2010 College Football Predictions: Is Vegas Right on the Teams To Beat?
It's about that time. The Weber grill is ready, the keg is tapped, and I have my Cal Bears shirt on. It is time to break down some college football.
I have handy some Vegas odds for those degenerates out there. Let's measure what they think against what will really go down.
First up, some teams Vegas forgot on their list.
Honorable Mention: USC
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I don't think they make it in the top 50 of schools, but I like to blast USC any time I can.
For years now, the city of Los Angeles has been sullied with the Trojan colors. Being that this city is extremely fair-weather, I will make a prediction that you will see a lot more powder blue and yellow Bruin flags flying on cars.
Vegas Odds: N/A
Mine: 1,000/1 (That feels good!)
Honorable Mention: Kansas
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Largely, Vegas was correct in leaving the Jayhawks off the list. New coach Turner Gill will lead a team that went 5-7 last year. Oh, and he also has to pick a quarterback. I will be generous.
Vegas Odds: N/A
Mine: 500/1
Honorable Mention: Purdue
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The Boilermakers have little to no upside on either side of the ball. I included them here because of DE Ryan Kerrigan. The lone bright spot on a bad team, he sounds motivated.
Vegas Odds: N/A
Mine: 300/1
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
51. Boston College
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First up on the Vegas Odds list is Boston College.
Vegas Odds: 125/1
Vegas does not like BC so much. I can't see why. They had a decent year last year with a mediocre offense. They should improve with another year under QB Dave Shinskie's arm.
Mine: 100/1
50. BYU Cougars
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Vegas Odds: 125/1
Another team further back in the pack than I have them. It must be because of question marks on offense. BYU had a great season last year but will have to fill in the holes left by Max Hall at QB and Harvey Unga at RB.
Mine: 100/1
49. Kansas State
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Vegas Odds: 125/1
That's about right. This team returns very few starters, and they play in a tough conference. I don't see them sniffing the top 25.
Mine: 200/1
48. Arizona
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Vegas Odds: 100/1
On the money again. Not a great team but will definitely make some noise. With USC out of the picture, the Pac-10 is up for grabs.
Mike Stoops is a volatile coach that will squeeze every ounce he can from his team. I wouldn't think a nine-win season is out of the question here.
Mine: 100/1
47. Arizona State
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Vegas Odds: 100/1
I don't get it. You think the Sun Devils improve on a bad year simply because they have a new QB in Steven Threet? I'm not buying.
Mine: 150/1
46. Baylor
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Vegas Odds: 100/1
So all the hopes and dreams come down to the bum knee of Robert Griffin III. This is not exactly making me feel all warm and toasty.
Mine: 120/1
45. California Golden Bears
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Vegas Odds: 100/1
I really wanted to skip this one. Having an affinity for my alma mater, I find it disturbing to write about how awful our team is. We will send out Kevin Riley to throw a few more interceptions this year. Should be fun!
Mine: 150/1
44. Cincinnati
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Vegas Odds: 100/1
Teams will score and score often on this defense. The Bearcats only really return linebacker J.K. Schaffer to the mix.
Granted, Cincinnati can put it in the end zone; I just don't think that is a healthy scenario to have every Saturday. Look for some seriously ugly games.
Mine: 150/1
43. Illinois
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Vegas Odds: 100/1
The Fighting Illini looked to be on the rise in 2008. A Rose Bowl appearance was just want fans wanted. Then, they've sort of just died since.
It is a program that is in transition. They have question marks on the field and on the sidelines. The last two years have been epitomized by coaching uncertainties for Illinois. This year will be no different.
Mine: 150/1
42. Michigan State
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Vegas Odds: 100/1
Kirk Cousins will get the Spartans on the board. I actually don't think the defense will be as bad as many think. Lay it on the line here.
Mine: 80/1
41. North Carolina State
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Vegas Odds: 100/1
One of the better offenses in the ACC and a solid defense. I smell dark horse—to only break the top 30, but still.
Mine: 75/1
40. Northwestern
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Vegas Odds: 100/1
Sad that such a storied program is so mediocre. Last season showed a very capable offense led by Dan Persa. They just give up too many touchdowns to compete.
Mine: 100/1
39. Rutgers
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Vegas Odds: 100/1
These guys love to eat up the non-conference portion of the schedule. They might not have three consecutive winning seasons if they actually played some people. Look for another great record for a so-so team.
