HäMMëR's Best Guess: 2010 Detroit Lions Offense
Soon the Detroit Lions will trim their roster down to the 53-man limit, and during that process, Lions fans will become familiar with the new offensive starters, and those 25 offensive players who will comprise the 2010 Detroit Lions opening-day roster.
Two days ago I offered my best guess as to who might make the cut defensively, and today I’ll share my thoughts regarding those who might make the final cut on offense.
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Following the 2008 winless campaign, Lions fans were at the boiling point.
Humiliated. Embarrassed. Shamed.
Time for some encouragement from the great Vincent Lombardi:
“The greatest accomplishment is not in never falling, but in rising again after you fall.”
It was glaringly obvious that the four-time NFL championship franchise (1935, 1952, 1953, and 1957) was in desperate need of talent on both sides of the football.
In April 2009, recently promoted general manager, Martin Mayhew, and new head coach, Jim Schwartz, made 10 selections for the Detroit Lions in the NFL Draft.
Matthew Stafford’s last-second game heroics in the 2009 win at home over long-time rival Cleveland displayed the epitome of “rising after having fallen”, when Stafford picked himself up off the Detroit turf and led his team to victory with no time remaining on the game clock.
To this point, Mayhew’s defensive selections seem to have been more effective than his offensive selections, but another year under Schwartz, Cunningham, and Linehan should afford a better look going forward.
The following chart outlines the performance of the 2009 Detroit Lions in several offensive categories. I have also included my personal goals for team production by the end of the 2010 season:
Detroit Lions 2009 Offensive Production | HäMMëR's Goal | ||||
Offensive Category | Rank | Game Avg | Total | Game Avg | Total |
Total Yards: | 26th | 299 | 4,784 | 397.5 | 6,360 |
Rushing: | 24th | 101 | 1,616 | 135 | 2,160 |
Passing: | 21st | 198 | 3,168 | 262.5 | 4,200 |
Scoring: | 27th | 16.4 | 262 | 24.4 | 390 |
If the 2010 Detroit Lions are able to match my production goal for them, they would likely have a top-10 overall offense. In 2009 production rankings, a 397.5 yards per game average would have been good enough for third-best in the NFL. Additionally, 135 yards rushing, 262.5 average yards per game passing, and 24.4 points scored per game would all have been top-10 category producers in 2009.
If the 2010 Detroit Lions team is to reach their lofty goal of reaching the playoffs, they will need to dramatically increase their offensive production, as the 2009 offensive production only contributed to two wins. I’m aware the defense wasn’t very good (last, mostly), and I’m painfully aware of how lousy the Lions were on special teams (with the exception of Lions fan favorite Zack Follett).
As noted in my previous article, HäMMëR's Best Guess: 2010 Detroit Lions Defense, the 2009 final roster accounted for 25 players on offense and 25 players on defense to go along with the three special teams players.
With that in mind, I’ll focus on just the offensive side of the ball and how the position battles will “squeeze” some players off the 2010 Detroit Lions roster.
The final 2009 Detroit Lions roster was comprised of ten offensive linemen, three quarterbacks, four running backs, five wide receivers, and three tight ends. I will use nine offensive linemen and four tight ends when allotting the cast of my prognosticative 2010 Detroit Lions opening-day roster on offense (as of July 23, 2010).
Unlike the 2010 Detroit Lions defensive line, the 2010 Detroit Lions offensive line will remain largely unchanged with the exception of Rob Sims entering the lineup as the team’s new starting left guard. I think the only other newcomer to the offensive line in 2010 will be 4th Round selection Jason Fox.
Baring injury, I see an opening-day starting offensive line of LT Jeff Backus, LG Rob Sims, C Dominic Raiola, RG Stephen Peterman, and RT Gosder Cherilus.
A training camp battle will emerge for the right tackle position between Jon Jansen and incumbent Gosder Cherilus. I think that Gosder will be the opening-day starter, but should he or Jansen falter, expect to see Jason Fox get at shot at right tackle.
I think the lads from Texas Tech, Manny Ramirez and Dylan Gandy, round out the offensive line, while Dan Gerberry is placed on the practice squad.
Matthew Stafford is firmly entrenched as the team’s starting quarterback, and the offseason addition of former 49ers QB Shaun Hill only strengthens the team’s depth at a critical position. Having a back-up quarterback with a winning record and recent winning starting experience could prove tremendously beneficial should Stafford succumb to injury during his sophomore campaign.
I see this as Drew Stanton’s final year with the team as he transitions into the coaching ranks post-NFL. I expect the selection of a developmental QB prospect in the late rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft.
