2010 College Football Predictions: 5 Reasons Iowa Will Beat Ohio State

I know, I'm getting ahead of myself.

It's a long road to Nov. 20. Furthermore, by the time the Hawkeyes get there, there is no guarantee that they will be playing for the Big Ten Championship.

After all, they've got an out-of-conference road game at Tucson, and we all remember what happened the last time Iowa went into the desert .

They've also got to play a game in the newly renovated Big House against what I think will be a resurgent Michigan squad.

Furthermore, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State all promise to be competitive teams, and all of them are visiting Kinnick Stadium.

Then there is also the little matter of the Cy-Hawk Trophy, as well as Floyd of Rosedale.

Of course, Northwestern has been a huge monkey on Iowa's back.

Finally, given how Iowa fared last season against UNI, Eastern Illinois and Ball State—let alone Indiana— are in no way sure things.

So, why am I fast-forwarding to Nov. 20?

Because expectations and enthusiasm are about as high as they've ever been in Iowa City.

Recently, Iowa color commentator Ed Podolak was quoted as saying this team is the most talented "Iowa team in the nearly 30 years [he] has been doing color commentary work."

Obviously, Podolak, like any fan, could be said to be homering it up a bit. However, as Jon Miller of Hawkeyenation.com pointed out, "Podolak has at times been one of the more pointed ‘home town’ color analysts you will find in college broadcasting. He has a way of being critical yet fair."

He further noted, "If Ed felt this year’s Iowa team was being too hyped, he would say it something like ‘I think this team could have a great season, but there are a few areas that give me pause for concern.'"

Needless to say, I'm not basing my own enthusiasm strictly on Ed Podolak's opinion. However, I do think Eddie's view is representative of the way a lot Hawk fans feel, myself included.

In short, this could be the year. This could be the year that fully delivers on the promise of 2002-2004. This could be the year that the Hawks win an uncontested Big Ten title, go to the Rose Bowl, and maybe even more.

To do all of that, it is highly likely they will have to go through the Buckeyes; a team that Kirk Ferentz is 1-6 against. It is also a team that Iowa has beaten exactly seven times over the last 50 years.

Yet, for the first time in the Ferentz era, I genuinely believe this team has what it takes to take out the Bucks (yes, I had my doubts going into the 2004 game, let alone 2006).

Here is why.

Schedule

First of all, there is the fact that the game will be in Iowa City.

Of course, historically that hardly seems to have mattered to the Buckeyes, as their winning percentage at Kinnick over the last 50 years has been .817. This is a minimal difference from their winning percentage playing Iowa at Ohio Stadium—.864.

Still, it's something.

More importantly, consider that before the Iowa game, OSU will have played a home game against a typically tough Penn State team.

Furthermore, after the Iowa game, they play that minor end-of-the-season event against the Michigan Wolverines.

Meanwhile, Iowa precedes the OSU game with road trips to Indiana and Northwestern.

Obviously, as an Iowa fan, I've endured two Northwestern losses in a row, as well as three in four years. It has not been enjoyable, and I am certainly not oblivious enough to write that one down as a win.

However, if Iowa is to contend for the Big Ten Championship, they will have to get the Northwestern monkey off their back. The reality is, if they can't win that one, then they have no business being Big Ten Champions.

Finally, after the OSU game, Iowa finishes the year against Minnesota.

I realize it is a rivalry game, and anything can happen. However, what hasn't happened is Minnesota has not scored a point on Iowa in eight quarters.

Maybe they'll score this year, but again, the intensity of that game hardly compares to the OSU-Michigan rivalry.

Turnovers Equal Turnaround

Phil Steele has a theory called "turnovers equal turnaround."

The basis of that theory is that turnovers are an element of the game that fluctuates from year-to-year.

A team that benefits from an excessive number of turnovers in Year A can reasonably expect to be on the losing side of the turnover battle in Year B. Obviously, the opposite is also true.

Thus, a team that finds themselves plus an extra—for instance—10 turnovers in a given year, might have a point swing of as much as 140 points. This would equate to more wins.

