The Pan Report: Jones Vs. Matyushenko Preview

Jon ‘Bones’ Jones (10-1) will face Vladimir ‘The Janitor’ Matyushenko (24-4) in an apparently strange duel that will headline the second UFC broadcast on Versus this Sunday.

Style-wise, both Jones and Matyushenko are formally trained as wrestlers. Other than their styles and the fact their base salaries (excluding bonuses, sponsorships, etc.) are similar, comparisons to be drawn between the two end there. Jones is light on his feet, has good hands, great elbows (either on his feet or on the ground) and can take opponents down almost at will.

The Janitor is a tough and gritty fighter who doesn’t back away from a challenge. He is amazingly constant every time he enters a contest, as demonstrated by evenly distributed wins (seven by KO, seven by submission and 10 by UD) and losses (two by (T)KO and two by UD).

The fight has been branded as ‘youth vs. experience”. To say that Jones and Matyushenko are at different points in their respective careers is a euphemism. Jones has been aggressively climbing the ranks through a series of impressive wins since making his UFC debut in August 2008. As for Matyushenko, his story doesn’t unfold the same way.

Although the 22 year-old Bones suffered an unfortunate DQ loss to Matt Hamill last December due to illegal elbows, he bounced back in spectacular fashion, throwing a vicious elbow from Brandon Vera’s defensive guard that broke a few bones. His unorthodox style, timing and incredibly effective takedowns make him an unmistakable LHW contender with an ever-growing fan base.

And yet Bones will be facing Vladimir Matyushenko. The 39 yr-old has been fighting since 1997 and made his debut with the UFC in June 2001, earning a UD win against Yuki Kondo. During his first stint in the big show (2001-2003), consisting of five contests, he lost a UD to Tito Ortiz for the UFC’s LHW belt and got KO’ed by Arlovski in the second round of their bout at UFC 44. He also won a UD over Pedro Rizzo along the way.

The Janitor fought for a while under the IFL banner, earning that promotion’s LHW championship and defending it, before jumping on the Affliction bandwagon and getting TKO’ed by Antonio Rogerio ‘Lil Nog’ Nogueira. Eight months later, he returned to the UFC and earned a UD victory over Igor Pokrajak on the undercard at UFC 103. He’s since added a split decision over Eliot Marshall.

As journeymen go, Matyushenko is perhaps one of the toughest and most respected out there. His reported payouts neighboring 25K (excluding bonuses, sponsor, etc.) show the promotion values his talents. Oddly enough, reported payouts for Bones’ last fights are lower (20K) than those given to Matyushenko.

If betting lines give some indication about pay scales following this bout (Jones -600 vs. +400 Matyushenko), Jones should leap over his opponent. With the promise he shows, he will eventually get paid as much as other top contenders. But for the time being, Jones needs a decisive win over the Janitor before he can aspire to such lucrative heights.

Due to Jones’ incredible 10-inch + reach (!) advantage over The Janitor, it is expected Matyushenko will attempt to neutralize Jones’ stand-up by taking the fight to the ground as early as possible. There, his positioning game is his forte. As to whether he’ll be able to take the fight to the mat against a fighter of Jones’ caliber, common wisdom rates that as unlikely.

Nevertheless, Matyushenko’s grit could push Jones’ cardio to its limit, as it appeared to be the case against Stephan Bonnar at UFC 94. Or not. Everything will hinge on Jones’ ability to land strikes/kicks and his capacity to defend against Matyushenko’s wrestling. It is plausible Jones wins by stoppage as early as round two.

Paradoxically, those inclined to bet on Matyushenko should persist with that option. The expected payout for his victory, combined with his lengthy and tangible experience, make such a wager a real bargain. It remains a probabilistic enigma as to why The Janitor isn’t given the same odds to defeat Jones (+400) as James Toney (+350) is to defeat Randy Couture…

The remainder of the main card goes as follows:

MW bout between Yushin Okami (24-5) and Mark Muñoz (8-1): Okami is the favourite (-210) against Muñoz (+165). Okami’s skills are much more developed, and unless Muñoz stuns him with his heavy hands, it is expected Okami wins this one. Hopefully, he avoids a UD victory and manages to make it spectacular.

WW fight between Jake Ellenberger (22-5) and John Howard (14-4): Ellenberger is a slight favourite (-170) against Howard (+140). Ellenberger by UD.

Last, but not least, the LW bout pitting Tyson Griffin (subbing for an injured Joe Stevenson) to Takanori Gomi. It appears Gomi’s unsuccessful UFC debut against Kenny Florian last March substantially damaged his reputation as an MMA all-star. Even the news of Griffin replacing Stevenson didn’t dampen fans’ enthusiasm to wager against the former Pride champion. Griffin will be walking in the Octagon a heavy favourite (-300) against Gomi (+220). Griffin by TKO in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Lines by Betus.com

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