As a youth, I remember how excited I was when the Detroit Lions made Billy Sims the number one selection in the 1980 NFL Draft. I watched with amazement Billy’s accomplishments while at the University of Oklahoma, as he ran over the competition from the Big 8 Conference (yes, back when running the wishbone offense was en vogue).
If Jahvid Best is able to match Sims’ rookie NFL achievements, the 2010 Detroit Lions should be standing in tall cotton.
Starting all 16 games in 1980, Billy Sims carried the ball 313 times for 1,303 yards and had 51 receptions totaling 621 yards. Sims’ 1980 production of 1,924 all-purpose yards was good enough for third-most in the league. Billy Sims was also named the 1980 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and was selected to his first of three pro bowls.
Heading into the 2010 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions were looking to upgrade a legitimate speed threat at the running back position, and that’s exactly what the front office did when they selected former Cal RB Jahvid Best at the bottom of the first round. Since Kevin Smith’s 2009 season ended with a gruesome knee injury, the Lions had to hedge their bets and made a modest move in trading up with the Vikings to acquire Best’s services.
Quite frankly, I hope the trade bites Rick Spielman right square in the keister!
Jahvid Best appears to be the 2010 Detroit Lions opening-day starter at running back, with Kevin Smith and Maurice Morris backing up Best. Jerome Felton should return in an expanded fullback/flex-tight end role. I think Aaron Brown will be lost in the final cut down.
The 2010 Detroit Lions need to rush as a team for more than 2,000 yards, and if Jahvid Best can account for the lion’s share of those yards, he may indeed best Sims’ rookie achievements.
As a position group, I wasn’t particularly impressed with the 2009 Detroit Lions receiving corps. As teams focused coverage on Calvin Johnson, other receivers were unable to generate production for a myriad of reasons: poor route running, inability to get open, and dropped passes.
Bryant Johnson never emerged as the “number 2” WR he was billed to be heading into the 2009 season. Dennis Northcutt wasn’t overly impressive and neither was rookie WR/KR Derrick Williams (case of the “dropsies”).
Scott Linehan made the trip west to pitch and sign a “WR2” for the 2010 season, the former player he coveted: Nate Burleson. Instead of getting a receiver “just like” Nate Burleson, they went out and got the original.
My opening-day starters at wide receiver will be Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson.
I think there will be a real shuffle at the WR position by the end of training camp, and I expect it to be “cleaned” in the same fashion that befell the defensive backfield.
I think that Bryant Johnson will be released on the final cut and the team will keep Derrick Williams in his stead, the front office pinning their hopes on a brighter future with “D-Will” than the 29-year-old Bryant Johnson. I also think “Mr. Irrelevant” Tim Toone will win a return job and be considered the team’s fifth wide receiver. I think the team will keep Brian Clark as the Lions third wide receiver, partially because of his ability to play special teams.
In just two seasons, the Detroit Lions may have taken a position group once considered a weakness and turned it into a strength.
There will be stout competition at the tight end position during training camp, and there may be some real surprises in terms of who does or does not make the final 53-man roster.
I believe Tony Scheffler will start along with either Will Heller or Brandon Pettigrew, whichever is healthy. Linehan’s double-TE sets could lend to the tight end position being afforded four slots on the final roster. At present I have Scheffler, Heller, Pettigrew and Dan Gronkowski making the roster at TE.
The club may opt not to allocate four slots to the tight end position, and might count Jerome Felton as the team’s fourth TE. If that is the case, Gronkowski may be relegated to the practice squad along with Richard Dickson and Jake Nordin.
I’m looking to see if the addition of Rob Sims at left guard will yield the results of running the ball and protecting the passer that has been sorely lacking for years. The offensive line must congeal prior to kickoff on Sunday, September 12, 2010 if the Lions are to see their win total improve over last season.
The additions of WR Nate Burleson, TE Tony Scheffler, and RB Jahvid Best should provide for some exciting moments for Detroit Lions fans during the 2010 campaign. If Best comes remotely close to mirroring his collegiate production, Lions fans could be hailing another NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Tony Scheffler and Jahvid Best in tandem with Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, and Brandon Pettigrew could create particularly difficult coverage assignments for prospective defenders, leaving the Detroit Lions on the winning side of a favorable mismatch. One has to imagine that no NFL defense will be able to cover all of those weapons all of the time.
Now that right there is reason for hope, Lions fans!
I think the 2010 Detroit Lions possess the talent required to produce a top-10 overall NFL offense. If they are able to match the production goals I have set for them, they will be a top-10 offense in 2010.
The time is now to match players with production. In a few weeks we’ll know exactly which ones didn’t produce enough, and those who will be required to produce even more on the field of play in 2010.
Time to rise after the fall.
HäMMëR
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