According to Steele, this theory holds true 80 percent of the time, not only in FBS football, but also FCS and NFL football.

Moreover, a team that is as consistently skilled as Ohio State or Florida can somewhat regularly overcome a turnover deficit. In effect, such teams' overriding talents account for at least a portion of the 20 percent exception.

Needless to say, this theory is not a bona-fide law. While the evidence—according to Steele—does bear it out, it cannot be counted on 100 percent of the time.

However, logically speaking, consider your standard turnover. There are undeniably many turnovers, and many elements of turnovers, that require a great deal of skill and discipline.

On the other hand, turnovers often have elements of luck. Most obviously, consider a fumble.

A football is not a basketball. It is strangely shaped. The onside kick owes its potential success to the strange shape of the ball.

A fumble may very well be caused by skill. Moreover, an offensive player that can be depended upon to take care of the football is considered to have a specific ability.

However, once that ball hits the ground, it becomes a random gamble. There is no true skill in recovering a fumble.

Essentially, once the ball is on the ground, each team has a 50-50 chance of recovering it. The team that does recover it happened to win the lottery in that particular instance.

With that in mind, in 2009, Ohio State had the most positive turnover margin in Big Ten conference play at plus+1.31.

Maybe that had a great deal to do with skill. After all, OSU had Kurt Coleman prowling the backfield.

They also had great coverage linebackers with Ross Homan and Brian Rolle.

Finally, they had a solid pass rush. That is a recipe for interceptions.

On the other hand, there were a total of 27 fumbles in all of OSU's games last season—OSU fumbled the ball nine times, while their opponent fumbled it 18 times.

OSU recovered 16 fumbles. Therefore, they recovered just over 59 percent of the footballs that hit the ground. That was good luck.

Meanwhile, Iowa's turnover margin was just about even at plus+.15. Also, there were a total of 14 fumbles in all of Iowa's games—three by Iowa, and 11 by their opponents. Iowa recovered a total of four—or 29 percent—of those fumbles. That was bad luck.

In short, I'm not denying that in 2009, Iowa had luck go their way plenty of times. For example, Tyler Sash's "pinball" interception, or the way the way the ball hit Adrian Clayborn in stride after he blocked the punt against Penn State.

Nonetheless, if turnovers do indeed equal turnaround, then this season, the Buckeyes can expect to be on the losing end of the turnover battle. Therefore, they had better hope that Nov. 20 in Iowa City is not a close game.

Iowa Passing Game vs. OSU Secondary

Iowa comes into 2010 with arguably—actually, in my opinion, it's not that arguable—the best group of offensive skill players in the Ferentz era.

They are unquestionably as deep at receiver as they have ever been. They have a senior quarterback that has started 22 games in his career. They also have at least three viable and experienced options at running back.

Meanwhile, Ohio State has six returning starters on defense. One could argue that might mean a slight downturn for Jim Tressel's fifth-ranked scoring defense.

However, the reality is in each of the last five years, OSU has been one of the top ten scoring defenses. That includes 2006, when they returned exactly two starters. In other words, the Buckeyes will have a good defense.

Nonetheless, if this year's defense does have a weakness, it looks to be in the secondary.

To begin with, Ohio State graduated Kurt Coleman, their All-American strong safety. He started for three years, and, like past Buckeye A.J. Hawk, may be one of those rare players that is impossible to replace, even for a team like OSU.

They also lost free safety Anderson Russel, who started five games last season.

Complicating that, OSU's three returning starters—free safety Jermale Hines (who started at the Buck's "star" position last season), and cornerbacks Chimdi Chekwa and Devon Torrence—all had lackluster 2009's by Ohio State standards.

More specifically, all three of them struggled at times in coverage. Between them, they had a total of four interceptions. Kurt Coleman had more picks on his own.

One cannot guarantee that the secondary will continue to struggle in coverage in 2010. That being as it were, if Iowa is to score points on OSU, it will probably come through the air.

