is able to produce.
No. 2 Biggest Winner: Chicago Bulls
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The Bulls did a good job of filling needs with proven NBA players. It might not be enough to compete for a NBA title right away, but there is no question Chicago made the most of its opportunities after missing out on the likes of LeBron, Wade and Bosh.
Carlos Boozer's injury history is certainly a bit of a concern, but his production speaks for itself. Boozer gives the Bulls a post-scorer for the first time since Elton Brand, and is a perfect second option behind Derrick Rose.
The two other former Utah Jazz teammates provide a nice platoon at shooting guard, with Ronnie Brewer expected to start and Kyle Korver slated to come off the bench.
The Bulls needed a post-scorer, athletic shooting guard with good size and a pure shooter. They clearly filled all three needs.
No. 1 Biggest Winner: Miami Heat
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Instead of focusing on the famous threesome, let's look at what else Pat Riley did to fill out what is a surprisingly complete roster.
The Heat needed shooting, so they signed Mike Miller and Eddie House. They needed depth up front—so they re-signed Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony and Jamaal Magloire , and brought in Juwan Howard and Zydrunas Ilgauskas.
Those moves make Miami a deep, and undeniably dangerous team when combined with the remarkable free agent coup.
The only real concern is what will happen at center, where Ilgauskas will be asked to play big minutes coming off the bench, especially during playoff time.
From start to finish, the Heat will undoubtedly be fascinating to watch next season.