Mine: 150/1
38. Texas A&M
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Vegas Odds: 100/1
The Aggies have a nice little quarterback in Jerrod Johnson. The problem comes on the defensive side of the ball. However, they did up their play against good teams last year. I think a year of maturity will be the difference here.
Mine: 80/1
37. Utah Utes
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Vegas Odds: 100/1
The Utes are coming off a great season last year. With that is a bit of betting inflation. They could still go for 10 wins this season.
Mine: 75/1
36. Mississippi
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Vegas Odds: 80/1
Losing Dexter McCluster, one of the better backs to ever play for Ole Miss, will hurt. Houston Nutt will scramble to find yards this season. The offense will struggle a bit more than Vegas lets on.
Mine: 100/1
35. Texas Tech
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Vegas Odds: 80/1
I like the Red Raiders and their defense, especially up front. They are bringing back nose tackle Colby Whitlock to ease the growing pains of the new guys.
Mine: 80/1
34. West Virginia
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Vegas Odds: 80/1
They will miss Jarrett Brown. I understand all that. But when you return the fleet of foot Noel Devine and a solid line—well, you can't ignore that.
Mine: 50/1
33. Missouri
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Vegas Odds: 75/1
Missouri brings back eight starters on both offense and defense. They will improve greatly on their 4-4 conference record, but in the end, it will not be enough to oust Nebraska.
Mine: 60/1
32. South Carolina
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Vegas Odds: 75/1
The Gamecocks return 21 starters. That will be enough experience for Steve Spurrier to get what he wants from his team. Solid veterans on both sides of the ball will help take this team further than people expect.
Mine: 50/1
31. South Florida
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Vegas Odds: 75/1
Here is a conundrum. South Florida returns many of its players but will have to take orders from a new skipper.
Skip Holtz will be directing the ship after Jim Leavitt was dismissed. He will have experience on the field. Maybe a new direction is just what they need.
Mine: 60/1
30. Tennessee
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Vegas Odds: 75/1
The Volunteers will be after blood this season. After being spurned by Lane Kiffin, they have a chip squarely on their shoulders.
The shake-up is far too much for any program to bounce back from in one year. Tennessee will struggle to find any direction.
Mine: 80/1
29. UCLA Bruins
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Vegas Odds: 65/1
This is the year UCLA takes back the city of Los Angeles. The USC debacle came just in time for the Bruins. They bring back Kevin Prince, who showed last year that all he needs is a little time in the pocket.
Mine: 65/1
28. Michigan
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Vegas Odds: 60/1
Rich Rodriguez is so close to being fired it borders on not funny. He will be fine this season because their difficulty of schedule comes at the back end of the year. Losses against Penn State and Ohio State will seal the deal. Never bet on a team dripping with desperation.
Mine: 80/1
27. North Carolina
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Vegas Odds: 60/1
The Tar Heels were doing so well last season before they remembered who they were and lost to Pitt. Look for another great season building on the momentum of last year. I'd buy, but not with my life savings.
Mine: 60/1
26. Clemson
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Vegas odds: 50/1
This is a bit much. C.J. Spiller is gone. Done. Left. He opened up the defense and was a catalyst for their offense. I don't see how they match their success of last year without him.
Mine: 80/1
25. Florida State
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Vegas Odds: 50/1
With a relatively young squad and Jimbo Fisher just trying to right the ship, the Seminoles will be lucky to get to eight wins this season. A bold prediction until you look at their schedule.
Mine: 75/1
24. Pittsburgh
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Vegas Odds: 50/1
Pittsburgh is pretty damned good on both sides of the ball. This program has been fairly consistent under Dave Wannstedt. Look for more of the same.
Mine: 50/1
23. Washington
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Vegas Odds: 50/1
Many times, a college football team is only as good as its quarterback. Well, the Huskies have one of the best in the nation. Jake Locker will bring Washington back to the front of the Pac-10.
Mine: 40/1
22. Georgia Tech
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Vegas Odds: 50/1
So you win the ACC, and then you get to return 14 starters. I don't see what's not to like about this team. I might favor them a bit better than where they are now, but not by much.
Mine: 45/1
21. Notre Dame
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Vegas Odds: 40/1
At least we don't have to stare at Jabba the Weis anymore.
Notre Dame's season could have been so much different last year, losing most of their games by seven points or less. I like the newly hired Brian Kelly to motivate this team back to where it needs to be: permanently in the top 25.