Admittedly, for all of his 22 starts, Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi has yet to put together one complete, start-to-finish performance that is entirely worthy of his talents. He will need to do that if Iowa is to beat Ohio State, let alone compete for the Big Ten Championship.

Nevertheless, the 2010 Iowa Hawkeyes do have the offensive weapons to make that possible.

Iowa's Secondary vs. Terrelle Pryor

Terrelle Pryor is extremely talented. There are no questions about that. His most unique talent seems to be his preternatural ability to always be a hair's breadth away from being tackled. He also always seems to find a way to get 10 yards when OSU needs 11.

However, his passing game has always been suspect. His mechanics are occasionally painful to watch, Ohio State's passing game ranked 103rd nationally last season, and after the Purdue meltdown, Jim Tressel essentially relegated Pryor to little more than a pure option quarterback.

At least, until the Rose Bowl.

In the Rose Bowl, he rushed for 72 yards, passed for 266, had a completion percentage of over 60 percent, and threw two touchdowns to one interception.

He had an undeniably great game. However, he had that great game against the 34th-ranked passing defense in the country. Furthermore, it was no more than one great game.

I'm not denying Pryor's abilities. I am also not denying that he has, in all probability, improved tremendously since last season. Finally, I'm not denying that Jim Tressel has tweaked his offense to make it work specifically with Pryor's skill set.

What I am saying is that it is probably a safe bet that his passing game is still a work-in-progress.

Meanwhile, according to Phil Steele , Iowa has the fifth-best secondary in the nation. They also have the third-best defensive line in the nation. This means the secondary will have plenty of rushed—and therefore, ill advised—passes thrown their way.

Therefore, if Iowa can contain Pryor, and keep him in the pocket—and I acknowledge that is a big "if"—they will force him to duel it out with Iowa's secondary and particularly their opportunistic safeties .

If they can do that, I like the Hawks' chances.

Iowa's Best Game Can Beat OSU's Best Game

Ohio State is the fifth winningest college football team of all time and has won five Big Ten titles in a row.

Over the last decade, Ohio State has the fourth most wins of any FBS football team. Over the last 10 years, Ohio State has been to three National Championship games and won one.

In short, they're a really good team, and Coach Jim Tressel runs a very strong program.

The fact is, when it comes to pure talent, most teams just don't stack up against OSU.

Consequently, in order for most teams to beat the Buckeyes, it has as much to do with what the Buckeyes don't do, as what the opposing team does do.

For example, last season, when Purdue upset the Bucks, the Boilers played a great game. But was a great Purdue game really enough for the win? The fact is, Purdue not only played a great game, but Ohio State played a lousy game.

The effort OSU put up against Purdue was decidedly not their "A" game.

With that said, I cannot deny that there have been seasons where Iowa has been in the same boat as Purdue; the only way Iowa had a chance against Ohio State was if the Buckeyes fell flat (coupled, of course, with Iowa playing very well).

I don't feel that is the case this season. I honestly feel that if both Iowa and Ohio State play their best games, Iowa still has a very good chance of winning.

In fact, if the two teams were to play a ten-game series, both playing their absolute best, I truly believe Iowa would win five of the games.

I don't think Iowa will have to depend on random luck or OSU inadequacies in order to be victorious.

In 2010, I think Iowa's talent and ability level are at the same level as Ohio State.

Nevertheless, that is saying quite a bit, as I also don't feel that in 2009, Iowa's offense ever played a full game.

Rather, an extremely strong defense and a timely offense carried the team. It should be noted that a barrage of injuries played a substantial part in that, but injuries are a part of football.

It remains to be seen whether the 2010 Hawkeye offense will carry its own weight. I do think they will need to in order to repeat 2009's performance.

Regardless, the pieces are in place. On paper, this may be the strongest team in the Kirk Ferentz era.

If the 2010 Hawkeyes bring it together, they have what it takes to beat the Buckeyes, win the Big Ten, and maybe even compete for all the marbles.