Is Shonn Greene a Top-15 Fantasy Football Pick?

After last season’s playoff success, in which he piled up 263 yards and two touchdowns in wins over Cincinnati and San Diego, Shonn Greene began climbing up draft boards in the minds of fantasy owners. Then the Jets signed LaDainian Tomlinson rather than bringing Thomas Jones back. That only strengthened the case for fantasy owners. While LT may still have a little left in the tank, it seems like he’s closer to E than Jones is.

While I like the second-year back out of Iowa, I am not as high on Greene as most are. Mock Draft Central  has an ADP of 14 for Greene, which seems a bit high. Personally I don’t even have him that high among running backs (click to see my RB rankings ) let alone all players.

He is going ahead of guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Cedric Benson, and Ryan Grant.

I can see passing on the QBs since there are plenty of good options later in the draft, but an unproven running back over Moss and Wayne, who you can basically pencil in for 1,000+ yards and 10 TDs? I don’t see how you do that based on a handful of games. Even guys like Grant and Benson, who have proved they can contribute for a full season without getting hurt, seem like wiser decisions to me.

The Jets do have an excellent offensive line and play smashmouth football, but don’t expect them to be as run-heavy this year. Mark Sanchez is older and wiser. Plus, the Jets brought in Santonio Holmes to help the Jets have a more balanced offensive attack.

Taking a guy 14th overall in a fantasy draft who has just two career touchdowns is risky, especially when he caught as many passes during the regular season as you did. It’s not like I would expect him to improve dramatically in the pass-receiving department. Even in his one breakout year of college, he caught just eight passes.

LaDainian Tomlinson will catch the ball out of the backfield, and with 138 career rushing touchdowns look for LT to get the call at the stripe. So basically, you’re looking at a yardage machine who won’t get many receiving yards and is unlikely to crack double-digit TDs. That doesn’t sound like a top 15 pick to me.

Prediction: 1,280 total yards (1,180 rushing), 6 TDs, 12 catches

What do you expect from Shonn Greene?

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