Mine: 40/1
20. Oregon State
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Vegas Odds: 40/1
Oregon State has overachieved the last couple of years. This is a great team that will not win the battle for first in the Pac-10. They ran out of gas against Oregon last year, narrowly missing a trip to the Rose Bowl. The same could happen this year. Sell now.
Mine: 60/1
19. Auburn
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Vegas Odds: 40/1
They may have 16 returning starters this year, but the battle to take snaps will prove too much for Auburn to compete with the likes of Texas.
Mine: 50/1
18. Wisconsin
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Vegas Odds: 40/1
They may have some questions on defense, but it won't matter. When your opponent has John Clay and Wisconsin's kind of running game, you may never see the ball.
Mine: 25/1
17. Georgia Bulldogs
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Vegas Odds: 35/1
They have a great running game. The Bulldogs may even beat the Florida Gators. They just gave up entirely too many points for me to take them seriously. I think a 35 to one shot is about right.
Mine: 35/1
16. Arkansas
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Vegas Odds: 35/1
They can light up the air. I will give them that. But just like Georgia, they have a porous defense that will need to be addressed.
Mine: 35/1
15. Oregon
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Vegas Odds: 35/1
The new class of the Pac-10 will be the Oregon Ducks. There is nothing stopping them from winning the conference. The main problem with national title contention is if the conference does what it always does—beat itself up.
Mine: 20/1
14. LSU Tigers
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Vegas Odds: 25/1
LSU has a great team. Their odds to make it to the national title game will be great this year.
Oh right, Alabama.
Mine: 25/1
13. Penn State
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Vegas Odds: 25/1
A few days ago you could have had the Nittany Lions at 60/1. I really like them there. What a difference a week makes. The defense will be stingy like last year, but the offense has some holes.
Mine: 50/1
12. Iowa Hawkeyes
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Vegas Odds: 20/1
Iowa made some people stand up and take notice last year. I have to agree with Vegas, especially considering their tough games will be safely at home.
Mine: 20/1
11. Miami
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Vegas Odds: 18/1
Well, it's between them and Virginia Tech out east. So the question is why not Miami? With Jacory Harris running things, you have to like their chances. If they decide to play defense, I do too.
Mine: 15/1
10. TCU Horned Frogs
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Vegas Odds: 18/1
Another year, another fight to the finish with Boise State for a BCS bid. This year they may just get revenge on Boise State. Coach Gary Patterson brings back one of his most talented squads.
Mine: 15/1
9. Virginia Tech
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Vegas Odds: 18/1
You always have to like the chances of a great running team. Their defense may look a bit shaky, but their solid line should keep things stable.
Mine: 12/1
8. Nebraska
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Vegas Odds: 15/1
This team is sneaky hot. They have a solid offense with plenty of experience. Although they will miss Ndamukong Suh, Jared Crick and Pierre Allen are ready to fill in.
Mine: 10/1
7. Oklahoma
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Vegas Odds: 15/2
Normally losing a player like Sam Bradford sets you back a bit. It was a good thing for the Sooners that Bradford had some injuries. Landry Jones will step back into the QB role with no issues. I take Vegas on this.
Mine: 15/2
6. Texas Longhorns
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Vegas Odds: 14/1
Just like with Oklahoma, I still like Texas despite losing a once in a generation QB. Garrett Gilbert played well under the lights of the National Championship Game, and he will do well this season. 14/1 is on the money.
Mine: 14/1
5. Florida Gators
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Vegas Odds: 10/1
Florida has just too many people gone for them to be this favored. They will definitely miss the leadership and steadiness Tim Tebow brought.
Mine: 20/1
4. Oklahoma State
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Vegas Odds: 10/1
OSU looks to benefit by subtraction this year. New quarterback Brandon Weeden will fill the only real weak spot they had last year.
Mine: 8/1
3. Boise State
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Vegas Odds: 8/1
The little program that could has become the program that does. This could be the year that the BCS unquestionably gives them respect—maybe if they got rid of their home blue turf.
Mine: 4/1
2. Ohio State
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Vegas Odds: 6/1
This is about right. They are solid, deep, and play eight games at home. The only real reason they are not favorites or even at 4/1 is Alabama.
Mine: 4/1
1. Alabama
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Vegas Odds: 4/1
It may sound like bad odds to be betting the clear favorite this early, but it is not. Alabama could easily be 2/1 favorites as the enter the season. They are quick on both sides of the ball and will threaten to go undefeated.
Mine: 2/1
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
