Wagering on Spots? You Betcha: Three Games To Keep an Eye On

As we look over the schedules of the upcoming season, it is a good time to look at situational spots that will be very favorable or unfavorable for a particular team.

Here are three that stand out to me already that should give extra value on a particular side beyond the matchups.

These are “circle your calendar and keep your powder dry” games because of the spots.  See Spot run, see Spot win.

Texas A&M at Baylor (Nov. 13)

This is a brutal spot for the Aggies in my estimation.  They have to run quite the gauntlet to get through starting a tough roadie at Oklahoma State in an awkward Thursday night ESPN game.

Then they return to the scene of the crime in would-be revenge spot with Arkansas at Jerry’s World after being dismantled and embarrassed last season.

Next they’re at home against a solid Missouri club, play a road game at Kansas where Turner Gill should be rallying the troops for a name win, followed by consecutive home games to Texas Tech and Oklahoma.

These home games should be tough. Texas Tech always play the Ags tough and will be unveiling this newfangled contraption called a defense.  Plus, there is a small chance Oklahoma could be ranked No. 1 in the nation at that point.

In any event, this sequence of games is a roller coaster of rivalries, revenge spots, psychological tests, and good football teams, which denies the Aggies of any real breather before playing at Baylor on the 13th of November.

The Baylor game is also a sandwich spot for the Ags.  Not only will the Aggies be recovering from whatever the outcome the Oklahoma game yields—devastating blowout, narrow heartbreaking loss—or euphoric win, but they will have Nebraska on deck for a home game the very next week after Baylor.

Oh, and following Nebraska is this little Thanksgiving tilt with Texas.

What will the campus be talking about leading up to Baylor?

The previous week’s game against OU or the upcoming slugfests with the storied programs of Nebraska and Texas would be my guess.  It certainly won’t be the hapless Bears.

Don’t get me wrong, the Aggies have a much better football team this year than recently but I think as gamblers we should give the Bears of Baylor a long look in this game as a home underdog.

Plus, last time I checked, the Aggies have to field an offensive line on offense, and, umm, an entire defense, on, you guessed it defense.  In other words, they won’t be playing flag football.

The Bears conversely should be hungry for the Aggies.  The Bears took a woodshed beating from the Aggies last year with no Robert Griffin in the game and so Coach Briles should have this one circled. 

There is no way to say this far in advance whether the line will warrant a bet or not for obvious reasons, but it is a game we should have circled on our calendars as a good spot to play against Texas A&M.  I mean where wouldn’t you play this game?

Stanford at Oregon (Oct. 2)

Stanford upset the Ducks last year as a TD underdog but find themselves in a bad spot heading into Autzen Stadium for this game.  Stanford has to travel across the country to South Bend for big national television game with the Irish just before playing Oregon.

The Irish will be looking for revenge in that game and should be more acclimated to their new offensive and defensive schemes and the physical attitude of Brian Kelly. 

It will be a hard-fought, physical game and rates to be close into the fourth quarter with emotions running high for all 60 minutes.

Right after that game the Cardinal have to travel back to Palo Alto, grab a short week of practice, and then make the short trip to Eugene to play in arguably the toughest place to play in all of college football.  But wait, it gets better.

Guess who is on deck for the Cardinal right after the Oregon Nikes?  The Trojans of USC.

Harbaugh lives for coaching against USC and after SC’s tumultuous off-season, the fiery Stanford coach, who ran up the score last season against the Men of Troy, has to smell blood in the water. 

I have my doubts whether or not he’ll have his kid’s full attention on Oregon or even coach with focus on the Ducks.

Conversely, Oregon heads into this game just after facing Arizona State preceded by a virtual bye week with an FCS opponent, with a roadie AT meager Washington State after Stanford. 

So we get two soft opponents prior to a huge revenge game in Autzen without a look ahead scenario.  Will I be buying a big ticket against Stanford?  Yes, please, if the line is right.

Wisconsin at Iowa (Oct. 23)

The bet boils down to one simple thing really.  Wisconsin plays Ohio State at home the week before the Hawkeyes.  It will be a huge game.  

I would not be surprised to see College Gameday at this venue that week especially if the Badgers are undefeated (they play at Michigan State??) heading into the game.

Wisconsin was bitter after last year's defeat to the Buckeyes as they outgained OSU 368-184 and out first-downed them 22-8 but were the victims of three non-offensive touchdowns that gave them no chance at victory.  Plus, they’ve always despised the Buckeyes.

One thing Ohio State will do is play physical football, and the game in Camp Randall Stadium will be an epic war.  Emotions will be high. 

Win or lose, the Badgers will find themselves in a terrible state of either celebrating the big win or having shattered dreams of ruining Ohio State’s perfect season.

Neither is the type of emotional state of mind you want to have heading to Iowa City to face a disciplined team like the Hawkeyes. 

Iowa plays as physically as anyone in the conference and after the physical and emotional war the week prior against the Bucks, it will be hard for Wisconsin to get up again and pull out a win in Kinnick Stadium. 

This isn’t the NFL, USC, or Alabama we’re talking about. These are amateur athletes.

For those reasons, Wisconsin’s game against Iowa may be a tougher game to win than the home game against a more talented Ohio State team, but I doubt that will be reflected in the line.

Again, there could be other factors at play such as a key injury before this game occurs and the lines makers may not make a mistake here, but it is a game I have circled on the calendar because it’ll be tough for Vegas to make the appropriate line adjustment to reflect the spot.

And that’s when guys like us need to pounce.

From the FanTake blog:  Fading Las Vegas

Follow on Twitter:  @FadingLasVegas